Prior to the season, I did some review on the 2021 optimal lineups. Basically I crunched out the top 100 optimal lineups per week and analyzed the contests for Fanduel and Draftkings. I'm back to do it again after 4 weeks of play to see how we are trending.
First thing to know, I've been posting data weekly on this site and only sharing via twitter. If you would like to ensure that you see my updates, sign up on this site and follow my twitter account.
So here is what I am interested in: When we are building for optimal lineups, what type of salary based expectations should we have? I'm using this view to see what has happened not only with the top optimal lineup, but the top 100 lineups per week for variance purposes. I also include Thurs-Monday games rather than just the main slate. This has led to 117 different players with an average value of 4.89 on draftkings. It seems you need an average of 23.89 pts per player if you want to shoot for an optimal lineup. Lets break this down to see a little further into it:
By Position:
The Quarterback position has been leading in value. Lamar is the only optimal QB who has made it here twice in the first 5 weeks. Otherwise we have seen teams like Washington, Detroit and other teams not known for QB play make it here so far and that is why value is high at the position. DST remains a spot to target value and therefore I recommend paying down when it makes sense. Carolina and Philly make the list twice so far.
We are getting the least value out of TE and RB in particular, where RB costs a lot for the position but producing under average value. Detroit has had an optimal RB 3 times out of 5 weeks so far. TE has had the least value but also costs much less on average. Basically that means not to expect much out of the role unless Andrews or Kelce go off. Maybe Kittle will join them someday.
By Team
In a nutshell, Detroit has produced the most optimal plays this year, over Jacksonville and Miami. What is the common thread here? These teams normally suck. Expectations have been low on them and therefore salary was low while they are over performing. We can expect their salaries to rise as they produce - especially when vegas odds rise with those teams. Washington has allowed the most teams to be optimal, meaning their defense is horrible.
The Rams have been priced up a bit this year so I have to say they are likely too pricey to make the optimal unless you see a 40+ performance out of their team total. Buffalo, San Fran and Tampa have all been pretty good at keeping teams from producing optimal plays so far.
Optimal Percentages/Slate Breakers
This table just shows us which players were the most necessary while being optimal. It is likely that Jefferson was 100% needed in one of the weeks he went off. But then optimal another week too to get over 100%. Last week, Hockenson was THE optimal TE and it wasnt really close so in the 1 week he made it, he was 100% necessary. Guys like this are who I would call slate breakers and any week they are on it, we have to think about them, especially when the price is low. In case you missed my week 4 preview -> https://www.dfsed.com/post/nfl-week-4-draftkings-october-1st-2022
I have not pulled data yet for fanduel, but if this is helpful, please leave me a like or comment.
Comments