Opening Thoughts
I had some realizations this past week after some chats and posts around the success of those using this content. First thank you all for supporting this NFL season as this is the reason I continue to push this stuff out. Sometimes its good to chat and understand the different thought processes that go into these builds.
One thing that occasionally surfaces - especially on good weeks is that I get credit for getting things right. I will say that what I provide is the differentiating way to look at any given slate, and that is always focused on leverage. So at any point, when it appears that I am right, I dont think that is the real truth. Instead, I would suggest that the path to leverage over chalk was moreso right, while trying to break down what the tools I have built over the years are telling me. They were all built for a purpose at one time or another, and so they are good at identifying the situations to tweak your build in calculated way that might contain risk, but will also contain some reward. Tonight will be a huge test towards how we can gain leverage on the field in what appears to be a one sided arse kicking contest. My recommendation is to figure out where your bias is before reading to see where things are different than expected. Onto the post!
Salary Based Expectations (last 3 weeks)
Updated! MVS is out, Heath is out for GB. That really throws a wrench in this slate doesnt it. This is the new slant and its gonna be quite crazy projecting where all the workload goes outside of the TE position. I recommend checking the leverage when I update that in a few mins! (still in transit)
While its way to early to focus in on ownership, this is the first breadcrumb tonight. My bias was mentioned already -that we think GB stomps out the Saints and likely runs the ball and plays defense, winning 30=0. That is the way many folks will think and approach this slate as well. This chart seems to support that, when seeing Josh Jacobs standing on a ladder over the next closest player -> Jordan Love. He is also standing on a ladder over the next 3 players (Doubs and Reed), which feels like an onslaught of some sort can happen. The funniest Saint who has shown the most usage is Rattler followed by a former Packer - MVS, and hes showing 20% ownership. If that revenge narrative hits and his ownership stays low, that could be interesting of a play in some capacity, yet 4 packers still have higher expectations than he has.
The middle of the field in terms of pricing is mostly all saints with Wicks and Kraft in there. The Packers defense is priced up like they could be a contributing player tonight, owned higher than MVS. With Kamara out, we have to assume that usage will increase for likely most of the Saints on this chart
Vegas Expectations
These numbers do not account for injury or weather, BUT I will say that the Saints projecting for 20 points is kinda wild and against my personal bias that they wont. I also show that the Packers could go 1 point under expectations, so if that were to hold true, the value on the saints players will allow for upside at lesser ownership than we should actually see. I bet there isn't a single Saint that will have double digit captain ownership tonight for example (and maybe for good reason).
Game Flow Success
Welp the Packers are top 10 DVOA against the run and pass so that doesnt help with any confidence in the Saints offense. The Packers are top 5 in both run and passing, but seemingly should be able to rush much easier than pass tonight. Unless we believe that Jacobs gets some rest before Christmas vacation, he's pretty much a lock in the lineup, likely flex for me due to his price point.
Defense vs Receivers
DVOA says that the Saints actually lock down the WR1 position pretty well. Some of that ranking likely came from Lattimore, but hes been gone for a couple weeks while this number continues to remain that way. The tough part for GB is understanding who the WR1 is anyways, as that could be mighty important tonight. WR2 and TE have funnels so one WR could end up with quite a bit of work. Maybe its Reed who is WR2 but I'd be guessing if I said any name there with confidence.
The Saints will fortunately have a path to success with their TE position and thats really the only path I see for them. Maybe they both can end up getting extended targets?
Redzone Targets
Just paying attention to the pecking order of the last 5 games, these seem like the most likely to get used if a team gets close to the redzone. The Saints love going to their TE position, but MVS and Mason Tipton could end up being guys who end up with the ball too.
Optimal Lineup Construction
The optimal also says that this will be a blowout based on the number of packers who landed in this lineup by default. I dont think I could play this one with only the Saints defense as the 5-1 stack, but maybe there is a variation that makes sense.
Green Bay Leverage (updated)
This is the first time in all my showdowns where I want to waive the white flag and play the chalkiest Jacobs I can play. He is now leverage in captain. But regardless of what makes the most sense, I am going to consider the alternative for 1 lineup. Watson and Reed are still captain leverage only. McManus is flex leverage still.
It is super early and ownership likely shifts later, but just in case I dont make it home in time, I'll highlight the findings. Jacobs is showing as leverage in the flex but not in the captain. Love, Reed, Doubs and Kraft all have leverage there though. Only 4 players with points left on the table, and it seems the Kicker has leverage as well, granted its cold so I doubt we see a bunch of 50 yarders. Wicks and Brooks could be interesting in the flex for more of a dart approach.
New Orleans Leverage (updated)
Imagine a place where Rattler does something? I really cant either, but Rattler, Miller are still the captain leverage with Johnson showing as flex leverage along with just about everyone else. The thought process would involve Rattler likely rushing or passing to his TEs. I do believe if you can get to 2 or 3 Saints somehow in the flex, you will have found some form of leverage tonight. 5-1 Saints will also make sense too.
If you wish to get different and weird in the GPP space, you could go Rattler or Kendre Miller in the captain spot and definitely gain leverage at potentially sub 5% ownership. Then pretty much every Saint you play in the flex will have leverage because most people are looking for 5-1 stacks tonight. Johnson seems to be the top flex leverage play for the saints in the flex in terms of probabilities. Mims and the Saints defense are otherwise the dart throws outside of the 4 players left on the table.
Good luck and I hope to have updates tonight, but they are not guaranteed with the holidays.
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