Nascar is in Las Vegas today. I'm taking a look at the angles that make the most sense to get contrarian to the field. Chase Elliot is out with a leg injury so that's one less elite driver in the field. Lets see what we have left.
Situations and Odds vs Salary
Kyle Busch is on a tear right now and his odds and price reflect that well. Byron looks a little cheap for his odds as well, but unfortunately he is going to come with ownership. With these prices, it forces a long shot cheap dart to work out if you want to play the odds as is. Ironically enough that makes Austin Cindric look a bit underowned for his price, granted the value isnt quite there with him.
In terms of guys who are in position to move up, Daniel Suarez is best equipped for that, yet theres no leverage in playing him. Ross Chastain and Demmy Hamlin both show some leverage in that category.
I'm also looking at practice results and seeing Harrison Burton is starting in 35th place but had some success moving up in practice so hes intruiging just like Chris Buscher. Ryan Preece is showing low ownership with practice success too.
For Dominators, Kyle Larson looks like the best bet to lead laps per his history + starting position of 6th. He does have to get around Logano and Blaney to achieve that. Both have shown success in leading laps here in the past.
Estimated points
Based on the last 5 years, we see that place differential points are quite high so having a few starting in the back may be worth while. 180ish dom points are also out there for the taking if you think someone leads a chunk of the laps. I'm leaning towards taking one, possibly two of the potential doms in this race. As I reflect back to the
Leverage
Most people will avoid the top 10 drivers and so these guys are going to be low owned with decent risk involved. An intruiging name I will consider is Josh Berry here as he starts in the back and appears to be going low owned for his odds.
Last year's optimal
One thing I want to note is that there are no dominators in this lineup. I thought that was interesting because some metrics say that you should play a dom or two, but this may be also a result of good drivers starting in the mid and rear.
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