While this is one of the tougher matchups to decipher, it must be done. Lets get some money tonight.
Workload vs Salary (last 3 weeks)
What does this chart tell me? Justin Jefferson is the most expensive player on the slate, and his expected points are on par with Sam Darnold's, who has a slightly higher total ownership expected. I imagine that you cant have one without the other on the slate but it will be a high cost. A tier below (which might be biased by week 18 play) is Kyren and Puka, who are in a very highly focused offense. If you drop about 50 feet below, we find an oddly priced Kupp for the workload he has seen in that span. he is also half the ownership of just about everyone else in that price range for the talent level. In the dart range I see Colby Parkinson out there in single digits as the backup TE. Backup because of Higbee returning quietly.
Vegas Projections
I project the rams to win by 3, although this game is compromised by the location (Rams home team but it is in Arizona). The current line is around -2.5 Vikings so one would assume that the Vikings will get it done, but I believe there are some extreme outcomes possible tonight based on how the coaching game plans prepare their teams for today. I will say that the Rams resting week 18 might play to their favor, which is how I have this game projected to finish.
Game Script
The Vikings will face the perceived weaker defense in run and pass, giving Darnold a path to points. In my weekend writeup, Darnold showed up as potentially the optimal fit for the week as well. The flip side shows the number 1 defense in DVOA is the Vikings, and 5th best against the run, so the Rams might struggle to move the ball in the air. Im sure that wont stop Sean Mcvay or Stafford from trying.
Defense vs Receivers
This wont be the first time these teams have met, but what we see is a clear cut WR1 space for Puka to operate from, or several holes in which the Vikings might find space to work from (RB, WR1 or WR3).
Byron Murphy is likely to cover the slot, which is likely the routes that Kupp are running. Therefore I'm not so inclined to get to Kupp today who is going to run those routes most often.
In terms of deep balls, Minnesota is average against the deep ball while the Rams rank well below average on the deep balls.
Optimal Lineup
This time looking at the value plays that popped up in the optimal. I see the Rams, Ronnie Rivers, and (when removing Rivers), Josh Oliver all showed up as value plays projecting higher than expected. One of the 3 might just end up optimal tonight. The other 4 are sorta expected to be there in some capacity and we just need to figure out which ones will give us the best chance of a top finish, rather than a min cash or missing the mark.
LA Leverage Spots
There are more plays on the Rams side that show potential so I am leaning towards 4 rams in my primary lineup. If playing Puka, it seems that he is the leverage at captain, although he is also the highest owned captain on the slate, which makes me want to avoid doing that. Kyren, Stafford and Kupp also show as potential leverage at captain. Karty and Higbee have really high leverage in the flex side. There is a path to playing the Rams DST today in a 4 stack for the Rams.
Min Leverage Spots
I am seeing much more leverage on Aaron Jones as the top captain today. If you believe the Vikings win, perhaps there is merit to starting there or Addison as captain who are expecting single digit ownership at the spot. JJ and Darnold also show as leverage there as well, with Hockenson showing as flex leverage.
Also noting that I am expecting that you want 14 points per person in your lineup today, which make the darts high risk. So many expensive captain options will force lineups to the dart range. Maybe the balanced build will be the best route today. Check back for updates!