Last week I tried to put all my analysis on one page, in order to make it easier, but I think that also made it difficult come Monday night to track things. This week I will try and cut it back in half to prevent data overload. But I will also try and work towards a summary as well for those looking for picks. That will take some time.
This writeup is a walk through of my process of finding leverage points, using my dashboard data and spreadsheets. It is essentially my first look as I write these items so you get the raw thoughts from the research in a step by step manner. HWG.
Bottom line up front:
Lineups are likely to stack 4 Vikings and include Jefferson and Sam Darnold. How do we leverage this? I am only playing Aaron Jones, Kupp, and Stafford at captain in any lineup I build tonight. Aaron Jones ownership might be on the rise though so watch out!
Salary vs Expectations
The starting point for me is to look back at the past 5 weeks of workloads and place it against a trendline to see value for the price. Justin Jefferson has had the best of the workloads, but is also priced up there with Kyren as one of the top priced and owned plays. To me, my first read is to play one, fade the other for the sake of the lineup. Aaron Jones is also not far away in price, next to Darnold who is projecting to be owned in 61% of lineups.
Then we fall to the 40% range with Stafford, which then points to Tutu Atwell and Parkinson as values for their price point. Gonna disregard that Cam Akers is on here because he sucks, but he is showing on the cheap end of punt value if you think he gets enough touches to fall in the endzone.
Vegas Expectations
This game is projected by me to go over its total slightly, and if that happens, it is likely through some passing game working out when the total is 50 points. I also project Minnesota for 4 touchdowns and the Rams for roughly 3 at 22 points. Surely one of these teams will over / under perform but it at least gives us a goal, since I also have the Vikings covering the spread today.
Defense vs Receivers
Holes in the receiving game matter because most times they become offensive targets when the QB and OC are good enough to spot them. The Rams are facing the number 1 pass defense in the league, BUT the most obvious funnel they have is to WR1. Kupp is back so that could be an interesting welcome back if he can go off tonight while folks are not on him. Check the touts to see his expected condition though. TE is about average so Parkinson is also in play but everything else is locked up. Minnesota is facing the 24th worst pass defense in DVOA, which is generally bad, but looking at their worst defensive points for receptions, its at TE and RB. It is a bit tougher to funnel to one play at the bottom because quite frankly, anyone above average could end up making plays when the whole defense is below average. So then we will rely on leverage at points like this.
Snaps
Filtering out the bottom of the barrel, I see super dart plays in CJ Ham at 400/TE, Ty Chandler, and Hunter Long, all under 1000. The only time I would recommend a play like that is when you wish to jam em in as your means of taking all the top chalk to leverage your build. I havent seen any work out that way this season yet, but they will happen eventually.
LAR Stacks
If you believe that the Rams provide the most value at captain with a stack,Stafford and Kupp both show as captain leverage (greater than 1), but not flex leverage (less than 0.8) so that is an intriguing way to start a lineup today. Stafford has single digit captain ownership expectations although that might go up by lock. Kyren Williams is the chalkiest of the captains on the rams side and despite his usage, I feel more inclined to get away from him than most but we will see how this feels when putting money behind it. The list of players that the Rams are expected more points from is deep so I am also inclined to try and get to 4 rams, maybe Kupp, Stafford, Parkinson + 1 more and go bombs away.
MIN Stacks
This season I have shifted my personal strategy away from the 'chalk upside lineups with a dart play' build into having a lineup that simply leverages away from the top owned play at captain. This week, that would be Justin Jefferson, the top owned captain roster spot. The extra leverage point happens when you fade that position entirely. This likely works out 50% of the time, maybe a lil less, but when it does, you are likely to cash. Knowing this, I will definitely not play Justin Jefferson at captain, but potentially not at all in favor of those who benefit if he fails.
Aaron Jones or Ty Chandler? (Rushing tds instead of passing ones), or passing TDS to RB
Johnny Mundt - TE catching 1 or 2 TDS randomly instead of Justin Jefferson?
Minn Kicker (FGs instead of touchdowns?)
Rams WR1 / QB -> if game script favors Minn geting ahead, just maybe the Rams turn to passing mode as the game unfolds, which pairs well with number 1 on this list.
Good luck!
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