Taking a quick look over today's race and seeing what type of results we should expect. Quite a few laps so I recommend looking at dominator potential, which I have on the following table.
Up top, it seems that Blaney, Busch and Truex are all getting the attention. Not so much for Logano and Hamlin. Practice wise, Buscher also stands out a bit at the lower end, who had a good practice.
Truex is likely going to be the highest owned play based on his optimal percentage, as he is the most optimal play we have. Perhaps we can find a path to pairing him with someone like Logano or Hamlin. The problem with Logano may be in his price point but both him and Hamlin are good at these types of tracks.
Harvick is a name that doesnt come up often. Hasnt done much - overdue? Speaking of, I decided to look at last year's optimal lineup
2021 Optimal
2 or 3 long shots made the lineup, likely due to place differencial. Almirola started 22nd and somehow finished 1st at 77-1 odds. That tells me that long shot odds are in place. Kyle Busch was like 5-1 odds and finished last with -28 pts due to starting on the pole. Maybe this is a coincidence but I have been contemplating taking todays 11 and 12 starting positions (Blaney and Logano) - it was optimal last year, why not :)
2020 Optimal
Contrary to 2021, it seems that the two top favorites did well with Hamlin and Keslowski starting up front, high odds and scoring highest on the slate that year. Of course it still came with 2 or 3 guys with long win odds in the lineup. In both cases, the salary was mostly used up towards the optimal so taking note of that. We likely see a lot of dupes on top of the leaderboard today as a result.
Ill keep on digging on this data and update this page soon. Sending this out for now in order for you to make your own hypothesis based on what my data points are showing. Good luck!
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