Opening thoughts
This point of the year is extremely difficult as injuries have piled on and weather makes some injuries hurt more. We now have teams who have waived the white flag and some others with 3 games left simply saying 'Cancun on 3'. The field is likely to consolidate on some plays where there is certainty (Gibbs). I don't anticipate anyone taking down a tournament when only playing from that lens of certainty, but moreso from a place of bold pivot to less certain play with upside. Each chart and section below was designed with those thoughts in mind as we search for the uncertain victory.
Potential Points vs Salary (last 3 weeks)
Saturday threw my schedule off a bit, and seemingly throws a wrench in this slate now that some fire power has already played. I am using this to review who has done the most over the past 3 week span, whether or not the points and touchdowns were seen. Goff + Allen was a big game last week so that boosted them up the chart for their usage. Chase has stayed up top for several weeks, with a high salary to match. First name below that would be Achane in single digit ownership, not far from Jayden Daniels. When looking for QBs who have left points on the table, Tua and Kyler are leading the way. This means that if they have QB friendly matchups, I will favor them.
Vegas Expectations vs Projected Totals
While the Bills have a cake walk schedule left (Patriots twice), they are still in position of 'must win' as they chase the top seed in the AFC. They project to win by double digits and score over 30 so they are interesting. Arizona, Cincinnati, and Detroit both seem to have high projections too. More importantly all 3 of these teams project over the implied totals from Vegas. I'm also keeping an eye on the 3 totals that appear to be on the late slate that project for 25 points.
Game Scripts
A lot of this ends up getting summarized in the key metrics area, but this will help showcase a few situations including the highest paced games (seattle/minnesota, giants vs atl, etc) in more detail.
Defense vs Receivers
As we search for the WRs to play, projections will only get us so far. Sometimes workload ends up funneling to the 1 WR in the best player situation found. This chart helps us see where the holes are. Some teams are good at taking away the primary WR from the other team, like SF defense funneling to WR2. This is likely a reference piece when we get to the positional breakdown.
Key Metrics for Draftkings Targets
The metric is on the left and then the qualified team or player is on the right. To begin, I recommend trying to pair as many situations together that correlate (bad passing defense and top QB situations for example. I'll do more of this in the breakdown as we put the puzzle together.
Draftkings Projections
A couple things i like to look at here; 1. top projected QBs and WRs together. Burrow + Chase is the top projected combo. It also has a low chance of reaching value.
The thing that most of us come for is the Defenses. Buffalo is the top projected this week which is a pay up situation for potentially low ownership.
Optimal Lineup
Getting a glimpse of how things project and Burrow is unstacked in this visual. I also notice that Cleveland showed up, likely due to value at defense. In a real life lineup you will want to stack someone like Burrow since he likely will have someone carry his points.
Sims Targets
It appears that we are paying up for RB once again this week, with QB also being a priority for the week, as we only want to play someone with 28 point upside at QB, preferably around 6100. One thing also interesting is that TE is much higher than usual at 5200-5300.
That gives us this subset of players to think through. More in the morning on the way.
QBs
Aright its crunch time, and once again, using the combination of charts to identify who I like the most from a data perspective. That disclaimer is needed because I really dont like ever playing this guy in DFS as he usually burns me -> Kyler Murray (vs Carolina) has the most positive trends showing if I am to build my first lineup. Him, Tre Mcbride show up in projection stacks and the good thing is Tre is high usage in the offense, so the goal would be for Murray to run in a touchdown and throw for 2 more to Tre at a minimum to make this happen. I project them for 26 points so it is in the realm of possible. Honorable mention would next go to Sam Darnold who projections one spot higher and is also in a decent passing situation again. He is less owned, but the issue is I dont have a high projecting stack buddy for him. Kyler also showed up as the most value in the sims in this price range.The last QB Ill mention in this range is Matt Stafford, who is below the value line and not within the range of my top 5 QBs, but he does have a WR projecting well with him (Puka, which could also be Kupp at times so dont get hung up on the names). Note, other QBs can work out if value opens up appropriately. A sub 3% Josh Allen or 1-2% Jayden Daniels/Jalen Hurts is always interesting because of their ability to reach 28 points which is our goal, and when those type of guys are low owned, it warrants consideration when building multiple lineups.
RBs
Running back this week is going to be a bit tougher to get right because none of these guys project all that well for me and the ones that do seemingly are below the value line. The goal is to get 22 points out of at least 2 RBs while spending around 6700 on average and the 3 guys I circled are all above that average. This means we need some value to balance this out. If a cheap value RB pops up in a good spot maybe theres something to be had there. Right now, Cook, Gibbs, and Barkley are the best fits, with Gibbs being the clear chalk play on the slate. Is that enough reason to fade him? Probably not, but Cook would probably be my pivot to Gibbs, if not Kyren Williams or De'von Achane. The issue is those guys dont project as well to make these lists. I will also call out that New England is in an interesting spot (with Washington) as two teams who might have some unseen rushing potential for low ownership. Stevenson appears atop of my sims for running backs and is only 5900, to balance out the cost.
WRs
Outside of the high priced Chase and JJ, Brian Thomas is in an interesting spot with the 2nd highest usage over the past 3 weeks. His QB situation isnt the greatest and so I tried to find guys who project well or have high redzone usage or simply high usage wth single digit ownership to highlight them. We do still need value though and WR is likely a place to search for it. Maybe someone like Tre Tucker, Nailor, or even Lazard steal some points today for cheap.
TEs
Only two plays I'm really interested in, but listing out all the redzone TE targets that have potential IMO. Touchdowns are important at this position because most workloads dont support their price at this position. Tre Mcbride may be one of the highest owned in this spot but I'll likely just go with him and Chig for the most part.
Top Ownership
Gibbs is by far the highest expectation in ownership today. Seems to be for good reasons but at that ownership we do have to ask ourselves, what if he fails? How does he fail? and Who directly benefits from his failure?
We can circle back to look at either Goff and his pass catchers, or the opposing RB (Swift) for value since he doesnt project a ton well. It all depends on how you see the position today.
Top Leverage
Just identifying the chalk as well as the most underowned plays with decent workload on this slate. I underlined the chalk (3 RBs over 20% is it). The rest is spread thin, so I just circled the top plays at single digit projected ownership. In thinking about Gibbs, it seems there is one path that makes a ton of sense; if you think that Gibbs fails, play the passing game. Goff's usage is surprisingly one of the top on the chart. I believe there is a sharp funnel to WR2 so I dont love going back to St Brown, but hes 5% projected ownership. Jamison Williams or Tim Patrick appear to be viable plays but I think it is a skinny stack if you do that. Then theres Cleveland players vs the Bengals. Can you trust DTR? Final call out is Jordan Addison at 3% projected ownership. Whatever you do, do it well enough to win. Good luck!
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