This will be the final installment of the 2025 season of this series. I am looking at a few angles for this two game slate to get unique with pivot points. The teams all earned a right to be here and so this showdown will be great, moreso for the winning teams than the losers. I'll have a condensed look at things since the stats arent quite able to be pulled the same as all year up to this point.
KC vs Buffalo Showdown
Mahomes is still somehow the most popular but at least he has the highest usage on the table, meaning maybe the chalk is warranted. On the cheap end I see Justin Watson at 1.7%. Just maybe he gets one of his deep routes for a touchdown if looking to offset his ownership. Otherwise maybe Coleman is a dart play that is unaccounted for.
Bills Leverage Spots
Seems Allen is a better flex than captain play for leverage. Shakir maybe better for captain if trying it. Then Kincaid, Bass, or Bills DST may be worth while.
Chiefs Leverage Spots
Kelce captain seems to be the most leverage today for the Chiefs. Then it gets a little dicey for leverage in the flex, with Butker and maybe Hopkins.
Workload Ceilings vs Salary (last 3 games)
Updated: Some players were missing so I added them. I am extremely surprised that Mahomes projects to be twice as owned as the next QB on a 3 game slate. After all, hes the only less than mobile QB in the final four, but perhaps because he is the cheapest of the 4 most are paying down at QB. Jayden Daniels actually has the highest ceiling and based on this chart, hes my play for my single entry as of right now. Hurts usage went down while he got hurt, but he is the lowest of ownership on a team with the highest win expectation on the board. I will say that Hopkins completely disappeared last week, yet showing single digit ownership potentially. That makes me want to play him and hope he reminds the league why hes the one of the greats.
Game Scripts
Washington will face one of the toughest pass defenses left in Philly, who are also good against the run. Washington defense appears to be the weakest left and therefore this is why Philadelphia is expecting a clearcut win. Buffalo is expecting to face a pass funnel defense while KC may face a slight funnel to the pass as well. Something odd about this matchup is that the QB for KC is at a disadvantage with Buffalo defense while the WRs all show an advantage per pff. That is a sign that pass pressure is expected to cause issues for KC.
Defense vs Receivers
Interestingly all 4 teams left have a weakness against WR1, which I dont recall seeing most years. KC and Philly will get advantages at WR2 as well. Philly gets a TE whole that other teams dont get, and KC can use pass catching RBs with success this week too.
PFF WR vs CB Matchups
This is how PFF sees the WR pool today. Unfortunately there isnt the same level of detail in these matchups as I used to have this season, but my main takeaway is that the primary read in each offense is sorta where we should expect the points to come from, in alignment with the DVOA chart.
Projections
So next season, I will have to find a new way to project defenses now that the data I was using previously is no longer available. As of now I cant quite trust it the same so I am removing the defenses from the list, although full disclosure, I have Buffalo winning and being the top defense showing, especially as leverage on Mahomes. Hope I'm wrong there but I will say that Buffalo is good at containing the QB production of their opponents, thus why Lamar struggled last week, so at that massive ownership I may give that a try in GPP regardless. Otherwise it appears most lineups are going Mahomes -> Worthy this week. I will not be doing that pairing at all.
Just running an opto against my default projections, it leads to stacking game 2, with a lean into Ekeler. This opto leaves like 6k on the table so I do NOT recommend playing it. Barkley is unlikely to be outscored so I would recommend playing him and not two Chiefs RBs and 2 KC WRs too.
Sim Targets
Seems we are paying around 6900 on QB, which is closest to Jayden based on sim results.
Top ownership and Pivot ideas
Ownership should never be the sole reason for a pivot. With Barkley being projected at 97% ownership, there are some folks who will fade him just for that. But lets really take a moment to think through this ownership chart.
At 97% ownership, we do have to ask ourselves if there is at least a 97% chance that he is in the optimal lineup. To be honest, the answer is no based on my projections. However he is the top projected RB and the big play equity on this slate, whether its rushing or passing is why we are playing him. So we can look at playing Barkley in two ways. 1. How does Barkley fail? 2. How do we win while eating that chalk?
The more likely outcome is that Barkley breaks free, runs a long touchdown in and puts up at least 20 points. You need 2 RBs in your lineup, and so that puts heavy pressure on finding a 2nd, let alone 3rd RB to do the same. Heres the RB pool:
Not really any other RB on the table who really has a 20 point ceiling imo, so the stress is real. However if Barkley gets closer to say - 13-15 points, the discussion changes, to where Cook and Brian Robinson or Ekeler or Hunt have potential points to put up on a points per dollar basis. So how does Barkley get to 13 points? 1. Lack of touches or 2. defense will have to put up some heavy stops. There are only two plays that can make either or both of those calls happen. 1. Brian Robinson - who has the 2nd highest potential points on the slate over the past 3 weeks, and 2. Washington DST showing up. Both of these plays stack well together if building away from a Barkley massacre, and therefore are my top two pivots on the slate. One or both could pan out for very little ownership because they are the two least likely plays that any Barkley lineup are preparing to make. Therefore whether or not you play Barkley, that is the ultimate leverage.
Other Pivots
Barkley and Cook are going to be the heaviest pair of RBs because they have the safest workloads and folks love safety, even in tournaments, so no doubt in my mind its the popular pair. Lets say that the popular combination works out instead of pivots at the RB position. I am going to build a lineup with this in mind, but that means we still need to pivot somewhere. There are two viable options to me.
Off the Chiefs passing game or 2. Off the Philadelphia DST
We have Mahomes as the top owned captain and Kelce as the top owned TE, meaning 40% of lineups are likely to have that stack. There is basically one stack that makes sense for pivoting here and that would be Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid, as a Mahomes lineup will not be able to play Allen or any other QB. Kelce has high usage in the playoffs but the Bills DST also knows this. Therefore the 3rd option is just that, Bills DST, which is a tall order but they did just disable the Ravens offense, so perhaps they figured out how to do the same vs Mahomes by now? The Chiefs and Bills play each other like division opponents at this point since the NFL makes this matchup annually + post season.
The other mention is the Philadelphia DST, which is a perfect reason to consider Jayden Daniels today, as any lineup playing Eagles DST is not likely to play Jayden or the RBs for Washington. Infact that is a 40% expectation there.
Philadephia vs Washington Showdown
I have pulled showdown content for game one and we already knew Daniels was atop of the chart. What we didn't know is that Barkley is going to be 2nd highest in potential points on this slate. I think there's a lot of merit to getting to Daniels as a result, while hoping this isn't like their 1st matchup that took place in Philadelphia. However getting to both of those top priced plays on this single game entry will be difficult to do without missing on the middle tier, where Brian Robinson, Ertz, and other Washington plays are sitting at much lesser ownership. That may be a sign for main slate as well.
Showdown Optimal
Interestingly the optimal says that the Eagles project to win this game and project very well vs Washington, leading to a 5-1 Philly stack. I will say that is one way to build for this showdown, in their home game. Maybe the time has come for the rookie to be like all rookies and lose before the superbowl arrives.
But what if he is the winner we think he can be? Then I see myself flipping this to a 4-2 Washington stack, with a Mclaurin captain or Daniels captain and then seeing how the rest fall into place. Thats for the larger field GPP minded folks.
Philadelphia Showdown Leverage Spots
This is a 2 game slate where both games play one after the next. This gives a big advantage to late swap if you find the right plays to target in game one. Based on current numbers, Barkley looks like the top owned captain and still shows leverage. AJ Brown might end up being another candidate come lineup look. Then flex leverage is hinting at Goedert, Elliot and maybe the Eagles DST in showdown. Dohtson or Calcaterra would be dart prospects.
Washington Showdown Leverage Spots
With 6 guys in the points left on the table section, this goes against the optimal, saying that Washington 4 stacks will be a value play if they can live up to the expectations of the game. Both Jayden and McLaurin have leverage in the captain spot showing. Daniels and Ekeler both have points left on the table, meaning there is opportunity for value in both. Brian Robinson projects well as does Zaccheaus.
I may get an update before the games tomorrow out, but figured I'd peek one last time and see if we can get any insights for the NFL season. Good luck!