Well I wasn't going to do a writeup next week after Sunday's horrible showing by both my selected QB and top overall DST - literally the worst two plays on the slate. Meaningless games are not good for my system and thats exactly what I got for targeting either. Not to mention, backups throw off my entire system, so next week I'm not doing but maybe a couple showdowns for the games that matter. Tonight though - the revenge narrative might keep this one interesting so lets see what the dashboards say.
Updated!
Usage vs Salary
Over the past 3 weeks, Goff has been the busiest on the field amongst these two teams, over Gibbs with Montgomery out and over Purdy, with 2 of his friends as well. 4 of the top 5 usage plays on this board are from Detroit, and if Detroit wants to run it up (as they have done all year) just maybe they keep their guys active til they get hurt in this meaningless game. The two best dead zone value plays look like Tim Patrick and Sam Laporta. Deep punts are Jemar Jefferson and Sione Vaki if they play. A QB captain is viable in normal game circumstances but I am unsure I would do that without a punt in the lineup as ownership sometimes balloons up on them guys.
Vegas Projections
Surprisingly the game is the first one all weekend with a 50 pt total, and I have it projecting over that. Monday Night games tend to underperform but just maybe this one is different. With the 49ers being the underdogs, perhaps there is value to be had there.
Game Script
Detroit has a clear rushing advantage tonight with their strength vs the 49ers weakness. Maybe the 49ers also want to run with their 3rd string RB tonight.
Defense vs Receivers
The sweat spot on both teams is with the WR2, and also with the SF RB vs Detroit in pass catching situations. Is that Deebo? I left him in WR2 because of the target share sliding down for him. Therefore he will project better.
Optimal
The optimal has the plays split down the middle at 3-3, although I will likely land on 4-2 in favor of one of these teams. As of nowJuana Jennings or Jameson Williams might be someone I'd slide up to captain and rebuild with based on captain vs utility leverage.
Detroit Leverage Makers
Updated: If leverage prevails, we are down to St Brown as the best for Detroit, or Jameson for captain.
There are 5 plays showing up here that have points left on the table. St Brown and Laporta captains seem to make the most leverage although Gibbs and Goff are better leverage at captain than in the flex himself. Might fade him tonight (maybe) in favor of passing game, but we will see when its time to build. Laporta has leverage in the flex spot.
San Francisco Leverage Makers
Purdy is the top odds captain on the 49ers side, but Jennings and Kittle both have leverage. Deebo showing up as flex leverage now as well.
Only 3 plays here with points left on the table so I am leaning 4-2 Detroit stack tonight. Jennings, Kittle and Guerrendo all have captain leverage vs flex leverage. Pearsall and Moody seem to have the most flex leverage for the 49ers. Purdy, Jennings and Deebo all look good in projections though.
Top Captain Ownership with leverage potential
Things can change but Gibbs appears to have the most captain ownership on the slate, Jennings behind him but also showing some leverage at captain. So what ways will Gibbs fail tonight? The run game looks like its a great spot for him in a game where the 49ers have nothing to play for. I confirmed that pass pressure and run stopping shouldn't be a factor tonight based on oline vs dline matchups. So what else might happen?
Detroit passing game: None of the top 3 plays involve detroit passing, although Gibbs is 3rd in team targets over the past 5 weeks. If for some reason Goff decides to pass it at the redzone, every touchdown not to Gibbs will hurt his value.
Backup RB: Can Craig Reynolds or Vaki the dart vulcher one from Gibbs in a meaningless game? Maybe so
Opposing RB: If Isaac Guerrendo has a big game and the 49ers control the clock with long drives, it not only hurts Gibbs, but could also hurt all 3 of the top plays a little bit.
Good luck!