Tonight we get the final of the Wild Card series - Bucs vs Cowboys. Dallas is notorious for doing stupid stuff in this round and I will keep that in mind as I build my lineup. I'll be looking at my charts for the first time with you as I build this page so you can see my thought process.
Updated Stacking Charts 6:06 PM CST
Expected Pts vs Salary
What I see here as I plot out the player's expected points vs their salary is that both Dak and Brady are leading the slate with expectations (and ownership). Next up is Mike Evans who seems to have an ownership discount. Anything above the line is considered a value, so at the cheaper end, Noah Brown, Cade Otton and Thompkins are all potentially a value at little to no ownership.
Snap Counts
Week 18 always makes things weird. Tampa sat their starters in the first half and so week some of our values may be slightly off. Therefore we may get an idea of how things panned out in week 17 with these teams and before.
Darts
Several low owned guys here if you don't wanna sacrafice too much up top. Also works well for the jam em in approach. Julio might be healthy. TY is healthy. two names youd have never guessed would carry low ownershp. Cameron Brate also down there in 2% land. Ideally any one of them catch a td and reach value- maybe a lil more than that at 2500, but its unique construction nonetheless.
Defense vs Receivers
There is a sharp funnel for Tampa to work through, aka WR2. Due to target share, I have Mike Evans listed here, but that could easily be Godwin as well. As I dig a little deeper, I can see that the Cowboys have been shutting down one side of the field pretty well -> left side of their defense ranks 3rd, while the right side of their defense ranks 24th/middle ranks 17th in DVOA. Therefore I want the WR who is running most of their routes in the middle or the left side. These WRs in Tampa seem to move all over the field, but Godwin actually has the highest chance of seeing the middle and left side thanks to running so many slot routes. Otherwise Julio has run half of his slots on the left side of the offense to Evan's at about 30% of the time. I am unlikely going to pick one based on this chart, but moreso based on the leverage.
Vegas Expectations
I have this game going under its implied total. However I have Tampa exceeding expectations which means Dallas likely underperforms (go figure). There is a pathway for Tampa to cover the spread even. Last time these teams met, there was a shootout and therefore that is likely what folks play towards. I am thinking a kicker goes in my lineup this week.
When Stacking Dallas:
There is some value in targetting Dak at captain as well as Schultz. The kicker also has leverage here too, especially as leverage over the shootout options if they underperform.
When Stacking Tampa Bay:
It seems that Brady is a stronger leverage play at Captain than Dak is, with leverage pointing towards Godwin as of now. If getting to 4 Bucs, a Fournette vs White decision has to be made in addition to whether or not you take a kicker. Good luck!
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