With 2 games tonight, I'm not properly equipped to swap player lists in and out and track updates for 2 showdowns so I am going to focus on the one in Vegas tonight. This is a battle of two bad teams and low key I want the scoring to stay low for my personal gains. However I find these bad franchise games to be a little unpredictable which sets up perfect for my purposes of finding leverage. There will be multiple angles below to being smartly unique tonight, so pick the angles that speak to you the most. Lets go
Player Usage vs Salary
Updated for percentages
Based on the last 3 weeks of work, Bijan has had the highest workload of everyone in this game. He also carries the highest salary and seemingly the most ownership. What do we do about that? Normally my strategy consistently puts that player in the flex for having such a high workload when needing 6 spots filled. We will have to monitor leverage to say for sure if this is the pathway or not. Meyers seems to project well and Abdullah seems to be on the cheap dart side. At the very deepest of darts I see Ross Dwelley sitting out there but that is a large field 'hope he falls in the endzone for 1 catch' type play.
Vegas Expectations
Based on my projections, I have this game showing the ability to go over its implied total tonight, which is bad for my purposes. Vegas projects someone who can cover the spread and therefore I have to naturally favor them in a lineup at this point. If they go off or somehow control the clock with long drives, maybe it limits Bijan's ability to do the same?
Game Scripts
The Falcons will likely try to run the ball (their strength) vs a bad run defense. I think if they wish to pass, they could try that but Kirk has struggled.. super risky so I expect low ownership from him, wondering if they pull the rug on him mid game. Meanwhile the raiders are good at nothing specifically, but slightly favorable in the passing space.
Just sitting this here to see how this projection turns out tomorrow, but it seems that the Raiders may have more shots to pass. WIll they actually be successful though with more opportunity? (note O'connell not the projected starter).
Defense vs Receivers
My highest projection actually goes to WR1 for the Raiders tonight, which is Meyers suspectedly. Perhaps a path to that type of captain play at less ownership? The WR3, which is really any non primary WR means that dart opportunity is out there for someone to take a low snap count and make something of it in the passing game too. Kyle Pitts is otherwise a thing in a good spot for those who think he could steal the touchdowns in the redzone from Bijan.
Redzone Targets
While Pitts is not the primary or secondary redzone target, he is the 3rd. If either London or Mooney don't open up, I could see Pitts getting a touchdown but its not cheap enough to feel good about that with his workload. On the opposite side, Mayer looks like he is cheapish and is in the same position for the raiders, so maybe a dartish play if Bowers has no leverage tonight (which he probably does).
Leverage positions for Atlanta
Updated! Things have shifted pretty well since the first update. Now London is showing as The leverage at captain for Atlanta. I may bite on this, with Ray/Koo/Pitts still showing leverage in flex and Bijan still decently projecting for a flex spot imo.
Previous: Confirming Bijan is by far the top owned captain tonight, while Cousins is the bigger captain leverage for atlanta. Bijan has points left on the table, but is also more leverage at captain than flex. I will however try and put him in the flex. Otherwise Ray-Ray and Younghoe are the only two players showing flex leverage at the top. Falcons defense is in play if going 4 deep vs a pass heavy Raiders team.
If I'm playing Bijan captain, I take all 3 of those flex players with him in the flex to maximize the leverage while filling a game narrative that Atlanta controls the game due to Raiders turnovers.
The alternative reality where you fade Bijan is because you expect Kirk to throw the ball to Ray Ray or London and Kyle Pitts who also has flex leverage.
Leverage positions for Las Vegas
Updated: Brock or Ridder is your pivot here. However I'm sold on going with London at captain at this point. The Raiders have a terrible CB projected to cover the side where Mooney runs routes but I like when theres a clear cut leverage guy showing so I'll take it and see what happens.
The Raiders have more players with points left on the table. I have the raiders projected to potentially outperform their expectations and none of these guys hold a ton of captain ownership. So Bowers/Ridder/Meyers all have leverage at captain and I would favor Meyers of the crew for that reason. I find it difficult to expect the Raiders to do well enough for 4 stack but I will build one due to the 8 value players showing in the points left on the table section. Carlson and Tre look to be heavy leverage in the flex if you think Ridder is successful tonight.
Interesting Players in the Player Pool
I highlighted the names that stick out the most from a value perspective here.
Optimal Lineup
Updated the optimal and forced London to the top to see how it might look. This looks almost playable except I dont like Raiders defense, especially without Crosby.
Just peeking at this optimized lineup from my projections. Its a bad lineup based on the ROI so I dont suggest you build this. However maybe its telling that 4 Atl players may end up making sense after all, with a few different flex options at the least. I don't see that playing Kirk/Drake/Keyton in the flex make sense. Anyways good luck if in there tonight!
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