Tonight we dine! Saturday night super speedway, right before the playoffs! I love a race with a little carnage as that is where the leverage tends to excel! There are 160 laps, which provide us with opportunity for 112 dominator points and roughly 70+ place differential point upside, depending on how this race goes. Place differential is important. Finishing position is important. Wreck avoidance is important but unpredictable. Starting position closer to the back is typically ideal as well when half the drivers get wiped out.
Updated: 4:08 CST
So there was no practice and weather might be a factor in the actual race. For now, this is our odds on view of things. Bubba Wallace may be the chalk. Maybe good chalk actually as he's floating as the highest value. Need to watch his ownership though as its up there. Theres no such thing as a guarantee in this type of race! Starting that far back does make it intruiging though if he does finish in the top half of the race.
Chase Elliot leads in odds, and starts in the front. There is a path to where he could absorb a chunk of those dominator points so he is in play to me despite starting up front.
Daniel Suarez coming in as the leverage at 2% for his odds. I may build 1 lineup with him just to play my charts, but I absolutely think he is low owned for good reasons, when starting so close to the front.
Not a ton to go off of yet but check back for updated ownership. Ty Gibbs starting 23rd with 7% ownership has to be noticed.
So where is the chalk? I underlined the highest ownership. David Ragan being the most shocking. He finished well at another super speedway this year (Daytona), but both him and Hamlin are two guys I'm eyeing for pivots early on.
In this update, I circled the guys who are pivotable viable options based on where they start and their ownership vs the underlined chalk. I doubt that all chalk fails. Finding the ones that do fail and jumping off that ship is clutch in gpp though.
Good luck!
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