In a weird two game slate night, we have a showdown, and a 2 game slate. I may just try to play them both so maybe the intertwining of these posts will help.
Expectations vs Salary
Achane has what appears to be the highest ceiling and ownership on the slate. Hill and Brown appear to be priced higher so that seems to mean that Achane ownership is likely warranted on a two gamer, whether successful or not. Then I see a list of min priced TEs down in the cheapest end that I hope to not rely on. Sam LaPorta is likely the only real recognizable name but his workload has been lower than salary expected value. Noah Fant and Jonnu Smith both appear to bring a little more work in the first 3 weeks, for a slightly cheaper price so that is something to watch for.
Vegas Expectations vs My Vegas Expectations
Detroit and Miami are home teams and that wont change. However the numbers that are calculated here are surprisingly low on both visiting teams and home teams. Miami is the only team projecting over its team total so just maybe they get it together. Tennessee has sucked in a major way so it makes sense that they will cover their spread with a new QB. Typically we need at least one underdog to target, so I guess it will be a coin flip as of now, based on getting away from the field there though.
Offensive vs Defensive Lines
Detroit is the runaway best on both sides of the ball. It seems that Seattle is maybe the next closest. May have to pay attention to injuries to see if that holds true.
Game Script Finder
It appears that the Miami vs Tennessee game could indeed be the better one, due to the lack of defense. It should be noted that those teams also have a lack of offense so that makes it even more difficult. The best offensive coordinators tend to find ways to score against tougher defenses, and in this match of games, Miami likely leads the way in general.
Leverage Plays
I am posting this to try and figure out where most of the leverage lies. It appears that most of it is within Miami and Tennessee. Detroit and Seattle is likely good for core plays, but if you want to jam in a bunch, maybe Levis or Smith may help get there.
In further looking, Levis is a natural pivot to Geno. More usage and half the ownership, espeicially if going Lions DST.
Defense vs Receivers
Based on where teams are weakest, there could be reason to target Levis, as Miami's giving up the most potential to opposing WR1 in the league. Goff is the obvious selection, but if he cant make his first read / or if his first read isnt LaPorta, what is Goff gonna do with pass pressure? This is just my thought process baked in with the charts up to this point. Seattle / Miami / Tennessee have more chance to get to their first read than Goff. St Brown is elite enough to beat coverage but it is a potential pivot place.
Directional:
So Miami doesnt like to cover the middle of the field. This opens a bit of slot route catches up. Tyler Boyd runs the most slot routes in the Titans offense. Then the Dolphins are terrible deep, so maybe thats where Ridley or Hopkins pan out.
Projections
Some players simply arent projecting out well at all. I am sure LaPorta gets more than 2 points but this is all intruiging here. I think my first build is heading to Levis, whom is typically a target of mines when it comes to opposing defenses. Not today though. Lions defense may win them the game or buckle to Geno. With Metcalf projecting the best, that part is undecided for me.
Potential Leverage With Detroit:
Thanks to the showdown being on this game, I am able to add this perspective. Bates and Lions defense both have some positive flex leverage showing which make them interesting, as most will likely play some form of this offense for points. There are currently 4 guys showing as better captain plays than flex in key spots so we may need more info as lineup lock gets closer.
Potential Leverage with Seattle:
I see some potential leverage with targetting Lockett and Jaxon, skill positions in addition to the kicker. That makes me want to play Geno at captain the most here, but Walker/Metcalf are also viable- with a lean towards Walker due to his heavy usage in the offense.
Leverage numbers tend to change the closer to lock time, but for now, this is how things shape up. Probably some field goal kicking tonight. Good luck!
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