I am likely going to spend the next 2 weeks (as time permits) looking back at 2023 in order to look ahead at the 2024 season. I pulled the top 100 optimal lineups each week for every main slate on Draftkings to get the insights that the other sites aren't going to give you. If you want to achieve different results, it starts in the research. I will continue to add insights up to the 1st week of the 2024 season.
2023 Total Points vs Average Salary
I color coded this to first understand what positions were responsible for most of the points last year. If we only focus in on the names who scored 300 or more points over the course of the year (main slate only), you will find 10 QBs in this list. This is confirmation that in Best Ball, you will have the most opportunity to circle back and get a QB. There were 10 QBs, 6 WRs and 1 RB who were reliable for that top tier floor.
If we want to look a bit deeper, Dak to Ceedee was the ideal stack on main slate. Hurts to AJ, Tua to Tyreek, Purdy to CMC, Goff to St Brown, and then some potential naked QBs appear to have put up the better numbers over the course of the year. One thing to note is that some teams did play on prime time more often and therefore did not get a chance to put up more points on this chart (aka the Chiefs).
Most Optimal Players on Main Slate
Kyren Williams made the optimal the most often in the main slate, followed by Nico and Ceedee. Then there was a fall off to Njoku and the rest. Based on the shading, Ceedee made it from his sheer upside. The line indicates the average price for those optimal plays.
20 Point Games
This is definitely a passing league, as WRs put up 20 point+ performances over 5 times as often as WRs. The TE position took a massive dip with the average score being 6.2 points, and only 39 times last year where a TE took 20 points. Who did this the most often?
WRs
The top tier is quite clear. Names like Aiyuk, Ridley, Samuel, and Moore look like they were a bit lower priced plays in general for their production. I am seeing that those guys all scored more than Metcalf and Lockett did last season combined. Waddle also on the lower end, in part due to injury.
Updated this per special request: adding the games played bar to highlight which WRs did more with less, like JJ and Tank Dell. Noah Brown also interesting in late round best ball drafts if he is still in Dallas.
TE
Kittle actually had more 20 pt performances than the others last year. McBride also showed up with a super low average cost, while everyone else including a higher priced Kelce didnt do a whole lot last year.
RB
The SF offense was simply good last year as CMC led all running backs by a wide margin. Breece Hall is only a few years in and I think he will continue with high output games while healthy. Surprised to see Josh Jacobs and Jonathon Taylor so low on the production list.
QBs
Quarterbacks tend to have a higher floor and so I will pay more attention to players who scored 30 or more at this position. CJ Stroud flashed upside last year and so now that he has more weapons, just maybe he goes top tier this year. Anthony Richardson has the potential to be up there with the top tier if he plays the whole season. At least he was on track for it.
Skill Position 30 Pt games
Not every player is capable of this type of upside. One name of surprise is Adam Thielen who somehow put up 30 points 3 times. I will double check what games those were as that is strange to me. Also noting that Keenan Allen got to 4 30 point games with LAC in 13 games.
Week 1 2023
Since this writeup ended up a bit messy, continue onto the above link for a week 1 breakdown and insights.
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