NFL Monday Night Football Odds, Leverage and Optimal Lineups for DFS - Draftkings

Reposting this to see if I can get my visuals to load.

Updated: 11/11 6:49 pm CST

MNF DFS Salary and Workload Expectations

When measuring workloads over the past 3 weeks specifically, this chart gets a bit tricky. Kyren Williams has gotten the majority of the workload for the Rams followed by Kupp. We also have had Puka in and out of the lineup which shuffles workloads for Tutu and Demarcus Robinson a bit so they wont necessarily reflect well. Normally I take a look at past 5 weeks and may end up pulling that later, but this is roughly where folks show up in the value areas. Last week we had a situation where someone in the dart zone scored a touchdown for the first time in a while so I told myself I'd pay attention down there. Tyler Johnson and Tutu Atwell are those cheap plays and so we need to see if they are on the field enough to warrant a dart tonight.

Vegas Totals

The total for vegas is only 1.5 points in favor of the Rams, but my sheet is showing it could be around a touchdown difference depending on the version of Miami we get tonight. Even then, we are potentially looking at 4 touchdowns to 3 and our goal is to capture as many of them as possible.

Snaps

Tyler Johnson has been playing a decent number of snaps for the price point so he is definitely intriguing.

Projected Catches and Yards with Redzone Priority Ranking

Demarcus Robinson has been the top priority in the redzone over the past 5 weeks surprisingly, and Tyler Johnson has been 4th overall. Therefore I have high interest in playing one or the other tonight if leverage supports it.

Defense vs Receivers

This looks like we have very specific funnels on both sides tonight. I peeked at a WR vs CB chart and confirm that WR3is a funnel spot for the Rams, and honestly that could benefit either guy. On the flip side, Achane and Waddle appear to be the most interesting for the Dolphins.

Game Scripts

It appears that we are expecting a bit more passing out of Miami than the Rams. The Rams have an easier path to success in either direction but the touchdown estimates say that WRs for Miami have a better opportunity to score than for LA. For what its worth, it seems that the Rams are also expecting to have more success on 3rd downs than Miami, which indicates they may control the clock and win.

DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer

It is early but this is what the projections in my system are giving me by default. I wont like, I kinda like it. Slight projected leverage and positive ROI in a 4-2 build. It has cashed 4 slates in a row too. I will rerun again tonight.

Updated:

I just updated everything and somehow ended up with 5 dolphins + Kupp. I will enter this but clearly need to find 2 pivots here. I still believe in Rams stacks.

Leverage when LAR is stacked:

Updated: I'm going to try and call out things that I may not have mentioned yet. Defense is kinda projecting above expectations and I'm leaning towards Tyler Johnson a bit more as that lonesome dart. Kyren Williams usage is extremely high and Kupp projects above expectations as well. That is totally contingent on him being WR1 vs WR2 to Puka, who projects poorly for me.

One of the coolest things about this view is it tells me which team I will be most happy in stacking. 7 players showing on the Rams side that have the ability to exceed value so high chance I take 4 Rams tonight. Kupp is in a good spot so he might be ideal at captain but Kyren and Stafford both have captain leverage, with Stafford suggesting single digit captain ownership. The early indication is that Puka is the chalk at captain and if that sticks, I like playing Kupp or Kyren or Stafford even more.

Leverage when MIA is stacked:

Updated: Achane may be the highest owned captain (which I usually love fading), but his leverage is legit. I will try to play him in my entries. Jonnu and Dolphins defense also project well or above expectations. Then we have OBJ who is in a revenge narrative vs the Rams (maybe).

Everything in today's writeup favors the Rams side being the best of the two teams to play tonight. However we still need two plays. Tyreek Hill is showing really high leverage at captain which could be a game changer in terms of builds. If Waddle works out he is showing more leverage in the flex than captain side. These numbers may shift tonight so I'll wait and see before building.

Final Leverage Thoughts

These are the top 4 owned captains in order. We know the chalk has been pretty good at identifying plays but we cant play all 4 of these guys tonight. Which one is going to fail?

I believe that leverage tonight is in getting to the right passing game. If Kyren or Achane aren't rushing in touchdowns, it is due to kickers and QBs getting them points elsewhere. Tua and Stafford are low in expected ownership in those spots and that is direct leverage on either Kyren or Achane captain lineups if they pass to a WR.

Now the tricky decision to me is choosing between Puka and Kupp. Similar projections, Kupp is more expensive, and I believe will be the lower owned of the two. If Kupp is the true WR1 in this offense then Puka is the fade of the night for me. You make that choice but just know that the lineup should stack in any way you decide to roll it. Good luck!