Opening thoughts
This could be my final main slate writeup of the NFL season potentially. Big thanks to those who gave my system a chance this year, and I hope it has helped you in one way or another. Theres about a 0 percent chance I will have any showdown data for the super bowl as I'll be in Vegas at the time, but I hope to have some for the division championships next weekend. The data is quite limited at this point in the year around what we can project, as we have reached a point where teams are trying to go in their bags and surprise their opponents across the board. We also have 8 teams with the ability to get to the QB, so any weak oline blocking will be an issue. I'll be looking at these charts for the first time as I write this article so bear with me and follow the thought process, as each chart is here for a reason!
Salary vs Expectations
On a 3 week sample this week, I decided to remove the week 18 game and focus on the Wild Card, week 15-17 based on the team in order to establish workloads. In that span, we got a clear Jayden Daniels getting the most work and potential points, although based on his price, he hasnt quite achieved it recently. This week is a bit interesting though for this chart because of the lack of games in addition to the weather. Understanding who has the ability to put up the top scores is likely going to make and break a lot of lineups. 9 lineup spots, and I think a good exercise is to identify the two people on each team that could do it.
Vegas Projections
My projected totals are actually in line with the Vegas totals. The spreads are not so much. I have the KC game going over its projected 41 points and that is because Houston is projecting 3 touchdowns. Not putting a ton of weight into that but if going there, Metchie and Schultz are value plays per the chart above. Also worth noting that the Chiefs are the healthiest they have been all year including defense, so playing Houston is a grain of salt to me.
Game Flows
Both Philadelphia and Detroit both show as having best matchups to play against as the Rams and Washington seemingly have the weakest defenses. Goff and Mahomes both score the best as far as QB situations while Stafford has the worst situation ahead for a QB.
Defense vs Receivers
As I look at passing options, the ideal thing to do is look for funnels to one or 2 positions, as that gives a bit of a guaranteed point funnel. Puka is one of those examples if the Rams are able to get passing going. Buffalo will have one of those funnels to WR1, and Houston possibly as well, except a key cornerback is returning for KC.. meaning that hole could fill for Nico. Laporta and Kincaid otherwise look like the most viable TE situations.
Summary of Situations
I hope to reference this in the future parts of this writeup further but it would seem that Baltimore could cause Allen to scramble more often based on anticipated pass pressure.
Projections
I am unable to update my defensive stats as usual this week due to a loss of data that is used in my system. However this is what things look like this week for top projected plays.
Optimal
Full disclaimer; Do not play the optimal as is. It is only meant to be a guide to show how my projections fit together. One thing of interest is that Baltimore is projecting well. Detroit also has a couple pieces showing up here. A Buffalo runback also showing up - Shakir with potentially a lot of ownership. That might be the play I like the least at that ownership.
Sims
171 points expected which seems a bit low, but QB looks like a payup week with the RB spot as well. Everything else looks negotiable.
QB
Goff is 6300 making him the closest to the sim cost, but Jayden and Mahomes will have similar to his ownership. Hurts and Jackson both looking like overpriced QBs because of their RBs stealing the touchdowns but that can always change any week.
RB
Gibbs has the top usage but Montgomery should be back to some capacity. Ownership is out dated but knowing Gibbs and Barkley project well make it interesting this week for payup RBs.
WR
St Brown and Worthy look like the two most interesting WRs on the page.
TE
LaPorta and Schultz still my favs but Kelce is the top of the charts.
Hopefully in the morning we get an ownership update to dive in deeper.