After a good showing last week, I'm looking forward to more football, as this is the time to shine and grind. Data is strong enough and will be pulled in a slightly different manner than most sites. I project my own numbers for points but rely on projections for certain items as well so this blend is unique and so is the approach. Its time to hunt the top prizes.
Salary vs Expectations
I look at these items live with you as I pull them so you will get some raw reaction to what I am seeing here. First off, the higher the player name, the higher the expectations in the workload and points. Kamara is way up top and therefore we will need to start thinking about if he is viable as captain or flex. Ownership is up there too so then we consider whether or not we can possibly fade him in this matchup as well.
There are several options in the upper salary tier who are interesting but tougher to fit when playing Kamara. On the cheaper end, we have a clear cut Miller or going Jamal Agnew range. Then we also have the random Taysom HIll in the mid leverage spot and that is just plain annoying. However it does seem like the Saints may have a better shot at upside from the first look.
Vegas Projections
Vegas has the Saints winning by 1.5 points. I have them winning by 1 with rounding so that line is pretty sharp. I have the game total going over by 2 points so there really isnt a vegas lean thats worth targetting to me. I will favor the home favorites at this point and hope the away underdogs are overowned come game time.
As far as pass and run blocking, the only advantage I see is with the Jaguars blocking well, which might account for extra time to make things happen. Both teams seem to be good against the run, although volume and passing to RBs can still make them viable.
In showdown I always stack 4 or more players from 1 team because most lineups will have 3 from each side, especially in a game that projects close.
Defense vs Receivers
Neither team will have a good WR1 matchup or TE matchup. The best bet for both wil be auxillary WR options and that makes things tricky. Zay Jones has been pretty good for volume and Shaheed as well so just maybe they make sense today. I could see drives stalling in the redzone as well so FG kickers could be a thing too.
When Jacksonville has the ball:
Captain leverage seems a bit weak right now, and Etienne usage is high enough to warrant it. Maybe the kicker as well but thats all thin and not a lot of wiggle room for being unique. Agnew, Strange, and Farrell have the most flex leverage potential.
When New Orleans has the ball:
There is some leverage showing with a Carr captain. However he is also playing through injury so whether or not that is a good idea is still undecided. Otherwise the Kicker is the only other leverage as of now at captain. Kirkwood seems to have the most leverage as a flex play and hes only projecting for like 1 point so theres some risk in that attempt.
Check back before kickoff to get a stronger read on leverage!
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