I am going to slow build this week in a slightly different path than usual. It is Friday afternoon at the time of beginning this writeup and in an effort to reduce over-leveraging the field, I am going to start the writeup without any focus on ownership or leverage. These visuals will moreso focus on situation first, value second and by Saturday night or Sunday morning, we start to add the leverage views. This will help us determine what we like vs what are pivot positions. Lets just see how this goes. Follow my twitter feed for updates and to provide feedback as well!
A side note, I am likely to open up a discord channel with roughly 10 members to see how that goes. This is to allow for more discussion and questions as they relate to the visuals. Ping me if you have interest in being in the initial group. Once I get it organized I will likely open it up to more users.
ChatGPT Summary (updated)
To see how we got to this list, read on! I have an update coming with ownership to start finding the leverage spots today so stay tuned.
Sunday Morning NFL Leverage Focus
It is time to begin figuring out where the good chalk and the bad chalk is. I intentionally saved this til today to understand what I like before pivoting. I see the skill positions are where the chalk lies, which is because the spread on QB. Ideally what we can do is identify who I didn't make mention of in the past 2 days and fade them with success, but lets talk about the top 3 owned plays:
CMC - The pros to playing him are his high usage, high point total projected for the team and game expected, and solid run blocking situations anticipated. That makes him worthy of being played today. We also established that paying up for RB this slate is important. One con though: is that Seattle has been good against pass catching RBs, although he is one of the best at that. So how does he fail?
Fresh back from an injury, if he gets hurt or limited workload, he may not reach ceiling or value at his price. Theres only 1 game on his past 5 games of workload so its tough to say he will outperform the top tier in game 2.
Passing game: as I mentioned, Seattle ranks 6th in DVOA against pass catching RBs and so his passing game involvement could get limited, which then makes his touchdown scoring importance higher to reach his ceiling. Purdy then becomes a pivot off of CMC, yet Deebo is currently projecting as the highest owned WR. Kittle projects well -> (DOUBTFUL to play now), and I like the matchup for the Ricky Pearsall vs Tre Brown just as good, so that becomes a double pivot if you decide to stack one of them pass catchers instead to collect points.
Opposing RB: Assuming the game doesnt fail to reach its potential in points, one thing CMC lineups are less likely to do is play Kenneth Walker, who is also in a decent spot with his workload. This saves salary and helps open up a few things, so I will build 1 lineup around this idea of a Brock stack with Walker runback and then see how that feels. Too much leverage? Not a ton of leverage individually but look at the ownership
Achane: Now heres a guy I havent mentioned much so I'm looking into it now. He showed up in my optimal lineup so that is a pro. His usage is high thanks to involvement in the pass game when trailing. His projection is quite decent for me as well so I wont knock the play. Infact he stacks well with Jacobi Meyers on the opposite side of this game too. Just checked and the run blocking and game script ought to support rushing as well. The Raiders rank 31st in DVOA against pass catching RBs so that one is actually quite a good play that I wasn't truly considering. How does he fail?
Split rushing with Mostert; Mostert scored last week and robbed Achane's touchdown equity. I dont know that I would say play Mostert but that split limits the upside.
Passing game; I dont necessarily love playing Tua, but other pieces that could eat are Jonnu Smith, and any time someone is catching touchdowns who isnt Achane, that will hurt Achane's value.
Opposing RB: Mattison usage for some reason is showing quite high for me even though his projection does not.
Kamara: The target king at RB, has a higher floor than just about anyone at the position, but floors do not win GPPs. We need ceiling games, which involve touchdowns. I don't believe that he is going to easily reach value in this game where random productivity could come from MVS again, or it could be vultured by Taysom, or it could be simply a shootout instead. This is my preferred fade personally as betting on two bad teams to do good is not always ideal. Nick Chubb is also getting steamed up this morning so its tough to say that even pivoting in the game makes sense imo. I will say that there are reasons to play Cleveland players this week just due to revenge narrative and poor saints defense out there, but I'm not going out of my way here personally.
Offensive line vs Defensive line Matchups / Mismatches
I should have posted this on Friday, but this is showing where teams will help and hurt their skill positions. Seeing SF have that run advantage over Seattle today solidifies CMC's spot as a good one.
Sunday Draftkings Optimal lineup for DFS
Note the previous optimal with Rodgers is still posted on Friday or so, but I downgraded his projection to see who next QB up would be and it gave me a Bo Nix lineup that kinda highlights things I like. naturally so I am going to run this one and try a few pivots to it as well.
TEs who I think could score a touchdown
These guys have high redzone usage lately, and knowing we want to be around 4100 at the position, I figured we can look closely at who might find the endzone at the position.
Pitts, Kmet, Smith, Henry, Conklin, and Freiermuth are all pretty cool for options and within reach of optimally priced.
Top DFS Leverage Plays before Draftkings Lock
Which one of these guys are going to succeed? Also note that Mostert was the top overall leverage but filtered him out due to lack of odds to make it to the target score. Derrick Henry is going in my next lineup just to see how it unfolds.
Saturday Evening Ceiling Finder
Just looking at the workloads, there are a few stackable teams that show up atop this chart on Saturday. I'm seeing the Chiefs, the 49ers, and the Seahawks all seemingly up the middle, with the Rams also low key hanging out up there. Bo Nix is also sitting high, but it seems that his primary WR Sutton hasnt picked up as much work lately. That can all change quickly but it carries risk IMO, as he matches up against a decent cover corner this week. I like that he projects as a top WR though so I will play that stack with another piece if possible.
DFS Salary and Point Targets for Draftkings
Based on what I simulated this week, we want a QB around the 6100 range that can get us 26 points. Lets see if we can find one to fit this build within a couple hundred bucks.
DFS Simulations for Draftkings (experimental)
Heres a look at how things turned out. There is a Wilson to Pickens or Harris type build looking viable. Freiermuth is also showing up this week so there may be some importance to Pittsburg players.
QB
I circled the QBs primarily in that price range, that are above the line. Wilson, Nix and Goff are the 3 QBs who seem to project the best in that range. Stafford is somewhat brought into the fold too, because Kupp, Pickens and Sutton are the 3 WRs that also project within that range of QB. QB ownership seems spread pretty well this week, meaning that getting unique here will be difficult. However the leverage is sitting somewhere around this range, with Geno, Nix and Goff. When looking at positive trends for QBs, Pickens and Sutton both stand out there, so Wilson or Sutton will be the play for me in a single entry, with a lean to Wilson thanks to the sims.
RB
The RB salary range gets a little tricky because we are told to pay up for RB, around the 7100 range this week. There are two spots to enter in order to average to around that price point, so the way I am approaching it is to identify who the cheapest RB I am comfortable playing first, that can get us over 20 points at least. Rhamandre Stevenson is a name I previously mentioned around 6100 potentially this week, but also facing the Rams DST whom I'm considering playing. So Najae or Kareeem Hunt are the next cheapest candidates I think I will play. I believe that gives us an 8100 or 8200 ish back to pair with. Kyren Williams might pair well with the Rams Defense, CMC in a high total game but is also chalk, or Derick Henry who has had like 8 weeks of touchdowns consecutively for super low ownership.
WR
Lets see what we can find in the 6000 range. Ridley has been quite solid lately, but Njigba can be paired with Geno which is a stack path we are considering. Both look like DVOA matches in good spots as well. Jakobi Meyers and Courtland Sutton both in this range as well for value WR plays. I believe Josh Downs is right on the trend line and shows a blue dot for leverage. Richardson seems to like him.
TE
Cole Kmet and Freiermuth both hit this salary range, and show as a leverage potentially, but also appear below our value line. Jonnu Smith is above the line with regards to his workload in the same space. They all happen to be in good spots vs the defense.
Friday Summary for Core DFS Plays
I asked ChatGPT to summarize this blog and this is what it told me.
I encourage you to use the charts below and come to your own conclusions as mines is just an interpretation of what I see. There could be more gems I havent mentioned in the text yet.
Player Opportunity vs Salary
Starting at the top of the chart, I am seeing only two QBs appear that have had more opportunity than actual points over the past 3-5 weeks, who reach my volume thresholds. Mahomes and Nix would lead the way in opportunity at the position. The importance of that chart is that we can identify the natural value a QB has if they complete the plays they have been missing on in any game. Last week I highlighted this situation because they faced each other, but defenses held each other mostly in check. Each week we have to review those matchups until they smash for value.
I do similar measurements for the skill positions. SF, SEA and KC are all in the top of that view. Injuries and replacement players have made it quite difficult this year to measure holistically, and I think this is why SF remains atop of that list too.
SF, MIA and DET are teams that have a few players who might have a good shot at reaching their target scores based on the 3rd view.
I will be using the weekend to break down the scatter plot since in more detail, but I have been seeing high workloads for Hunt weekly up to this point. The problem is that he may start to see a dip in work as well, with Pacheco back to practice. I am unsure how they use the pair going forward. Kelce and Mahomes are sitting atop of this view for the most part, meaning that they are missing opportunities to put up points, but are in plays to watch for in terms of a blowup game soon, maybe this week vs Buffalo? Bo Nix, Kamara and Josh Allen are all on the same area of tier for workloads.
Vegas Expectations vs My Projections
The reason I set this view up is to find game environments that may have the most potential for points, in relation to what Vegas expects, because Vegas favorites are usually highly owned spots. Teams will go above or below those Vegas expectations by 7-10 points at times which means that games projecting 50+ are not my favorites to target, but those in the 45 range can be great. More importantly, which team is set to exceed what Vegas laid out for them, like we saw Thursday with Philadelphia, vs the teams who might lay an egg like Minnesota did as well. The top environment showing for me is Detroit vs Jacksonville, as Detroit is set to exceed their total in my projections, and Jacksonville could as well, barely. San Francisco is also in a good spot to pass their team total with Seattle so this game environment is good for stacks. Then finally I have Buffalo set to exceed and win outright vs the Chiefs who are not projecting to exceed their Vegas total. I hope I'm wrong but they are overdue a loss anyways. No Butker and a road game sounds like a horrible timed experience ahead for me as a Chiefs fan.
Games that I notice that could underachieve: Pittsburg vs Baltimore. I do believe that ths one could be popular as Baltimore gives up many points to QBs and WR1s -> thus Pickens I bet gets ownership. I will see which WRs project better than Pickens as a potential pivot, but also may still play him alone. The Rams and New England game could go under the totals projected too, and I believe that is due to the projections of the defenses succeeding this week.
DFS Game Scripts for each NFL Team
Passing has been down a bit lately, which has reflected in the scoring. I see a handful of QB situations that look good for targetting as for now (Jets, Denver, Atlanta, Deroit and Pittsburg all stand out). Not all of those game environments are great but I will say that it makes Bo Nix intriguing as a starting point this week, if not Kirk Cousins. There are several favorable rushing situations showing where a good rushing team will face off against a bad rushing defense. Roughly peeking, Green Bay may have the best situation for rushing this week vs Chicago defense. There is more to rushing than that though before landing, although these situations are important going into the next segment.
Summary of Team and Player Situations for DFS
This page summarizes all of our DFS situations that we need to fill in a roster spot for. The metrics on the left in yellow indicate what I am looking for, while the teams on the right show hit meet that metric. We talked about Vegas totals and defenses and QB situations. The Potential Rushing boost is interesting as it gives a hand full of teams who could see extra rushing success (touchdowns or yard wise) based on my algorithm. I hate to see when my top DST has a rushing option vs the team (new england vs the rams) as that means a choice will be made for those lineups to play or avoid either. Buffalo is in a winning situation, but then the issue is whether or not James Cook gets that work or if Josh Allen vultures it. The Jets are also in a strong passing situation so whether or not they let Breece get work or just pass all game is probably game script dependent. Jacksonville projects for 18 pts, so it will also be thin so I may not necessarily key in on these guys this week personally and simply pay up for RBs.
Pairing high usage vs bad defense is otherwise what we want to do here, so someone like Bo Nix vs Atlanta immediately make sense as a core piece, especially since he has a good QB situation.
Wide Receivers vs Weak Spots
There are bad pass defenses who give up points everywhere, but then there are also funnels to specific positions in the passing offense. After assigning values to WR1, WR2, and WR3 for the primary recievers on each team, I paired them to the defense's most likely holes. It will never be an exact match since some of those holes are based on the cornerback or scheme, but it tends to give good insight on who might go off or find success over value.
The bigger funnel spots: Atlanta WR1 or RB (or both) vs Denver, which means a runback with London or Bijan Robinson might work out. They are one of the stronger defenses on the board so that is higher risk. The TE vs Kansas City has been a bit weaker spot in the KC defense if we think Buffalo wins or puts up points against this defense. WR1 and WR2 vs Buffalo, so if playing Mahomes, a double stack situation could be present. Las Vegas WR1 and Indianapolis WR1 both look like strong wide receiver funnels. There are other situations but they get more cloudy from there.
Wide Receiver vs Cornerback Matchups to Exploit
Slot WRs:
There are 3 slot WRs who have much more of a guaranteed matchup with specific cornerbacks this week. Keenan Allen seems to be the best bet of the 3 WRs as DJ Turner doesnt get a whole lot of volume (and doesnt appear to do much with what he gets anyways). Jermaine Jackson is missing data so I cant even comment on him, but Allen should find some space, as Chicago is likely trailing anyways vs Green Bay. Pass pressure should have Caleb dropping passes out quicker than usual as is, so hopefully to the slot.
Outside WRs:
This is the list of guys running routes on the outside who should find space to operate. The issue with wide receivers is that they rely on someone to pass the ball in their direction (accurately and timely) to pan out, but if these guys get the ball and catch it, they could end up doing well. I circled 6 of the names that stood out to me. Quenton Johnston was in the millionaire maker winning lineup a couple weeks ago and actually was a reason I decided to start posting this chart. Nico Collins is coming back but both him and maybe moreso Tank Dell have good matchups to exploit on the outside for Stroud. We mentioned George Pickens I believe vs Baltimore already. Then we get Cedric Tillman in another good spot to make plays vs one of the weaker matchups on the slate, if Jameis can hit him at the right time.
Draftkings Projections
I split this into two views this week; left side is moreso looking at top plays while the right is looking for who projects the top value. Starting with the bottom though, I see the Rams as my top DST, and surprisingly the Ravens and Lions in the mix too, but likely will end up on the Rams more than not. I like to mostly pay attention to the teams in which WRs are projecting well from, and seeing Denver, LV, and Indy all on the list are interesting. I don't see SF outside of TE so going back to a Purdy stack might be a bit tough for me, but it looks to be a thing again.
More to come as we get closer to lock!
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