We have a 5 week lookback period to discover where the usage, leverage and ownership will end up this week. So far, the public has truly owned NFL outcomes and I'm still looking for a huge breakout week. Shoutout to those who were bold enough to play Zach Moss last week, as he single handedly would have won your week if you stuck with him (who was highlighted as the top leverage in projections). There are many replacement players this week for value to consider.
Updated: 9:51 am CST
Showdown content added at the bottom! - Updated: 7:05 pm CST
Ceilings vs Salary
Last week, Jalen Hurts had the highest ceiling and he carries that bag again this week. He faces a team that gives up the 2nd most rushing yards to QBs coming into the matchup so I assume thats where most of his points are assumed. The next closest plays are Kamara and Chase in the Skill positions, with much more ownership. Kirk and Sam Howell are otherwise two QBs who have intruigingly high ceilings. Note: the percentage showing is projected ownership.
Summary of Situations
I will reference items on this chart as we break down different things to look for, starting with team totals.
Vegas Expectations
Miami is going to continue to project high thanks to what they have been doing lately to Denver and such. KC sorta let down thanks to weather and poor play in the redzone. Next up we have Buffalo showing extremely high totals, while Seattle/Cinci showing a high game total on both sides, and over the vegas total. Lets compare the ownership to the projection totals.
Interestingly Detroit vs TB is going a lil bit underowned. Injuries? Weather? Look into those things but perhaps some point potential here that we can take advantage of.
QBs
There are 3 QBs who stand out from this chart. This chart looks at workloads over 5 weeks and determines who has the workload to match the salary when they maximize on their scoring potential. Hurts/Cousins/Howell have all been the top 3. If the game situation aligns, I'd recommend those 3 as the top tier plays this week, across the price ranges. Per the summary, Cousins and Hurts both have the better situations to face this week from a passer perspective. The tie break for me will be whoever has the WRs projecting the best. Note: JJ is out and so his volume may go down slightly - although I do think that makes his stack potential intruiging for value
RB
CMC has been priced above his workload and ownership has caught onto that. One thing to note is that if the other RBs bust, a low value CMC may still be worth playing. Kamara usage has been higher and so it will be interesting if he has a good matchup. His usage isn't handcuffed to game script so he just looks like a good play on the surface. The saints also get a boost to the running game per the summary page. I cant say that Zach Moss makes a ton of sense but for the price and ownership it is worth another dart entry in GPP.
WR
Last week, Higgins was out and that gave Chase a ceiling game against the Cardinals. Similar workload has followed Puka and he is half the ownership as Chase, which makes him intruiging, even with Cooper Kupp coming into the lineup. Jakobi Meyers is also a name that stands out with single digit ownership expectations. WRs and TEs are worth monitoring in the Defense vs Receivers section below to find who might have even more advantages.
TE
Zach Ertz has remained uptop in workflow / expected points for cheap. It feels like one week he will blow up for value but it is difficult to chase. However I will do so while he is in the single digit ownership especially, as he is similar in workloads to the highest priced (Hockenson). TJ is interesting because of Kirk this week though so I wont rule him out of being in a lineup.
Defense vs Receivers
I typically will seek out funnels in the defense here. The names may not be the direct alignment to the role so use it only as a reference but double check the lineup. Also note that not all names in the role catch passes and thats what this chart is about. Funnels that stand out: The Jets TE against Philly - who ranks 32nd against the TE position. Also Stephan Diggs vs NYG, in a game projecting points. Keenan Allen also in a good spot if healthy.
Projections
Here are the top projections for the week (left is Fanduel, right is Draftkings). I would encourage to look at the situation moreso than the name when there could be someone else in the given role, like Puka vs Kupp. Otherwise I will say that Zach Moss is showing as leverage mainly because no one knows what to do with him when Jonathon Taylor is out there. YMMV so risk accordingly!
*******************************Buffalo vs NYG Showdown*********************************
Lets add the final Sunday night game insights below with the same formula.
Expectations vs Salary
Unfortunately Tyrod doesnt have any data to speak of for the year so he looks out of place, although we know he will do better than that 3 pt range. Josh Allen and Diggs are the top 2 in expected points which is going to be quite chalky and expensive to use both. So I will immediately look at the cheap darts, where Harty, Gray, Campbell and Harris are all cheap with around a 5 pt potential if they are playing. I assume we may need one of them if we play the top two guys in the lineup.
Vegas Projection
Vegas fully expects a blowout. 15.5 points is a lot of points. However we are talking about the Giants with a backup QB. Buffalo expecting 5 scores - possibly all tds or a blend of FGs if its anything like we saw with the Chiefs game. That gives it the potential to go over the implied total and Buffalow covering the spread. I am pretty much preparing to do a 4 or 5 man Buffalo stack tonight as I do not want to stack the Giants, despite the leverage that will come with doing so.
Defense vs Recievers
Diggs is in the smash spot and that makes him captain viable despite the leverage that we see next. On the other side, maybe Paris Campbell is the guy? Really the WR1 is the best bet for Tyrod, granted the QB is not in a good passing situation.
When the Bills have the ball:
Updated: Gabe Davis now showing as captain leverage so I am going to update my lineup from earlier.
Allen and Diggs both show as plays that are best found in the flex. They are both also high usage and that makes me want to make an exception. However I will build to the leverage my sheet gives me at least in one entry while going cowboy in the others.
The defense and kicker for the Bills are both in play to me, although I can also see them getting juiced up just a bit too much. Lets wait and see how ownership changes before lock, as an overowned defense is always something I will target against for variance reasons. Tyler Bass is the top guy with captain leverage and so that is intruiging if this game plays similar to the Chiefs game from Thursday, where FGs are scored in place of the projected TDs. That is asking a lot though.
When the Giants have the ball:
Update: Darius Slayton might actually be viable in the captain spot.
Wan'dale is the real WR1 but not showing properly due to missing 2 games so far this year, and therefore he is the most likely Giant I will roster. I am not sure if I will go 2 Giants just yet but if I do its likely Barkley due to his high usage in the offense.
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