Opening Thoughts
This page is all about the different ways you can leverage against expectations, and I believe that we have to identify our biases up front (just like Thursday Night Showdown) in order to truly embrace that leverage. This week, without looking at any real data yet, I've noted that Kamara and Isaac G are expected to be some combination of the uber chalk. Why? Taysom Hill is out and Mason/CMC are both out, causing some comfort knowing that their workloads are safe. I expect at least 60% of the field to believe that this is the pairing to win a tournament, but how confident are you that this is the build to stick with? Spoiler alert, I wont eat that much chalk in a tournament. I'm sure that building with those two plays will restrict another build with win equity and that's what we are hoping to find below.
Part 2: Finding Leverage Spots
Welcome to Part 2 (part 1 is below this). In this segment we are looking to find ways we can differentiate from the core plays in tournament entries. What I am starting with is the last 3 weeks of work and then circling the names of players like Chuba Hubbard who have single digit ownership expected today with their workload. He stands out for projecting 1% ownership at the top to me. Carolina also showed up with a rushing boost in my sheet - behind Tennessee today, meaning there could be some form of rushing touchdowns there, hopefully not through vulchering from the QB or backup RB.
Updated Optimal Lineup
I'll give it a try in cash. I don't love it but it feels like something that could work out to beat 50% of the crowd in the right tournaments. I have some leverage thoughts already that drive me off this lineup in tournaments and we will get to them.
Updated Sims
I filtered the QBs to only those names that meet the salary range I am looking for. Some thoughts are that 1. Geno Smith has potential here as he shows slight leverage at captain. 2. No one is talking about Kyren Williams except a couple of us in my discord. 3. Drake London is the top sim WR, while Kirk Cousins prepares for a revenge narrative. Hes a QB in this range as well. Cade Otton and Brock Bowers both have quite solid potential, although Bowers will be quite highly owned for a TE.
Top Owned Plays vs Leverage Spots
With Will Levis being the top owned QB as of this writing (around 11%) and Darnold being 2nd, we have to assume their WR1 will also end up owned a bit more. The QB ownership is flat enough to where I wont worry about it today. RB however is a different story. Chalk is concentrated around Kamara and Charbonnet this morning so I will focus on what we can do if they fail. First lets understand why they are chalk. Taysom is on the IR and the vulcher equity goes down quite a bit. He is going to be involved in the game script even if things go south. Many weeks he is in this list and rarely fails. Charbonnet has similar value because of the missing Walker. But what if they fail? Who benefits the most?
Kamara Pivots
Passing game: The Giants are actually weaker in the pass game, specifically with WR1 and deep passes. What if we play Derek Carr instead, with MVS who has had a resurgence lately? More people are stacking Saints DST than any other Saints player with him, and so I dont think Kamara solo is going to be helpful if he is optimal.
Opposing RB: Tyrone Tracy is coming on strong, and funny enough, the Saints defense ranks 32nd in in run defense DVOA. If Tracy or any Giant scores points, it likely hurts 2 sets of chalk in the DST and Kamara touches.
Price Point Pivots
Kyren Williams and James Cook and Bijan Robinson and De'von Achane are all in the same price range with single digit ownership. Earlier this week I liked the idea of Barkley but his ownership is also on the rise.
Charbonnet Pivots
Passing game: Geno Smith and Njiba both show up as viable in the sims. Id go as far as saying Lockett or Metcalf may also have good matchups.
Opposing DST: Arizona DST scored 11 points on the road vs Seattle last time they faced each other. Now they are at home where they could be better. After all, I think they are close to WINNING their division and so I think there is merit to playing them if going off the board.
Opposing RB: James Connor is someone else showing up in the sims with 20 point upside on this slate, but only single digit ownership.
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Part 1: Finding Lineup Core plays and situations through Analysis
Expectations vs Salary
Based on the last 3 weeks of work, we can see that a couple of quarterbacks (Winston and Tua) lead in usage. Right behind is Brock Bowers and 3 more QBs in the mid tier, before seeing Drake London and Kamara. If any of these players take full advantage of their opportunity lately, it can produce a really good score for their price, with Kamara right on the edge of value based on the trend line. There are some names also floating on the cheap end like Coker, Njoku, and Moore as well and none taking on a ton of ownership as of Friday. Nonetheless I will look deeper into the ownership come Sunday Morning.
Vegas Expectations vs Projected Team Totals
When it comes to targeting games and players from certain teams, the idea is to figure out which teams can exceed their projected total, rather than who is going to reach a projection. None of them are projecting over 50 points on this slate surprisingly. Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Tampa are the 3 teams I project to have the highest totals, with Buffalo being the only team total I don't project over the Vegas expectations. The Philadelphia game will be of interest because we know that a player like Hurts or Barkley can score 3 touchdowns in one game, especially when they project to get over 4. The Giants vs Saints game is projecting to have the lowest total for me, which is a red flag for Kamara off the bat.
Game Scripts Based on Strengths and Weaknesses
Last week, the game projecting to have the highest pace actually decided to run the ball and run the clock out super fast (Chargers vs Atlanta). Minnesota is playing up pace and in a passing situation this week so its possible they do what the Chargers didn't do. The Saints do look better equipped to run the ball than pass it, but Philadelphia looks like much more of a rushing situation. The 49ers also look to be in a run funnel. On the passing side, there aren't a lot of defined passing situations available but Jacksonville and Vegas should see passing funnels.
Default Projections Optimized Build
An interesting set of players in this optimal as we kick off the journey to figuring out how the build should look. First, I'm surprised to see a Will Levis Stack come through. 2nd notice is that both RBs from Tampa and the TE show up here, meaning that they are projecting well for some reason in a high scoring game. Then I see London and JJ both show up after mentioning their game situations already as being good. Steelers defense is likely my top projected defense this week, playing Cleveland so that one likely is popular vs Winston this week. I dont usually recommend playing optimal lineups but they are good for finding how lineups are expected to come together. I might play this one for cheap just for tracking purposes.
Summary of DFS Situations and Key Metrics
First thing I want to ook at here are the rushing boosts. Tennessee, SF and CAR surprisingly, which just about solidifies Isaac as a good play for me. Whether or not Pollard or Chubbard work out, or even Levis for rushing potential, I will decide on a build by build case. I see 6 QBs total tis week in good position to pass, weather permitting. It's also worth noting that the Giants will be facing a worse defense than the Saints are facing. All this to say I'll probably fade Kamara this week entirely.
Draftkings Projections by Position
Many folks will ask me who my top plays are - and these are it in general. I trust the projections to identify the situations that are identifiable. Injury replacements dont tend to show up here as there isnt a good boost mechanism for me to do that today. The top 5 defenses are listed in that ordered, and with the Saints potentially being a top owned defense, I'll be skipping them.
Sims
Last week, I believe the sims projected a lower owned QB to be ideal and yet a high owned QB ended up doing well (Jayden Daniels?). Hopefully we get right back to the appropriate ranges for our construction, which appear to be close to the 5800 range this week at QB, and probably paying up for RB oer WR this week. With QB I tend to try and find all QBs within 300 salary of the sims and figure out what stacks make sense. Everything else I give a 500ish range or threshold to the average spent at that position.
These are the player lists of who sim'ed the most value based on their range of outcomes. Lets see how they fall in the usage charts position by position:
QB
I see about 7 QBs who fall within the range of players I am looking for at QB. This is quite a few more than I would like to sift through, so I will give priority to Geno Smith and Sam Darnold who showed up in the top QB situations list on the summary above. Darnold is 2nd in my QB projections with Justin Jefferson showing as the top WR projected (granted playing that stack may not be ideal without other considerations) so this will be the top situation to begin, although history has shown that the one in this range I forget to play tends to be who ends up causing regret. I will also mention that Njiba and Geno Smith also show up in the top projections, so both standout QBs make sense to me this week.
RB
Still disregarding ownership, but thinking about the average of 2 RBs equaling up to roughly 6850 in salary, the most expensive guy (Barkley) would require a Kenneth Walker or Bucky Irving pairing to get there, and both above the trend line for value. The total cost of that stack will be quite high though, leaving less for WR, TE, and DST. I mentioned Chuba earlier and seeing he is that high on the chart makes him interesting, although will have to understand if he has a path to success vs Philadelphia's dline too. Infact, this pairing seems to also align to the average salary.
Alvin Kamara ($8000.0), Tony Pollard ($6400.0), Chuba Hubbard ($6200.0) |
WR
Some of these players like Coker may not play due to injury so WR gets even more trickier. Drake London workload is promising at the top of this chart but we will also need to see how popular he ends up on Sunday, as too much ownership will turn me a different direction with Cousins struggling lately. If theres enough salary to average 6100 remaining, there could be a stars n scrubs type setup with the higher priced WRs going lower owned in general. Sterling Shepard and David Moore could end up being value pieces, but I tend to like to use the 'WR vs Receivers' chart below to pick and choose guys who might do something to score.
TE
Bowers seems like a strong play this week and most weeks, but if paying down, Cade Otton looks like a good fit once again at the recommended price point. Evan Engram is right on the button at 4800.
Defense vs Receivers
I look for plays that have a sharp filter, especially around WR1 like Drake London has, so we get less variance. I dont see a path to double stacking there because WR1 is really the weakest part of their defense by a lot in Minnesota. The WR2, whether thats DJ Moore or Keenan Allen is also a strong filter for Chicago. Njigba looks pretty safe as an option too for Seattle.
Redzone Targets
These are the names of every team's top 2 options in the redzone over the past 5 weeks. This might help with determining value plays such as David Moore who might fall into the endzone for cheap. If I were doing any betting or anytime touchdown scorer parlays, I'd likely try and pick a few of these guys to pair together for that type of bet.
If you made it all the way to the end, congrats as I believe you already have a leg up on the competition. Come back Sunday morning to see who I think we can target to leverage this field.
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