There's something special about the NFL season and how you don't have to wait a whole week to turn around and win money. Thats what brings us to showdown, where the bottom and top of the leaderboard are 1 play away at times, or a whole idea off expectations. Either way, tonight I will continue the path that has been working out for me, and that is finding lower owned captain plays that have potential. 4ish value plays and 2 guys who can touch the sky, lets see.
Salary vs Expectations
Ok first look as I write this article btw, Purdy is surprisingly putting in work. His usage is the top of the slate, which immediately makes him a ceiling candidate but not likely a captain candidate for me unless his ownership is low at captain. His supporting cast has been in and out of the lineup lately but Geno is next up as a potential double QB lineup emerges.
Value to me is considered any name above the trend line, so Kittle, Njigba, Jennings and Zack are all in play based on their workload. This strategy removes projections from the equation and opens up the idea of finding underowned plays. A guy named Jake Bobo is for those going for higher owned captain plays and looking for darts who might catch a ball or 2 for cheap unique builds. Need to see his snap counts to consider it.
Zach and Jennings both appear to be the lowest owned in the 2nd tire of names while Njigba seems he could be the lowest owned up top.
Vegas Expectations
Slate wise these are all the teams and a preview of projections to come. For this slate, it is interesting to see Seattle is projecting to cover and potentially win outright. I had the same thing happen during the Chiefs vs Saints and that did not work out fortunately, but with these two teams underperforming last week and coming into this one, that is interesting. I think at least one of these teas should expect 20 points but if they do not, the under is live and Seattle cover is live, against the grain.
Game Script
Seattle is a running team, ranked 5th in rushing DVOA surprisingly, and facing an average run defense in SF. Since SF is favored, the run game for Seattle is likely to go underowned, meaning this is an edge to attempt in large field showdown GPP tonight if you dare. Then again, I'm not entirely sure how much of that rushing is RB based vs Geno running for his life either. SF is a passing team and will be going against an average pass defense as well. I think this is the way most people will build tonight, considering Purdy and his weapons are all in.
Snap Estimates
With 5 weeks of snaps, the key is to look at who is trending up and if they are jumping around, who jumps around with them. Bobo had a big dip in week 5, and it is unclear why or if those snaps are coming back. Anyone with around 20+ snaps for cheap is always interesting for dart play.
Defense vs Receivers
SF has a glazing hole around the WR2 position. Njigba being the projected WR2 makes him interesting because SF has a huge funnel to 1 of the 3 WRs. Therefore I would give him a close look if his ownership stays down. Infact I will likely only play 1 WR in a given lineup, although Metcalf might be good enough to beat coverage too. In peaking at the WR vs CB charts of PFF, I can see that there is 1 CB grading worse than the other two, and that is Chavarius Ward surprisingly. He lines up on the left side of the defense so the Right side WRs in Seattle ought to be where they attack.
To give a bit more insight on this though, SF seems to line up their CBs in one side of the field and not move them much, as practically all of Ward's snaps are likely over there. Tyler Lockett is projected to be the Right WR just based on how the receivers tend to lineup. Njigba tends to line up in the slot quite often so I'm now leaning a bit more towards Lockett than I anticipated 5 minutes ago. In addition, Metcalf has lined up on the right side 41% of the time while Lockett has lined up there 40% of the time. So a lot to say that this situation sucks and I may depend on leverage to get me there.
SF seems to favor WR3 and seeing that Jennings didnt do much for me last week, I'm sorta interested to go there again for more pain and suffering. Kittle is also interesting based on the Seattle coverage or lack thereof.
What the 49ers might do:
Aiyuk and Purdy are my top 2 captain plays here.
Geno is showing as a top option in the captain spot for leverage, with high usage as well. The dilemma here is that 1, he takes a lot of sacks and 2. His captain ownership expectations do land in the double digits, so he wont be my first play as a captain, but he is viable in my 2nd or 3rd lineup build, especially in an underdog stack scenario. Lockett actually shows a bit more leverage in the flex, so I am likely to lean that way in a Geno captain build. In a very long shot dart world, where the game features only field goals without touchdowns, maybe Myers could get you a few points there too, with the game ending on a Myers kick for the win. We will see about that.
What the Seahawks might do:
Updated: Geno or KWalker are viable at captain while Njigba has surfaced as a bigger flex leverage here.
Its a bit more difficult to find a viable captain on the SF side because many of them cancel each other out. Mason has the most leverage but also expecting double digit ownership. He does have high usage and a good spot so I could see him being in my 3rd or 4th build as a captain play. There is massive leverage on the SF kicker so who knows, this could be a double K kinda night if the low totals I project today end up being legit. If Purday ownership at captain drops under 10% he would be an interesting captain play for me as well.
Points Left on the Table
Based on this new metric I'm doing, SF has the most points left on the table, with PUrday, Mason, Aiyuk, and Samuel all seemingly in line to exceed expectations at some point soon. If it happens tonight, then you would likely need 4 or 5 SF players in your build, in a unique way to offset what the field is doing.
Good luck!
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