Before I begin, I need to ask a favor from all reading this. My startup business is a finalist in a pitch competition to win money. The money will help us expand on our educational 3D real world adventure game that teaches kids how to code (based on Kansas City landmarks!).
Coding is essentially what led me to creating these writeups to begin with -> and now we are trying to give that same skillset to middle school students using our 3D game. I am asking for you to like and reshare the video below, as that counts as a vote for us. This video is our pitch and a sample video of what we our game looks like, which is quite dope. To vote:
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Now, onto my free insights, which have quite frankly reached their peek effectiveness for those who played Thursday night showdown. Lets go situation by situation and find how we want to approach the slate!
Ceiling Finder
The data points have been quite helpful for me in the past couple weeks in writing this article, and as usual, I will write this live as I review this with you for the first time. Kamara seems to have the highest ceiling in my tools when looking at potential points over the last 5 weeks. Hurts has the 2nd most and seems to live up here due to his rushing td upside. Chase is 3rd and top for WRs, and Kelce seems to lead the TEs although his points are not quite as high as other positions like usual. The low ownership of Hurts, Howell and AJ is the most intruiging. Barkley and Jordan Love (surprise) are also high with low ownership expectations.
I can see that Hurts, Herbert, Love and Howell are all in line to have a blowup game soon per their averages so those are guys to keep on the look out now and in the upcoming weeks.
Note the percentages listed are ownership projections.
Vegas Projections
Thursday I was shocked to see that I had projected the exact score for the Buffalo Tampa game, which had 450-1 odds payout for those who might have bet that. Otherwise I am looking for high scoring matchups that could exceed their team or game totals. Miami vs New England seems to have quite a bit of upside there. Note that weather needs to be reviewed as this does not consider that. New Orleans is 2nd which is intruiging as I see they have potential to cover and upset Indianapolis. Houston vs Carolina is 3rd highest expectations, so we should likely favor plays from those games.
A game I may look to avoid is the Jets vs Giants. Defensively it may make sense to target one or the other, but it doesnt feel like points are going to be very high if the defenses have their way. Tyrod has played better than Jones so maybe that projection is a bit biased as well.
Underowned Games
Just maybe New Orleans vs Indy is the game of the week? I see expectations are higher in points than ownership shows so I may try a game stack there in a cheap entry and hope it pans out. KC vs Den is next but we know its going to be cold and wintry.
Summary of Situations
I reference these situations as I build my lineups here as these are all favorable situations towards big play potential in the slate to come. I will look at position by position next, starting with QBs. Note that Mahomes, Love and Tua have the best overall QB situation (minus weather). The best QB play will end up being based on which WRs can help the QB reach their projection/ceiling though, and I will rely on projections for that. Onto the positional plots!
QB
Again, Hurts has the top upside but also top priced. When looking on the cheaper end, Kirk is intruiging in no mans land and no ownership land. Love and Howell both have the most value in this position. Plays above the line indicate value for their price. Dark blue indicate some extra leverage in the play.
RB
Kamara seems like a good play this week, especially with the matchup expecting points. At less than half the ownrship expected, Kenneth Walker could end up being a pivot to several RBs this week so I like that play if no weather impacts it. Zach Moss continues to haunt me since no one wants to play him with Taylor back. I expect him to slowly shift downwards on this chart. Henderson seems like he could be a cheap value if not Mattison.
WR
Selecting WRs is a bit tricky but I do favor volume for 1-2 of my plays for sure. AJ with single digit ownership is intruiging. Theilan and Chase seem to rise above the rest in their volume over my 5 week span. I will rely on projections and my defense vs receivers chart below for other insight here.
TE
The Chiefs have a winter style game ahead in Denver so that makes me want to avoid Kelce. He has the highest ceiling each week by a mile though and not very high owned. Otherwise Waller and Schultz look quite intruiging. Mark Andrews in single digits has to be liked if you like Lamar this week.
Defense vs Recievers
I like to look for funnels and high usage players in good spots. WR2 vs Minnesota looks like a really good funnel with Doubs (if he is WR2). The names towards the bottom face the worst pass defenses as a whole, but also have many options to pass to when the defense is bad. AJ Brown is a standout if he is the WR1 for Philly. With single digit ownership I'm interested here or Devonta Smith, but not likely to play both together.
Oline vs Dline
I use this page to spot mismatches in pass and run blocking. This is how I locate my spots for top defenses. The Jets over the Giants looks like a solid idea. The one caveat to the pass rush advantages is when facing a mobile qb, many times the QB can gain rushing yards rather than take sacks when pressured so gotta watch out for that.
Projections
I list the top 5 projections on fanduel (left) and draftkings (right) here. They have different scoring systems and therefore I project based on those. The thing that may go overlooked on my projections is the top 5 defenses, as usually I have a diamond in the rough down there. This week I should be heavy on the Jets defense unless there are significant injuries involved.
I hope this helps, but note that it is only Saturday and ownership updates will come in as inactives change. There are hundreds of users who have began reading this post and I am hoping that translates to likes in my facebook post as I mentioned. Please help me win there and I will continue to help you win here as well!
Load our post: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=796119645595119
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As a bonus "thank you" for those who have already helped like and share my video on facebook, here are the fanduel based positional charts as well:
QB
RB
WR
TE
Good luck!
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