Any given sunday, we can play any given strategy to create a good lineup. I take my approach based to finding best bunch of plays that provide upside, leverage and hopefully value in my own unique way. I hope you find value in these posts.
Expected Points and Ceilings
Gonna start with a different view today. First I am looking for teams and QBs with high usage but low output. We can throw Mac and Kyler out since they are island games. That brings us to Goff and Herbert as two candidates to break out.
Coincidentally the Chargers have skill positions who also have breakout potential over their average. Finally, both teams also have decently high value when looking at their expectations so will keep that in mind through the position breakdown.
As far as the slate is concerned, Lamar appears to have the highest ceiling, followed by Mahommes at half the ownership. The matchup may not be ideal, but this is what GPP is made of. Risk and reward. Onto the positional!
QBs
As fate would have it Lamar comes in above the line while Mahommes is slightly below it. So is Herbert and Burrow which makes me like them a lil less as my dart play. The guy standing tall though? Jared Goff vs Dallas. Dallas defense is good and this can backfire. However if paying down, he has a great path to victory followed by Derek Carr who is 3 times more owned.
RB
If there is any position where this chart matters the most, it is running back, which is headed by the chalkiest of Jacobs, then Ekeler and Fornette in a close second. I do like the position of Mixon PIerce and Hall as well for half the Jacobs ownership. The glaring blue dot would be Jeff Wilson and thats pretty much expected now that Mcafrey is in the mix. No telling his new workload to come.
WR
The high end WRs are a bit tougher to get to this week for value. Instead I'm eyeballing Amon St Brown because I immediately have a stack to consider that is low owned, potential value if the game goes like most detroit games, and leverage to Dak who comes back. Other notables (if healthy), Reynolds, Curtis Samuel, and Amari Cooper if you want to run back a Lamar stack, as they are all seeing decent workloads over the past few weeks.
TE
Well well well.. Lamar's top target looks like the top value and usage on this slate. Not sure hes 100% healthy but that really makes the Lamar stack work. Otherwise we have TJ Hockensen also floating by himself. After creating his new ceiling a few weeks go, it will be interesting if he can do something like that vs Dallas. Njoku also is involved in this Baltimore game that is crying for attention. Everett and Engram also playable.
Defense vs Receivers
Considering all the names mentioned, its time to see who has a good matchup? I see Njoku coming back, and Samuel. Everett as well. Unfortunately the passing game favors the RB for detroit so that sorta dampens my hope on panning out this week.
Vegas
The Chargers/Seattle game is now more intruiging again, because of totals on both side indicating the shootout. I am confident in sayingthat the ownership will follow that game without even looking. Baltimore and San Fran are both teams who I project going over their implied totals and so their players may be worth a second look again.
Offensive/Defensive line matchups
Sorta projecting the pressure and the lack thereof. Green Bay leads the pack :p Will likely rely on ownership to dictate the other defenses I play.
Usage - last 5 weeks
When filtering to last 5 weeks, I calculate Elliot's usage to be around 30%. He may come in the least owned of all those who reached that threshold on this slate. I'm not sure i pay up for WR this week as a result.
Summary:
It would seem that Baltimore is the play for me and Ill try to make it work somehow if they are healthy enough. Dallas is up there too, and I can see this as a strong case to play Elliot. It may pair well with Dallas defense even, because I do not project Detroit for a lot of points, but do see the pass rush potential there, creating more rushing for Elliot and maybe Pollard to ruin my week.
Projections
Left side for Fanduel, Right side for Draftkings. Good luck!
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