Opening thoughts
This could be my final main slate writeup of the NFL season potentially. Big thanks to those who gave my system a chance this year, and I hope it has helped you in one way or another. Theres about a 0 percent chance I will have any showdown data for the super bowl as I'll be in Vegas at the time, but I hope to have some for the division championships next weekend. The data is quite limited at this point in the year around what we can project, as we have reached a point where teams are trying to go in their bags and surprise their opponents across the board. We also have 8 teams with the ability to get to the QB, so any weak oline blocking will be an issue. I'll be looking at these charts for the first time as I write this article so bear with me and follow the thought process, as each chart is here for a reason!
Showdown Bal vs Buf
This is the 2nd meeting between these teams as I recall it and I am looking forward to it whether rain, sleet or snow. Finally the head to head matchup on the big stage so that fans from each city can get bragging rights and say 'i told you so' in one way or another. I believe the snow will be a factor in ceilings but Josh Allens workload and potential ceiling is higher than the rest. Them superpowers get neutralized just a little in the snow, but clearly ownership is going to be on both QBs at a high level. The guy in the middle is Derick Henry and that makes things interesting up top. Then Cook in no mans land for even less.
Two names I do think are interesting for now; Coleman, who is one of the biggest redzone targets for Buffalo, and Keaton Mitchell who is in the dart zone for no ownership. Not sure we have to go to one or the other but that value is interesting.
Leverage Spots for Buffalo
Leverage Spots for Baltimore
Optimal
Updated! 11:45 pm
Sunday 2 Game Slate Odds vs Salary
Yesterday's scatterplot gave us a path to Jayden being the top guy on the slate. I personally didn't play him or Goff in my builds, just due to taking a shot on Lamar or Hurts going overlooked. Well we have only 2 games today and the top of the food change appears to be either Allen or Barkley, as it pertains to usage and potential points. Puka is right below next to Derrick Henry, and none of these guys are going to be low owned from the looks of things. Salary seems quite fair on the top guys. Then we get Stafford in the dead zone, Goedert and then a bunch of cheap plays above the line.
Optimizer with Default Projections
As previously stated, this just puts my top projected plays directly from my sheet into a lineup based on salary to see what is projecting. The tough thing this slate will be that the defensive projections are no long a part of my system so it is a judgement call til I get the data back that was lost. Regardless, I can see that most of my plays project well from Baltimore and Buffalo. Then Philly for QB + RB. Not a big fan of this build so I wont play this and I recommend not playing this lineup. One thing of interest though is Tylan Wallace projects well next to Bateman. I will also say that WR1 vs Baltimore typically does well, so Shakir is there. However hes nowhere near a lock to be the WR1 in Buffalo so those are the type of plays to think deeper on in the next section.
Sims
QB
The sims suggest spending around 7000 salary on a QB that can get you 30 pts. When looking at projections, I believe that eliminates Stafford. There is one caveat to playing stafford though at his ownership. If you believe that all 3 of the other QBs underperform and Stafford exceeds, he could get there. Puka is the top projected WR so maybe there is something there? I just wont be doing it unless Stafford drops below 5% ownership. The other 3 have 1. Allen with the most potential points and ownership, 2. Lamar with the highest projection but least value and 3. Jalen with the best bet overall at lower ownership.
RB
Looking for RB projections, I don't see much reason to fade the top 2 RBs at this time. The drop-off in projections looks significant enough. You will likely want a path to 20 points at the RB spot. You 'could' get there with say a Barkley 30 point game + a 10 point game out of Justice Hill but I'm not sure the risk is worth the reward.
WR
With WRs, the goal is to get to 18-19 points per WR. Only one guy projects over it, and that is Puka. Then theres a string of Shakir/AJ/Bateman that get close and so we will want to see if anyone can break a touchdown at the WR position today more than ever. Here is a listing of those who project a ceiling over 18 points.
Tylan Wallace would be likely need a long touchdown to get there. Cooper is otherwise the lowest owned in an offense that we don't quite know well enough to stamp WR1.
TE
TE is something I think has such low upside today that I likely play just 1. Buffalo and Baltimore have the two top guys. I will mention that if I find I need more salary today, its not going to be where I drop a QB - I would drop one of these guys for their backup, like Knox.
Top Owned / Pivot Points
So I have been keeping my eye on one specific situation here, and to my surprise Shakir ownership is on the rise. Of all the top ownership, he is the one I think carrying the most risk. Why? I know that Buffalo gives up the most points to the WR1 and he is sorta that. However they have shown all season that they dont have a true WR1. In addition, Allen is one of the top 6 owned. So what can we do here?
1. get to Cook / Buffalo Rushing options instead of Allen and the passing game.
Baltimore defense? Not sure I trust that play to work out, but you would think that the Ravens practice against a rushing QB every day. Perhaps they defend it well too.
The other two guys of interest here as potential pivots are Barkley and Puka. The issue with pivoting here despite the ownership is that they are also the top projected in their position for me. There is still opportunity to pivot though. For example, I do have interest in Hurts and a WR or 2. Then we also have Puka as the top projected WR. Either the Eagles DST is going to shut him down or hes going to get his targets. They dont go anywhere else with the ball, so theres the pivot, although with Kyren up there, and knowing Stafford is the least mobile QB left, Philly defense might just have a case for itself.
--------------------------------------Saturday Slate notes below----------------------------------------------
Last updated: 1:53pm KC time
Salary vs Expectations
Updated: Daniels is leaning to be the chalk, which I do like that game environment and his usage on the chart, so no complaint. Mahomes is 3rd highest ownership projected at this point and we will go through the breakdown by position soon to see if we can ID some leverage.
On a 3 week sample this week, I decided to remove the week 18 game and focus on the Wild Card, week 15-17 based on the team in order to establish workloads. In that span, we got a clear Jayden Daniels getting the most work and potential points, although based on his price, he hasnt quite achieved it recently. This week is a bit interesting though for this chart because of the lack of games in addition to the weather. Understanding who has the ability to put up the top scores is likely going to make and break a lot of lineups. 9 lineup spots, and I think a good exercise is to identify the two people on each team that could do it.
Vegas Projections
My projected totals are actually in line with the Vegas totals. The spreads are not so much. I have the KC game going over its projected 41 points and that is because Houston is projecting 3 touchdowns. Not putting a ton of weight into that but if going there, Metchie and Schultz are value plays per the chart above. Also worth noting that the Chiefs are the healthiest they have been all year including defense, so playing Houston is a grain of salt to me.
Game Flows
Both Philadelphia and Detroit both show as having best matchups to play against as the Rams and Washington seemingly have the weakest defenses. Goff and Mahomes both score the best as far as QB situations while Stafford has the worst situation ahead for a QB.
Defense vs Receivers
As I look at passing options, the ideal thing to do is look for funnels to one or 2 positions, as that gives a bit of a guaranteed point funnel. Puka is one of those examples if the Rams are able to get passing going. Buffalo will have one of those funnels to WR1, and Houston possibly as well, except a key cornerback is returning for KC.. meaning that hole could fill for Nico. Laporta and Kincaid otherwise look like the most viable TE situations.
Summary of Situations
I hope to reference this in the future parts of this writeup further but it would seem that Baltimore could cause Allen to scramble more often based on anticipated pass pressure.
Projections
I am unable to update my defensive stats as usual this week due to a loss of data that is used in my system. Therefore I am leaving them off this week until I can find a replacement resource for defenses. I may just use that as a pivot position this week vs a chalky QB, like the Lions vs Jayden maybe. Will see in the pivot area.
Optimal
Full disclaimer; Do not play the optimal as is. It is only meant to be a guide to show how my projections fit together. One thing of interest is that Baltimore is projecting well. Detroit also has a couple pieces showing up here. A Buffalo runback also showing up - Shakir with potentially a lot of ownership. That might be the play I like the least at that ownership.
Sims
171 points expected which seems a bit low, but QB looks like a payup week with the RB spot as well. Everything else looks negotiable.
QB
Updated: What if I told you, that you could get Lamar Jackson for under 10% ownership today? In a game that he is likely to be throwing the ball, competing for his pride as an MVP.. Personally Id tell you that it will end poorly because I dont think hes been a great passer. Yes, I said it. However he has been a great rusher and ever since his mom told him to do that, hes been running all over the place, and is likely to put the team on his back again. Hes top projected, but I think my 1st pick today will be Jalen Hurts who gets a little closer to the sims price point. I will play at least one lineup with both today, fading everyone cheaper than Goff, because I dont believe they have the upside of those in the inner circle today.
Goff is 6300 making him the closest to the sim cost, but Jayden and Mahomes will have similar to his ownership. Hurts and Jackson both looking like overpriced QBs because of their RBs stealing the touchdowns but that can always change any week. Going cheap means you are hoping to make up points elsewhere but there are no guarantees that these other guys will get there at the skill position.
RB
Updated:
RB is interesting to me today. The overall projection is less than the QBs so I am prioritizing QBs over RBs today for less ownership. Now the top 2 RBs projected are also with the QBs I like the most so that is tricky when building one lineup. Id like to sprinkle combinations with them involved, but not seeing myself pay for both today with a payup QB in mind. Detroit - is the number 1 rushing option on the board, but Montgomery muddies the water. He is 3rd on my proj but top owned so it does feel like maybe just paying up for Barkley or Henry and punting the 2nd one down to either Montgomery, or one of the Washington RBs.
Gibbs has the top usage but Montgomery should be back to some capacity. Ownership is out dated but knowing Gibbs and Barkley project well make it interesting this week for payup RBs.
WR
We want WRs who can get us around 19 or 20 pts potentially today. Even if I am not playing the other QB of Hurts and Lamar, I probably will get one of their pass catchers in the event both do well today so Bateman is in. And AJ probably got his mind ready for today with the book he was reading on the sidelines, so he may also be a good one. Theres a range of low owned WRs I circled who might be puntable.
St Brown and Worthy look like the two most interesting WRs on the page.
TE
LaPorta is projecting as the top TE so I will start with him when I say that I dislike chalky TEs. Their work is kinda unpredictable and touchdown reliant, so definitely not going to prioritize him over a WR today. Hoping for 15 pts from a TE and Schultz will def need 1 or 2 touchdowns to get there. Maybe will settle wth Kincaid today.
KC vs HOU Showdown
One of the benefits of the first game is that we can dive specifically into it before it starts as we try and understand how plays align for it, and see what we might want to target or leverage into if we play any plays from it. Mahomes and Worthy have pretty much been the top usage plays down the stretch of the year. However I believe that with 3 weeks to prepare, Hollywood Brown and Hopkins could easily get more work today just as easy. In addition its worth mentioning that if we play showdown, there is a path to where Mahomes + Watson end up being intriguing as Watson is our cheap dart and Mahomes is our upside workload here, and it will be difficult to see a normal game path where 6 other plays are ideal unless the run game pans out.
Optimal
The optimal says that 4-2 Chiefs are the way to go, although again I would caution from playing 'this' lineup. Hopkins doesn't look like a captain I intend to play, although he does get the revenge narrative again (which might not mean a ton at this point). This optimal also suggests we would see lots of passing and not much RB success. The key takeaway thou
Houston Leverage Points
At captain, Nico is showing as the best leverage for Houston, although he is also 18% owned at captain. There are 5 guys with points left on the table, which might make them viable for a 3-3 or 4 man stack if getting away from the optimal. Schulz, Fairbairn and Metchie all look like positive leverage in the flex so if taking Houston, it may be worth getting 1 or 2 of those pieces.
Kansas City Leverage Spots
Mahomes is the top projected leverage followed by Kelce when it comes to captains. The issue with Mahomes though is that he is the top overall captain ownership on the slate, which is a concern. However if going to Mahomes, a low owned dart play is what I think makes sense to negate the ownership. Hollywood and Butker are the flex leverage that seems best. Also noting that Noah Gray is in a positive situation as well, which leans to Kelce possibly working out today as well
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