Ok so this season, I spent a lotta time recreating data points that I lost with sites going down like fantasy cruncher. I used to get player lists, salary, matchups, and other bits that most people probably don't normally think about. Since then I have rebuilt so much of my sheet that perhaps it is better than before. Now, this past week, I spent some time creating my own optimizer!
This is a missing component to the data I release, as understanding the lineup construction possible is critical to building a good lineup, as opposed to grabbing players that are in good spots and patching with value. The optimizer connects directly to my unique projections and will give us an interesting way to look at things in addition to what we have.
If you are up for donating to the cause, please send what you are comfortable with to my venmo, @Sedric-Hibler. Not a requirement to use my data but it would be helpful considering the increased cost of this data.
Lets go!
Ceiling Finder
This first chart is meant to measure who has the workload with the potential to get you extra points over the expectations. Imagine the diagonal line as the expectations for the salary. Any name above the line has that natural potential to exceed if they score the touchdowns and catch or run or pass without dropping the ball.
Jalen Hurts as the top ceiling based on his workload after 5 weeks. Kamara, Jayden and Lamar are all right there behind him. Ceedee looks like he has been priced out of his realm due to scoring touchdowns but that will eventually bust if not already.
Jalen on the other hand is averaging 19 pts per game but should be averaging 23. Bo Nix is the other guy averaging 15 but should be averaging 19, so they have the most potential. I like to point out single digit ownership guys closer to the top in addition to Nix who isnt getting any ownership. Saquon, Devonta, Mixon, and Brown all live towards the top. Essentially if Philly goes off, that grouping could be in play together although its expensive. Bo Nix and Sutton are likely handcuffed in this way too as a cheaper stack.
Vegas Edge
The goal here is not to get the score right, but to identify places where the team and game totals exceed or the expected vegas score (or fall beneath it). The left 4 columns are Vegas numbers. The right 4 side are my projections. The Baltimore / Washington game has a healthy Vegas total. It will be popular. My sheet supports targeting it as good chalk potentially. I also see Chicago is an underdog, but my sheet says that they should win outright. That makes Chicago interesting. The Dallas game? Could also be popular but I have Dallas covering the spread, but the game total going under expectations, so that is something I might build towards. The final 2 games of interest are the Green bay game, which I have exceeding totals, and then the unknown in New Orleans and Tampa, with backups in key roles. I will also point out that Philly (since I mentioned their offense in the previous chart) does not look like they are in a good game environment as I have them projecting way lower than I expected, and even losing. They come off a bye week so they may still surprise me with the loads of offense that we are used to, especially if AJ is back.
Summary of Situations
My key metrics are on the left of this chart, and then the teams or players who fall in that space on the right. Rather than talk through them, I will make reference to this chart in the pages to come.
Optimal Lineup
I did say I had an optimizer, although I never claimed it was pretty. As of today, its just a command line interface so I can run it and see what my optimal looks like. I want to reference this as well going forward.
A note about how optimizers work and why its important. Most projections in the industry are based on the average expected points for each player. The optimizer tries to find the max combination of those averages. You should never expect that lineup to be good enough to win a tournament, the max of averages is not going to consider upside. Therefore we should look at it to determine if theres a better pivot available and I'll do that in the positional scatterplots.
Update: While writing this, I realized that Shaheed was listed as WR1 incorrectly and reran it to get this lineup. Leaving both looks up though:
Onto the positional scatterplots.
QB
I break down each of these charts by position to see who we can pivot to based on chalk. The % is the projected ownership and the names you see here carry some form of neutral (0.8 leverage score) or higher leverage. Note that someone like Rattler starting for New Orleans isn't going to show here because there is no history for him, although he might be intriguing for his price this week. Nonetheless, I will say that i prefer to play a QB on my summary page, under the 'top QB situations list' and surprisingly, Lamar isn't listed there. The guy who he faces is there - Jayden and he's slightly higher on the chart. Therefore I will recommend Jayden if targeting that game.
The optimized lineup says that Jordan Love is the best bet. He is in the top QB situations and he gets Christian Watson back. But what if Jordan Love fails? CJ Stroud is 1.6% but without his best weapon, Kyler Murray is not showing as a value, but is in a good spot for lower ownership, and then we have Fields and Nix in games that just aren't that interesting in the totals. You can also pay up for the more popular game and get Jayden, as long as you save money elsewhere in the lineup, but for now, Love, Kyler and Jayden are my favorites, unless punting all the way down to the unknown Rattler.
RB
With RBs, there is quite a bit of value that appeared on this slate due to injuries. Since they havent carried the workload to date, it is difficult to say whether or not they have value in this chart. If their team is in a good situation for RBs in the summary, they are likely worth it. For the known RB workloads, Kamara has the top one, with top ownership to go with it. Bijan and Montgomery are who the optimizer plugged in as projecting well. But what if they fail? Gibbs, Mixon and Conner are all in the single digit range of those plays. My RB finder says that New England, Tennessee and Arizona are all positioned to have more rushing attempts. Either Connor or Murray may end up rushing a TD or 2 in with a good game environment. Gibson is Stevenson's backup so maybe thats the guy I would recommend if paying down at RB.
WR
AJ Brown is intruiging at 6% ownership although coming off an injury, its unknown if hes really healthy and full speed. Cooper has been floating value for a while but is untrustworthy with Watson. Diontae Johnson has the top workload. The optimizer pointed out Flowers, McLaurin and Mooney. If those guys fail, then there may be something worth looking into with the single digit owned guys in this range. Dell and Diggs are low owned even though workload should rise for both, Shaheed with his new QB, and Jameson Williams/Pickens (if not suspended). Oh and Marvin Harrison is only 3.5% owned which is oddly low and useful, especially if going for the Arizona side of that game. Cooper is going to eventually catch the passes in his realm so I hate to leave his name out when hes 5% owned and getting work.
Defense vs Receivers
Essentially anyone who is listed on this list in a good spot is likely going to remain that way - aka McLaurin could be.
TE
Juwan Johnson was the optimal play and hes showing 2% so I may just stick with that. Friermuth could be in a better position for points and same with Daltun Schultz at 4%.
Projections
These are the projections for the week. It is very odd that the Browns and Eagles are on the list this week, but that is partly why the game score projected so low. Just maybe it negates the Eagles offense. The Bucs vs New Orleans rookie QB is interesting as it could go both ways.
Sims (experimental)
I haven't turned on much with the filters yet, but this gives some indication of the ranges of outcomes. It looks to be a high scoring week so we must shoot for 200+ points in our range of lineup outcomes. If theres time I will get the showdown information together tonight or early morning tomorrow!
Chicago Bears vs Jacksonville Jaguars Showdown
Salary vs Expectations
The offenses are mostly driven by their QBs so Caleb and Trevor both seemingly have the top workloads and ownership expected. Surprisingly the prices on Swift, Moore, and Thomas, their key weapons is a lil bit higher than both. On the cheaper side, both Strange and Carter appear to have some decent expectations at their price, for almost no ownership. It was likely driven by Engram and Keenan being out though.
When Chicago has the ball:
I have Chicago winning 25-17, so naturally I will see what I can do with this side first. Caleb Williams has the top expectation, but I hate knowing that he is the highest owned captain. In showdowns specifically, I try not to take on that role even if the leverage is pointing right at it. What is a lil different here is that his points left on the table are also high and so I will likely build 2 lineups, one with him and one without him entirely.
The question we have to ask is, 'what happens if Caleb fails'? Whether its by injury like Jordan Mason or something else happens to the expected touchdowns, preparing for that is how we find leverage on the slate. I'm building 2 entries to account for this. The decision has to be either 1. We think the Jags defense terrorizes the Bears and they underperform? or 2. The Bears are still going to score without passing touchdowns. If number 2, we may be able to build for Swift at captain, and figure out how to fade Caleb while collecting those points using a meaningful stack (RB+WR+K+ ??)
When Jacksonville has the ball:
Captain Leverage on this side is a bit less defined, but I will say that Jacksonville has more players leaving points on the table than Chicago does. That means, I may end up taking 4 Jaguars as my first option. Etienne is one of the more intriguing options here as well since he has single digit ownership at captain expected. Per the Defense vs Receivers chart, I see that the passing environment is not good for Trevor Lawrence in this game. However Chicago does have a weakness against WR2 and the deep ball, so if someone like Kirk or Engram lands a deep ball that might make for good value. Its middle of the field routes that this favors so Kirk's spot is very interesting as the slot WR.
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