Opening Thoughts
Its playoff season, and while there are many paths ahead to playing this slate, there are not many games, which means that we must be closer to optimal to get a takedown than usual. In case you missed it, I found an article stating that DK and FD both lost millions of dollars this season due to favorites winning at record pace. This trend wont continue forever and I recommend being prepared for leverage builds to bounce back heavier. I'm going to continue this path til it hits.
Update: Added Phi vs GB charts (no analysis)
Workload vs Salary (GB vs PHI)
This will be one of the compromised games this week, with Philly resting starters although I did my best to get 3 game samples. With that said, AJ has had the most work followed by Barkley. I'm not a huge fan of this because of the injuries, compromised data and then the feeling that a chalky Barkley finish will end up winning with him getting rest last week. The only other outlier would be Wilson and maybe Bo Melton here, where I do have GB in a good rushing situation, so just maybe he snags one if I were deep sea diving today.
Default Optimal Lineup
Updated opto!
Without any decision points made, this is what it spit out - 4-2 Philly build. I do not like Hurts captain with him showing negative leverage but lets see the alternatives.
Green Bay Leverage Spots
Love, Doubs or Reed appears to be the ideal captain spot. In main slate I know I tried to get to some Doubs today with the idea that he could be the WR1 so my lean is on him, but Jordan Love is only showing 3% captain ownership so if I were to go Green Bay for 4 stacks, itd probably end up on him (if hes fully healthy). Wicks has leverage in the flex and has points left on the table..
Philadelphia Leverage Spots
The top 3 captain ownership projected are all Philly players, thus causing some issue. AJ and Devonta are both the top captain leverage. There is more leverage playing Barkley at captain than in the flex if playing Barkley. I'd imagine that itd be a stretch to force all 3 in one lineup. Goedert is leverage in the flex.
Ceilings vs Salary (Sunday)
This is always my starter kit because I like to get an idea of who has done the most work first, whether or not the work has led to touchdowns. Yesterday it showed us Derrick Henry, today we see Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. I will say that the Allen numbers are based on week 15, 16, and 17 due to the record he was chasing for starts on week 18. Unfortunately the rest of the Bills include week 18 since I dont know who all played as much as he did. We also have Jalen Hurts coming back from a long break so his workload is compromised in this chart as well, but I also ensured we have 3 week sample from him. This is a QB heavy slate, so points will come from several angles, and fail from multiple angles too. Evans, AJ and Barkey have all posted the highest numbers from skill positions. Zaccheaus seems to be the best value for his price on the cheaper side.
Game Scripts
The Vegas totals normally go here, but I have them below in yesterday's section. Here I want to know what the team strengths and weaknesses are based on DVOA. Washington is facing a pass funnel that we have seen all year. Baker is in the best of the passing situations, yet none of the QBs grade as a 'good' spot. Infact 3 of the pass defenses rank top 10 today,, and 5 of the run defenses are top 10 as well, with 4 rush heavy QBs on the same slate.
Summary of Key Metrics
One of the reasons that Buffalo projects worse in their team total is because of projected pass pressure. The important thing there would be that Josh Allen 'has' to run today or he will end up on his back. Most of these views will reappear when I go position to position.
The Buffalo, Philly, and Denver will all face an above average defense when it comes to stopping rushing QBs. This continues to favor Tampa vs Washington for QBs.
Projections and Optimal
Heres how things are laying out. There are a few options at WR this time that may be able to sneak in over the double TE. RB projections are a little more flat as well.
The main slate optimal is favoring Tampa and Washington plays so no surprise there. Philadelphia defense and then some random value plays. Still on a double TE build because of the lack of perceived value at the position.
Sims
With 3 games on the slate, the projections for total lineup target still went down. We do want to ensure we have a pathway to 160 pts, and QB is important to getting us there, as 28 pts will come from that position specifically and it is clearly the salary option at 6900 projected salary for the optimal QB. Lets see who checks the most boxes.
QB
Putting it all together, no one checks more boxes than Bake on the slate. His game and team are projecting to go over the team total, he is the highest usage, his salary is hitting the sims range, his projection is top of the projections, his ceiling is within the threshold of the target score, and he has 2 WRs projecting as top plays on the slate. So hands down, that is the top play for me today. His ownership is also not the highest owned but check back before lock in case that bubbles up.
All that said, he isnt the only play that seems to make sense. Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels are in the realm of possibility. I would say Josh Allen is feasible if ownership goes down, but i'd be looking to unstack him somehow to get there if we think he reaches and everyone else fails.
RB
RB is a little bit more tricky to project in the sims because the price of solid workload is paying up way above the range expected. There are two RBs expected at this position and my takeaway is that RB is third most important position wise, although several of these RBs I probably could have scraped from the list to get more accurate. Nonetheless, James Cook is going to be my favorite from this list because he checks the most boxes but doesnt project as the top play. I will also mention Bucky here. Nothing wrong with eating RB chalk but I will say that he is 5th on my projections and yet he is the top owned in projections, which is the red flag I noticed yesterday with regards to defenses. He is highly owned for good reason though, but just like going with Henry and Mixon, just gotta find the right pieces to pair with him to break the ownership through stacking most likely.
WR
So I'm peeking at WR projections and its importance to points. WRs have a wider range of outcomes and therefore a wider range of variance and expectations. One guy we can safely say is getting his work is Mike Evans, week in and week out. Dallas knew that they were going to throw the ball to him for a 3 million dollar bonus and he showed that he was still unstoppable. For that reason alone, I will not doubt him in a lineup this week. Sutton vs the Bills is not extremely highly owned and he is the top projected so I want to go there, but going to Sutton will cause a need to get to 2 cheap plays for sure. I circled a few names that I found interesting for under 20% ownership. One thing in common is that I solely focused on GB, Denver, Tampa and Washington WRs, and avoiding Buffalo and Philly WRs, just due to them lacking top options in projections. Many times the name of who hits is incorrect, and if that is the case, at least we can find other pivots within the team. For example if Wicks is not the WR1 today for Green Bay, maybe it will be Doubs.
TE
Ertz and Cade Otton are my two favorite TEs on the slate. They are pay up TEs but pay up is still sub 5K. The issue with Ertz will be that he is likely the chalk at the position today (and I hate chalky TEs), and Otton is back from an injury and really not projecting a ton of workload while in a good spot.
These are the names of TEs who are most likely to catch a touchdown in the redzone, which adds Goedert for 3900, Kraft at 3700, and Kincaid to the mix. Kincaid is going up against Denver who has been good at covering TEs, so he is my least favorite on this list.
Top Ownership
Normally I simply look at the top owned play and try to identify pivots. However the top owned play has been owning lately, due to being a good play in a good spot, so I'm going to look at this wholistically and give my final thoughts.
Bucky Irving: he is clearly in more than half of lineups today and the only play like this. That opens up two doors.
My top projected QB may just decided to air it out to Evans + 1
Opposing RB might be a thing today with Robinson. He slightly projects better than Bucky for whatever reasons. I dont ask too many questions. I just wanna win a GPP and understanding I need to differentiate, this one is interesting.
Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels are 2 of the top owned QBs in projections. I dont have anything against Jayden here, although see above, at how that pivot helps get in between ownership and lineups. Josh Allen being highly owned with his WR1 is crazy to me. It almost makes me want to play Denver Defense. The issue there is that defense ownership appears to be flat because no one ever knows what to do with DST. I'm playing the Eagles first and foremost, but Broncos and Bills DST are 2nd and 3rd for me.
************************************yesterday***********************************************
Ceilings vs Salary (Saturday)
This has been a 3 game sample and the interesting thing this week is going from week 18 to wild card weekend, these 4 teams have their week 18 game included in the sample, as I believe they all played most of the game. Because of that, I see Herbert's usage is highest of the crew here. Wilson actually shows signs of value, although Pitt is on skid row. Hard to imagine they come alive randomly after being off for 5 weeks. Ladd, Dobbins, and Henry all look like the highest ceilings for skill positions on Saturday. Metchie and Schultz from Houston both have decent value showing on the cheaper end.
Full Slate
Now seeing Baker up top is interesting in single digit ownership position. I'll be honest, I've played Baker more than I should have this year, and most times I did, he put up 3 or 4 touchdowns, but under 300 yards. The most annoying thing, but I will def have some interest with his usage being up like that.
Vegas Projections
Overall the obvious high score is going to go to Washington and Tampa. I project it to exceed expectations as well. Then a very close looking game on my sheet is Buffalo vs Denver, where Denver is projecting 1 pt less than Buffalo, meaning there is an upset alert possible, if they play like they played vs KC's backups last week. I have Buffalo showing under their total, but their number may be under projected with Josh Allen sitting out last game as well.
I see Baltimore is set to exceed the Vegas team total in my projections. If sticking with favorites, it is fitting to just take some part of Baltimore in a smart stack. The 2nd game looks to favor the Chargers so I foresee a lineup with those two teams stacked as best as possible, with maybe a hint of Houston plays, unless we find a great low owned value play for Pittsburg.
(update) Adding in one other key note as I review the totals, Minnesota is projected by Vegas to score 24 pts, but I do project them under that at 21. This means that the Darnold play may not be as friendly as I would hope it to be below on the big slate.
Summary of Situations
A couple things stick out to me, where Tampa is facing a bad run team, and Tampa has run blocking advantages showing. Bucky is likely the chalk but one thing we learned this year is that favorites hit heavy, so perhaps good chalk if the price is right. Otherwise Darnold or Daniels should have the best of the QB situations this week for passing purposes. Then either a GB or MIN running back to go in this week, depending on how we see the game script going.
Game Scripts
Darnold actually gets the best passing situation on the slate, and coming off a bad loss, will he bounce back? Green Bay is likely to end up in a negative game script, but will they get shut out?
Defense vs Receivers
The Packers actually have a strong funnel ahead to their WR1, but who is it? I doubt it is Wicks but he has had the most targets and catches in the past 3 games of their starters. Minnesota faces the worst pass defense left. Then Pittsburg also has a strong WR1 funnel too, but can we trust Pickens not to crash out? I also like what I see for Denver's passing game, where either Sutton or Mims or both may find operating room.
Sims
This is where the main slate sims fell for me, which is kinda odd. I'll go position to position to show the players that fit the criteria.
QB
By using sims, the optimal path is showing 6500 is it, and Sam Darnold seems to land on that number. His upside is there and is QB situation is ideal, against a bad pass defense. Therefore Darnold also projects the best so... hes probably going to walk me right into a trap this week as that will be my first lineup. Note that the game is moved due to fire to Arizona but as long as theres a dome and not outdoors, I have to think that helps him. Ensuring he has a path to one of his pass catchers being stacked, I will start there, and potentially double stack since he isnt mobile. The 2nd play that fits the build well, is going to be Baker. He doesnt have one of the top QB situations so theres risk but 2 reasons will land me here: 1. Being a top usage play on this chart with 2nd best projection and 2. If Bucky is the chalkiest play on the slate, just maybe this is reason to pivot to the passing game.
RB
I am taking a look at running backs now. Running backs I dont mind eating chalk when it makes sense. I am looking at these top 5 above the line and tried to pick my 3 favorite, based on projection and position on the chart, but really all 5 names about Jones make sense. However if I am to pick ou the one that sims like the most, it seems to be Aaron Jones. I dont know that I want to pair him with Darnold yet, but he is facing a team where their offensive line can win. He projects 4th best with a ceiling that can reach 18 points. His salary is right on the button for the average salary for that position as well, and he has one of the top rushing boosts based on my algorithm for finding teams that are likely to rush touchdowns. Henry is tougher to love but seeing the game script totally favors a blowout win, that is a play that feels safe. The issue with Henry is his price point requires him to get 2 touchdowns to be worth it. However he is safer from bust territory if you think the others fail.
Honorable mention to Irving and to JK Dobbins because I do like their spots this week and will be playing them. But in order to pick the 3rd 'system RB' that makes the most sense per the data, it is actually Kyren Williams. With lineup construction it doesnt make sense to play both Jones and Kyren but they could succeed together due to pass game work. He projects better than Jones so it is a consideration I have to make, and they have several of the same advantages. Gibbs just ran over them for 3 touchdowns so clearly some weak spots in the run defense for Minnesota as well.
WR
Circling out the guys who show as value in workload over the past 3 weeks while aligning them to the other charts, I have 4 selections that could end up with workloads. The issue will be the cost of them related to the rest of the lineup as 3 are top tier and 3 are mid tier WRs.
If going dart range, there are a few names like Shepard that could pan out in place of a top tier WR. In the playoffs, I feel that the teams will try to get the ball in their best player's hands more often than not.
TE
I circled a few names that stuck out the most for me. One of them will be Isiah Likely - who is likely my first choice. Mark Andrews is pulling the ownership at the position because he is Lamar's favorite target, and because Zay Flowers is out, and the matchup is good for TEs. However sims say not to pay up for TE, and down in the cheaper range is Likely, who is above the trend line already but will potentially run more routes with the injury. Both show up on projections simply because the spot is good for TEs but I think just targeting one in a lineup makes sense. A few other names could pan out too that are circled based on the the defense and projections for their position. Ertz and Freiermuth are those candidates. Pat is cheap enough to consider, and Ertz is expecting a high scoring game on MNF. Will Dissly will be more of a dart play with Stone Smart potentially stealing from him.
My Projections
Update: In the most recent update of ownership, I got Ravens as top owned DST followed by the Chargers. I am full fading the Chargers DST since I projected them at the bottom of my pile. The Rams DST is somewhat interesting in the non Darnold lineups because I do project Minnesota to potentially go under their team total, which would correlate to that.
Ravens DST looks to project to be the best bet this weekend and I believe they will be popular. The WR mix is interesting, seeing Johnston as a top projection. Could end up being Ladd there or him, but based on positions and price, he might be interesting.
Main
My top projected defense is the Ravens this week, which is the top priced DST as well. It checks out as none of the Pittsburg players really project well other than crashout Pickens. Lets say that no defense scores a touchdown this week. Then we may want to consider a value play in the Steelers, but then that compromises players vs the DST which I dont typically do. The TE spot seems like it is one that could have double TE this week unless a clear cut value emerges.
Saturday
With only 4 games to choose from, we end up with 'slim pickens' and other Pitt players showing in the optimal over the Houston players. I'm sorta surprised to see it land that way, but seeing Nico as a highly projected play this slate, I dont mind trying to fade to get different. In that scenario, it would indicate that Houston underperforms and Pittsburg does better than we expect.
Saturday Sims
The Saturday slate hints at paying up for QB + RB, likely due to Lamar and Henry projecting high. We want the most points to come from those two spots, where 25 pts and 18 are the points for each position to target in the 2 gamer. WR and TE are very closely behind but perhaps a value play getting a long touchdown is how we get to those.
In the case of who falls closest to those totals, Herbert at 6000 and Dobbins at 6200 seem to land there, although I do believe you will want either Lamar or Henry in your lineup based on how well they project against the rest of the field.
Pivot Notes
These are the top 4 projected ownerships on the 2 game slate. The reason I'm adding this final thought is that a 3rd name not pictured here is the Chargers DST, projecting around 30% ownership. If Nico does well, how does the chargers D get there? If Chargers D does well, how do Mixon and Nico get there? Something has to give.
In my projections, I have Mixon = 2nd highest RB, Nico, 5th highest WR, and Chargers, 4th highest DST, of 4 teams. It is easier to leverage off the Chargers DST than anyone, but at 70% ownership, that isnt going to cut it. I could make a case for Mixon - and will, by building another lineup with him in it (as I currently have 0). Perhaps there is someone to pair with Mixon as well, to build on the leverage?
It seems that Texans DST might be a thing to do it sensefully unless going shootout, in which adding Stroud and Nico may make more sense (at a higher lineup cost of course).
Lineup Combos for Sims QB and RB
In the QB and RB space, Herbert is the only one that hits the mark for that price point. I believe you could pay up for Lamar but for the purpose of this exercise, I'm going Herbert due to price point. He has negative ROI on his own, so we likely need to find either a high return on ROI in the RB or WR space. Henry and Dobbins will bring us back to the most positive space in terms of ROI, although their total projection isnt that great.
WR
Only looking at the 3 WR pairings, Wallace (or Agholor), Pickens, and Quentin seems to pop out with the best chances to match at their price point and goals. However if you are expecting Justin to do something worthwhile, you may as well find a way up to Ladd in the stack.
TE
To me, there are just 2 decisions, Andrews, Likely or Freiermuth (or some combination of the 3. Smartt and Dissly dont look good in terms of ROI. You could get there with pairing Dissly elsewhere like with Andrews if its value you are seeking but that may all come down to salary remaining.
LAC vs HOU Potential vs Salary
Based on what we saw in the big slate above, I do have LAC winning this game and covering the spread, so it is only right that we see the potential lay out in favor of LAC. I will say that this game includes week 18 which may have biased the data a little in favor of LAC as well, but Houston did play some of that game and therefore trying to determine their real workload is a bit tougher than you'd expect. Nonetheless, Herbert is atop of this chart and therefore likely to be included in my stack in some capacity. Dobbins is still questionable but in a good spot. Gus and Chark appear to be dart zone candidates.
Optimal Lineup for Showdown
From a leverage perspective I dont really like this build, but seeing that a 4-2 LAC lineup came out of it, it feels like something that could work out with a few tweaks to the personnel in the lineup.
Houston Leverage Pieces (updated)
No big changes to talk through here, but I do have some slight interest in seeing the Houston side through. Either team can be a letdown in the playoffs based on their history, and understanding that the field likes the Chargers DST, there is natural leverage in the Houston side, although tough if you only play Nico or Mixon or both even. The TE and Kicker and slightly on the Texans defense to some extent just because of that, but remember to correlate your lineups! I will also point out that Stroud at captain appears to have single digit ownership potential and checks all the boxes for leverage.
Something interesting here is that Nico, the best WR in the slate and top 5 in the NFL this season IMO, does not project well on my side. It is due to LAC's ability to slow down WR1s. Nico is likely good enough to exeed that projection, BUT because he projects as the top owned player on the slate at captain, I'm fading him in showdown and main slate. Nico IS showing leverage at captain though however for those playing him, and so is Stroud. Schultz, Fairbairn, and everyone else below are flex leverage. There are not a ton of edges to feel great about so anytime I see potential, I will take it. There are several players on the 'points left on the table' side, which make me want to take 4 Houston today. Maybe I do that as a secondary lineup.
LA Leverage Pieces
Similarly no real changes here. TE and K flex spots are still the heaviest leverage. Quenton Johnston is losing leverage in the flex so I am leaning towards Dissly, with either Herbert, Ladd Or Dobbins at captain for a Chargers build. Dart lineups might try a Quentin captain and jam in the rest.
I am seeing leverage show up for Ladd and JK the most, while Herbert also is right on the border, for captain leverage pieces. Quenton Dissly and Dicker all show up as good flex leverage pieces. Houston was a good pass defense for most of the year, so perhaps they slow down the Chargers a bit today, and if so, the 4-2 Houston build could make sense, although my gut says that LAC wins this and I'm sorta leaning into that. If they dont win, I may end up with Quenton + 1 other play that makes sense in a stacking sense (Herbert?) for the Houston stack.
Baltimore vs Pittsburg Usage vs Salary
Henry has been on a tear and has surpassed Lamar as the top usage on the field. He likely gets a place in my lineup. I see a low owned Pickens in this sheet beneath both QBs, a few TEs and Pitt RBs in the dead zone, and then.. Van Jefferson or Keaton Mitchell in the dart zone. Not sure I get to them darts unless playing a QB captain, which I believe Lamar is likely to be the highest owned captain, so theres that.
Baltimore Leverage Spots
For Baltimore, there arent a lot of points left on the table which is a concern for value, similar to what we saw with the Chargers. Mark Andrews looks like the top leverage at captain, although Derrick Henry also has some leverage too as a captain play.
Pittsburg Leverage Spots
None of the Pitt players have double digit captain ownership expected, but Pickens and Warren both have captain leverage if you wish to go there. I could see a path to 4 Pittsburg players somewhat but it isnt likely. Lets see how the optimal lays these plays out.
Optimal
I sorta like this lineup so I'mma play it as is!
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