NFL Odds and Leverage for MNF Draftkings GPP - ATL vs PHI Showdown 2024

I havent written one of these in a while so why not just go ahead and post one up for tonight. Granted the data is still weak and I still dont have my tools at full capacity; something has to give; hopefully its draftkings giving me some money tonight.

Odds and Situations

Just taking a look at how things are panning out value wise. we got players all over the place. Maybe missing a couple too because I dont have the same method of pulling the players as usual. However with what we have, it appears that Ray Ray is on a value island. Drake London is posting some value, and Barkley is the top name. The low long distance dart of the day appears to be Charlie Woerner, at potentially sub 5% ownership as a TE who might catch 2 passes tonight.

Vegas vs My Vegas Projection

The over/under is in alignment with my sheet and I have Philadelphia barely covering the spread. Word on the street is that Kirk didnt look so healthy last week so perhaps that is going to be the lean, although that means no edge in just stacking Philly alone. Gotta likely find some dart leverage. Kinda reminds me of last night's game where it was a one sided arse kicking contest.

To my surprise Atlanta actually should be able to win the battles up front in run and pass blocking easily. This is kinda rare vs Philadelphia as their core is usually solid. Maybe Atl is set up to uniquely play against Philly, who also has solid pass blocking but not nearly as good in run blocking.

Defense vs Receivers

Ray Ray stands out here from the looks of things. Turns out he had 6 targets last week for whatever reason. Now hes in a good spot. The questionable thing for me is whether or not he got them targets based on game script or if the true WR2 is Mooney. Lets dive deeper into this:

Short sample here, but Philly has been weak against outside routes, and deep routes as well, it appears that 75% of Drake London's routes actually are ran on the outside, which means... I may just go with him tonight if salary works out.

When ATL has the ball:

We are expecting that they might get 2-3 tds or a bunch of FGs and under perform. Bijan would be the most likely captain in this case on a normal week for me. However, I have this theory that because he had 50% usage last week, they will save him this week due to conditioning. They play the Chiefs this Sunday night too so ATL has a tough run ahead. Therefore I'm leaning Ray Ray and maybe Koo, but if fully stacking ATL, I could see Drake and Kirk getting involved too. Allgeier could play more snaps if I'm right on a usage shift this week.

When PHI has the ball:

Leverage is leaning towards Hurts at captain. His 71% usage last week supports it and quite frankly he might be forced to pass more often than not this week, even with AJ out. Barkley is also a viable capt play but his 40% usage will not stand if hes got tired or sore legs like everyone else did this week. Something else noteworthy is that PHI only has 2 TEs on the roster, so getting to one of them would be nice - Goddert has the leverage there in the flex.

So to me I think its obvious and maybe we all build the same lineup, but who cares- lets win.