Just a quick hit of data to help you craft a lineup tonight. I'll be brief unfortunately but check out my previous writeups if you need help understanding data points. The goal is to identify ways to stack a team successfully in a large field GPP without being too chalky and by finding good leverage spots. Lets go
Updated: 6:37 pm CST
Expectations vs Salary
I am looking at this for the first time live as I write the post. The Broncos are in KC right now, and while it is a bit windy, I will say that Mahomes was brought here to cut through the elements. The 2 QBs have the highest ceilings based on their height on the chart. Kelce is right beneath Wilson and then Pacheco starts to peek around the corner as well on the top side.
On the cheap side, we have several options that are above the line, and CEH is the cheapest next to Justyn Ross. They will be without Frank Clark who I hope gets released back to KC during the game. Lets assume the Chiefs are the best play.
Vegas
It seems we are covering tonight based on my unbiased vegas totals. However I never feel too comfortable when AFC teams meet, as that is a ton of points. The over is in play if the chiefs do get to 5 tds tonight as projected. Note that the Broncos are also expected to excel too so there may be value in their side if you get the right two plays. Note, I stack all my lineups 4-2. Looking at the oline vs dline, the most favorable blocking is with Pat vs Denver with some negative blocking expected for the KC RBs, unless they are catching passes.
Defense vs Receivers
Denver defense looks way bad against the pass and I believe it is due to what Miami did to them a few weeks back. Maybe they arent this bad - but it really means that Mahomes should have a field day with any WR who can catch. Denver has more of a funnel to the TE, and so Adam Trautman might be a good play.
When Denver has the ball:
Russell Wilson looks to be a potential candidate for captain tonight. It makes sense too if playing behind as expected. Last game vs the Chiefs he did have his season highs if I recall correctly so maybe he puts up some points. The pairings with him though are low leverage unless dippin down to the cheap WRs like Brandon Johnson.
When KC has the ball:
As of now, Skyy Moore looks like an intruiging dart for captain if you really wanna go there. Kelce actually has more leverage if playing him at captain vs flex, and same goes for Mahomes. To get really contrarian, you may have to take a shot with Blake Bell, Justyn Ross or CEH though. Pretty much a guessing game as to which Chief actually gets the ball unfortunately and that is why Kelce ownership stays so high. If Kelce is still slightly hurt, Noah Gray could also be in line for some extra looks, which would be the longest shot at captain.
Check back for updates if time permits!
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