NFL Odds and Leverage for MNF Showdown - New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs

This game takes place like 20 mins from my house and I can start by saying that the Saints fans traveled deep today. I fully expect the to circle the wagons if they do actually win tonight. Therefore I hope they get sent home singing the blues.

Salary vs Expectations

What we see here is that Kamara will be the most expensive and owned player on the slate, but also the highest expected points based on his usage in the offense. Carr and Mahomes are quite a bit closer in usage, to the point where Carr is actually leverage over playing Mahomes. Shaheed is showing as leverage as well, to playing Kamara to some extent, if they take on a successful air attack. Then we get a single digit projection for Carson Steel now that Kareem Hunt has resurfaced as the starter. The cheap value I am looking at is within the TE range. Juwan Johnson, Noah Gray and Foster Moreau all low owned but good spots I believe, for cheap.

Vegas Total

I will say that I do project New Orleans to not only cover, but to win outright. Yesterday the line was -5 points for KC and that sounds way too high. Rashee Rice is super important to this offense and this is the first real challenge without him in the lineup (Chargers dont count because they suck).

Snaps

Week 4 snap counts matter to me the most as this is where so much shifting happened in KC. One thing that stands out is Moreau outsnapped Johnson last week. Also noting Adam Prentice is someone I havent heard of but has played 24 snaps a game (special teams??) Hes 400 bucks so 1 catch is massive at that price. Also noticing Juju's snaps did not go up even though Rice went down. Justin Watsons snaps did go up instead.

Defense vs Position

The defense somehow favors a good passing situation for Derek Carr. Its wild because I am not sure Ive ever seen Carr beat the Chiefs while Mahomes has been here, but all signs point to that happening tonight. The Chiefs have a slight funnel to a deep ball, which is Shaheed's specialty. Oddly enough he hasn't been great in man coverage which is something the Chiefs use often. We will see if that pans out.

Offensive Line vs Defensive Line

KC should be able to run the ball effectively which means I will go forward with a build in which it focuses on KC run in addition to a lineup in which Carr somehow gets the deep ball to drop.

When the Saints have the ball

I am fully prepared to not play Kamara in captain if I do a silver bullet lineup. However he is in a smash spot with supreme usage over the field. Lately I just refuse to play captains projecting with double digit ownership at captain, so its overwhelmingly Derek Carr for me at captain. Maybe the kicker makes sense here if the KC defense holds up for some stops but I dont love that either. Then I'd definitely take a TE to pair with him and maybe 1 other pass catcher. Also the expected vs actual points for the Saints doesn't favor anyone worth mentioning after 4 weeks, so it is possible that they stink tonight as well.

When the Chiefs have the ball:

Mahomes and Kelce are both double digit ownership at captain, but also showing leverage there. I cant do that per my current system, so that pushes me down to Hunt as the next best option. He had 30% usage in week 1 and so its unknown if that workload comes right back tonight. but playing the unknown over the unlikely is how we cruise to the top. I am also going to limit my lineup in the flex spots to 1 or 2 of them double digit ownerships. Mahomes may be the one left out if Hunt is the build, and then perhaps Kelce or Noah Gray could make sense as pairing pieces. A very rare but potentially OK path would be to play 2 RBs or 2 TEs from the Chiefs with all things considered if getting to 4 Chiefs. I cant do Skyy Moore under any circumstance. Good luck!