Last night's showdown went quite well from angles perspective. The second half of the game ended up being chalky hits which killed the upside of what I built but became profitable nonetheless. The goal today is similar to that of a powerball ticket -> get 5 spots plus the captain correct and you win. I saw an explanation earlier in the week that made a lotta sense though; if you only need to get 5 spots right, it is much easier than 6. Guessing 4 spots right is easier than 5, etc. So lets see what we can lock in through this writeup to increase our odds on a perfect lineup.
Monday Night Football Salaries vs Usage
This chart is a bit awkward with Dallas experiencing a shift in QB as well as a perceived "give up" mentality that could lead to shifts in usage beyond this chart. Infact that makes my comfort level a bit uneasy in projections and all until we find out more info. Until then, we do know that Lamb typically carries elite usage, even moreso than Mixon over the past 5 weeks. He's still priced as such even though getting him the ball will be a question mark. His QB and a couple TEs are all in the dead zone, while Turpin and Brooks are popping up in the dart zone.
Vegas Expectations vs My Projected Scores for each team
Because of how Dallas has performed, my projections have this game projected over the Vegas projection. However we know that Cooper Rush hasn't played all of those games. The general sentiment could be that Dallas lays an egg similar to that of the Philly game as a result, so this means that the more Dallas players you have, the more unique your lineup will be (for better or worse). No one in their right minds believes Dallas will win, and only a few think they will score any points. If following Vegas projections, there are is opportunity for 2 tds for Dallas somehow someway.
Snap Counts
This showdown is special because of all the variation in personnel on each team. The goal is to find which players have the most locked in workloads. Tolbert has played more snaps than Lamb lately so I'd suggest he has the most locked in role as WR2. Metchie seems like he is most likely to lose the most snaps with Nico coming back. Woods may also see a decrease.
Game Scripts for Cowboys vs Texans
Because of the Dallas defense getting ran through on a weekly basis, we are seeing something similar to what we saw with the Chargers last night- where Houston should be able to run or pass without much resistance. We do know that some key players are returning in the defense, but their impact is yet to be determined. Dallas on the other hand should be in more of a passing situation when they score touchdowns (vs rushing), but Houston has been top 5 in both categories so good luck to them.
Defense vs Receivers
For Dallas, the two primary WRs on the team will have the best chances of moving the ball, which aligns well with how we think we should be building - Tolbert and/or Ceedee. The TE spot looks a bit tougher so hoping to avoid going there. Houston on the other hand will have Tank and Nico in good spots, in addition to Mixon with elite usage. He may be super chalky at captain and flex, but since his usage is so high, there may not be much choice but to eat that chalk unless youre playing for an injury to occur early in the game.
Redzone Targets
Tolbert is going to be one of my favorite plays today, but perhaps a low consideration could go to KaVontae Turpin, with the hopes that he catches a long shot touchdown at his price. Guys this deep in the pecking order are more likely to practice with the backup QB anyways so just maybe he and Cooper have a connection by now.
How to play Dallas in tonights showdown
No one wants to play Dallas, but we have to remember that there is still a requirement to play at least one play here. Therefore I anticipate that there will be a higher rate of 5-1 Houston teams tonight than usual, meaning that if you wish to get to 2-4 Cowboys, you will start to gain some uniqueness. Rico Dowdle seems to have the top odds of a captain play. This is direct leverage on Mixon captain lineups as he projects to be the highest owned captain. The way I see it, the only way that Dallas covers the spread is if they run the ball and play defense, to keep the score under the projected total. In that world, playing the kicker and defense with Dowdle would also make sense, and maybe you can get to Lamb or Tolbert as well, although Ferguson has the leverage in the flex. It is a very low probability path but something to consider in large field tournaments.
How to play Houston in tonights showdown
The most probable outcome is that Mixon gets the ball and Houston controls the clock because he has the ball, with his high usage + the defense allowing points to the RB. The dilemma in doing so means that you join 30% of the field and then lock up most of your salary in one play, causing the unique factor to shrink drastically in the event he fails to reach value. Therefore Stroud becomes more interesting at captain, in addition to Nico who both have captain leverage. The defense does also have leverage at the captain position tonight for Houston.
DFS Optimal Lineup for tonight
This is what my optimizer gave me, surprisingly. Dallas defense at captain means somehow they project to be better than expected. I normally have to make a couple swaps to this lineup including at captain to make it make sense. Will try to update this once I figure out who I wish to boost before lock so check back in the hour!
Updated:
I boosted a few projections but couldnt qute get rid of some of these guys. Schultz in the revenge narrative now showing up here but not necessarily an easy matchup. Nonetheless Ill run it and see.
Paths to Leverage
The highest owned play on the slate is Joe Mixon, who is in a good situation and highest odds of success and highest projection. Nico is projecting the 2nd highest owned captain. But the question now is, how does Mixon fail?
Dallas defense stacks the box, keeps the game close and low scoring/controls the clock
Injury
Houston passing game
Who benefits the most if Mixon fails?
Dallas Defense
CJ Stroud + pass catcher
Dallas kicker
Dallas RB
Backup RB for Houston
In the optimal, Cowboys, Stroud, Dell and Pierce all show up as viable. Pierce is a super dart play that could get garbage time and do well for Mixon lineups too. Dell also pivots off Nico for the ultimate galaxy brain move too. However I am going to build my silver bullet entry with this ultimate leverage in mind. You will find me close to the bottom or close to the top tonight, not in the middle.
Player Pool for DFS Value Plays
This is the range of plays that I think make the most sense for value. Good luck!
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