I highly recommend going back and looking over the last 2 slates, seeing my process and seeing what went well and what did not. Every time I do that, I feel one step closer to victory.
There are some attributes that clearly have made some chalk chalkier and some pivots stronger than others. I'm going to play to them myself this week, but lets get started.
Updated! 10am CST
Ceilings
Who are the chalks that do not match the ceilings? I am circling some guys projecting low owned with a high ceiling per their workload. Mahommes is coming in top option at QB in a game that could blow out, and Ekeler showing an even higher ceiling than him at RB. Ekeler's ceiling may be tricky with Keenan taking on a larger share of targets so keep that in mind. Theres a trio of WRs who are threatening to take the slate off, but all even ownership right now, followed by Kelce at TE. Onto the positional breakdown!
QB
Mahommes is the highest priced and highest expectations at the highest price. Hes projecting 3rd highest ownership so thats interesting. Tua and Geno project to be the highest owned but there are definitely pivot opportunities here to Murray and Brady this week at QB. Those teams should do well but you do not need the QB to get there imo.
RB
I cant tell you which cheap RB to play this week because there are many players getting extra work today that havent had it previously, and therefore wont show here. However the top tier RBs are not grabbing a ton of ownership and therefore I may take on Ekeler and Ettiene. With Ekeler's usage at question, Ettiene is my favorite RB play today.
WR
Two names to remember this week: Evans and Kirk (assuming Chase is out). At this rate, I'm willing to risk one or the other in every lineup I build. I do like Hill but so does everyone else at 20%. Gotta remember that people are paying down at RB to pay up for the top 3 WRs on this slate. You still need to find your way to be different even if 2 or 3 of Hill and Hopkins goes off. An interesting pivot might be Waddle who has an equally good matchup but otherwise half the ownership as Hill. He may be overpriced and less worth it in value, but it is an idea if playing Tua stacks.
TE
Kinda like the Thanksgiving slate, there Kelce and then theres the rest of the field at TE, with Andrews possibly being higher owned and way less value. Kittle is interesting at that ownershp as well if not taking a value approach, which also has low ownership on Conklin and Dultch.
Vegas vs My Totals
The Arizona Chargers game looks rightly projected as highest scoring game, strengthening Ekeler's case. The Tampa and KC games are also expected to go over their totals. Note that the Team and Opp Score columns are my calculations and do not factor in injuries.
More reason to play Evans and Rachaad and Brady and Jax players right here. They do not pick up ownership but are showing value. You heard it here and I'll annoyingly screenshot these guys when they go off.
Pace and Game Flow
Once again seeing the Chargers up top in the highest paced game of the week, meaning it may shoot out. Kansas City appears to be facing a defense that funnels to the pass so Mahommes gets another tick in his passing options.
Defense vs Receivers
At first look, Hill may absolutely eat this weekend since he faces the team who has covered WR1s worst than anyone. I may need to realign the names to the position and injuries in some places still but you get the idea of situations that could be positive like that.
Summary
As we watch the chalk shift, ideally we will keep in mind the good chalk and bad chalk. However I will take more pivot chances this week than the past few.
Projections and Leverage
Sometimes the actual name projected is not the right person, but yet the situation is right. So we see Hill and Samuel up there for example -> which Hill makes sense, but what about Waddle? Samuel could easily be Mclaurin so keep that in mind when setting lineups.
Check back as I update all these visuals!
Comentarios