Someone on twitter asked me about the winning lineups in NBA, where I havent been paying a ton of attention lately. This sparked my interest now that we are heading to game 5 of 7. That sounds like 3 opportunities ahead to use what we know from the past. First, let me show you how the optimal lineups have looked below:
Game 1 (6-2-2022)
The characteristics of this lineup from the captain perspective:
2-4 stack
L 108-120
$300 salary remaining
2 bench players total (1 from each team)
Unfortunately we cant tell capt ownership in this case as I dont have that but Curry is likely the highest owned captain selection.
No players projected under 15 minutes of play time in the lineup
Value was 4.4x or more for each entry
Only 1 player has a ceiling below 40 pts (37.53)
All players show a FPPM > 0.9 pts
Game 2 (6-5-2022)
4-2 stack
W 107-88
$400 salary remaining
2 bench players total (1 from each team)
Capt Ownership 2%
No players projected under 24 minutes in this lineup
Value was 4.1 or more for each player
All players show a ceiling >45 pts
All players show a FPPM>0.9 pt
Game 3 (6-8-2022)
2-4 stack
L 100-116
$900 salary remaining
0 bench players
Capt Ownership 6.7%
No players projected under 20 minutes
Value as 4.5 or more for each player
All players have a ceiling > 47 pts
All players have FPPM > 0.9
Game 4 (6-10-2022)
3-3 stack
L 97-107
$100 salary remaining
1 bench player
Captain Ownership 4%
No player projected under 15 minutes
Value has been 4.7 or higher for each player
A players have a ceiling > 39 pts
All players have FPPM > 1
Heres a summary after 4 games so far stat wise. Pretty much avoid the red unless we know someone is going to get more playing time.
Summary:
4-2 stacks have panned out more often than not. The losing team was also in the captain spot 3 of the 4 games so far
Curry and Tatum are not slam dunk plays. 50% of the time they are both in the optimals together, but are the highest owned no doubt.
When Curry is in the optimal, Klay is not
When Tatum is in the lineup, Brown is not
Two of the above mentioned plays are in every lineup so far
It is worth making sure your player picks are tied to players who produce on a per minute basis.
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