Figured I'd get a page started so we can all look at some options on how to attack this weekend. Keep in mind a few things as data will be a little disrupted due to Buffalo/Cinci missing 1 game of stats and then Week 18 screwing up some usage elements as well.
Updated 8:50am CST for Sunday Slate
Updated 2:00pm CST for NYG/MIN Showdown
Updated 6:10pm CST for CIN/BAL Showdown
Ceiling vs Salary
This chart attempts to find the players with the most expected points on draftkings based on their salary and workload over the last 5 weeks. Josh Allen is going to have the highest ceiling on the slate, which is quite common. The two names right below him are on the same team -> Burrow and Chase. They wont be the lowest owned plays but the pairing is going to be the highest expectation together. Some names may move into extra opportunity this week but note that this chart doesnt find those situations. Onto the positional breakdown.
QB
When pulling the QBs over the trend line of expected points vs salary, I see Burrow as the best value. The cheap guys don't strike me as someone it makes a ton of sense to own unless you are looking to shave ownership. Cousins and Jones are both within the value realm and area playable, especially in the event the game shoots out again. Infact, lets peek into the top QB situations on the slate:
From a usage perspective, only Allen and Burrow provide the floor you want. However the game environment for Daniel Jones is the top environment of all quarterbacks when looking at the situation he faces. Something to note is that Miami has given up the 2nd most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year and now they face Allen again. Minnesota is facing a weaker pass defense today on this slate (as well as top value on the chart). In other words, I can see points coming from quite a few QBs today, and depending on who you want to pair with these guys may be the best way to choose your qb.
RB
Using our compromised stats, it would seem that Mixon has one of the highest expectations on the slate, slightly over Barkley. Mixon is missing his week 17 workload but Barkley did miss week 18 so maybe that balances out. Then quite a few RBs are bunched up around 5k, where Wilson looks to have the best value. Accoring to this chart, Barkley mayhave the most value at RB per his expectations. Lets look at the game environment for these guys:
It would seem that rushing is something the Giants may be able to do well. There are two primary rushers on that team, and Daniel Jones/Barkley both likely get all those touches, which makes that stack fun. Baltimore ranks high in my special RB finding section, which is intruiging as well. I may avoid it due to the backup QB situation but if this team rushes a TD today, I wouldnt be surprised. Who would do that? Maybe Drake, Edwards, Dobbins or even the QB- which is why that situation may be avoided by me.
WR
Chase and Jefferson will have the highest upside. Hill is intruigingly low owned, and with his QB, it makes sense why. The Giants are showing the most value at the position with Either Richie or Isaiah as cheap guys who get a decent workload. Revisit the Defense vs Receivers section to see who has the best opportunity for doing well.
TE
Hockenson went off the first time these two teams met. He is well above the field here. Dawson Knox is also in a good spot usage wise per his price, as he shows as good value. I hate chalky TEs usually but maybe I land on one of them. If I want to pivot, Isaiah is Likely the play I get to.
Vegas
All 3 favorites are expected to win today when I look at my expectations on team totals (right side). The two things I do look for are 1; teams that can cover and 2. teams going over their expectation. Miami projects as someone who could cover 14 points. Of course it is 14 because of the backup QB so that makes sense. Baltimore also has the ability to cover but again, its a backup QB situation. Both games would go over the vegas total if that were to happen. The last game here is one without backup QBs, but is spot on with the 3 point spread and it projects to go well under the total. This makes me want to consider the possibility that the game could come with some risk.
The game with the most ownership happens to be the NYG/MIN game. It has shot out before so its difficult to avoid, but the other two games do have potential that may be going underowned due to their backups in the game.
Defense vs Receivers
Tyreek is in position to do well and that makes him a bit extra interesting. Maybe Buffalo tries something to take him away today, but if they fail, a long TD is his specialty at no ownership. Baltimore- I do not know their true pecking order, but if you can identify WR2, it is a big weakness in the defense, along with WR3. Double TE may be in play as well if you want to pay up for those WRs on this slate. Richie James as WR1 could also be in play.
Projections
On the left we have fanduel projections and on the right, we have draftkings projections. I may begin my builds from these pages and see what fits.
Summary
Maybe today isnt quite about who you play because many good players are in good spots. However it may come down to who you fade. Would you be willing to fade the one name I didnt mention today? Justin Jefferson? He's coming in hot today, and can certainly take the top off a GPP. But what if he doesn't do it today? Good luck!
Showdown Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinatti Bengals
Expectations vs Salary
Chase is sitting up top with Burrow so its going to be tough to get away from them two. Maybe Baltimore tries to take him out of the game, but usage wise hes up there. It seems like a Bengals stack is both value and best odds of success. Mixon is up there too even though he has sucked lately. To pay for them, a cheap play may exist with Irwin, Kolar and Wilcox (choose 1 and you will have a low owned dart).
When stacking the Ravens
Huntley is questionable and no one really projects well on the baltimore side. However the kicker, defense and QB seem to all have some form of leverage if you want it.
When stacking the Bengals
It would seem that putting Burrow and Chase in the flex is ideal, while choosing between the kicker, Higgins or Boyd for captain. Mixon usage is showing as pretty high as well if you want to try that.
Showdown NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson will be popular, Cousins will be popular, Jones and Barkley will be popular. Good reasons there but how do you play this slate and get unique? Maybe we look at the other side where Jalen Nailor and Gary Brightwell negate all that ownership? Need to see if they start and get work.
When Stacking the Vikings
Right now it seems that Kirk captain lineups can make sense. TJ Hockenson could also make sense for a captain play, and the kicker is definitely in play as well with the lineup.
When stacking the Giants
Daniel Jones is also a top captain, slightly even stronger than Kirk, which means that a QB captain is likely in play.
*************************************Saturday Stuff***************************************
Ceiling Finder
When peeking at Saturday's slate, I see Keenan Allen with the highest expectation on the slate based on the last 5 weeks of work. Normally would say that is McCaffrey, but I'm not sure how much either played in week 18. That is the thing we may have to fill in the blank for, in addition to what Josh Palmer might do (thanks /u/Key-Tart-5710!) as his opportunity opens up today. Ekeler and Herbert are also up high which leads towards a team stack on the LAC side of things. On the pivot side, it would seem that taking a shot with Geno Smith might provide a sense of leverage at a similar ceiling. Lets see how positions break down:
QB
As we look at salary vs expectatations for quarterbacks, it becomes clear that Herbert was priced above the schedule for QBs and therefore comes with premium. That makes Geno more likely to land in my main lineup (GPP minded). I think everyone knows the risk of playing Geno, but this is just how I roll, when the usage is high and the ownership is low. Decent and similar expectations as Herbert surprisingly, against a defense that most teams are likely to play despite being burned a bit in recent weeks. Some of the QB idea will also rely on the WRs that can pair here, but it is an intruiging thought for milli maker type contests.
RB
Kenneth Walker is also way above the field in value here so maybe that pairing makes sense. DeeJay Dallas is nothing but a dart but also maybe worth a tiny bit of exposure if you think Walker gets hurt or that he gets a sneak td. Most are going to play CMC and/or Ekeler. I dont hate the idea at all, but you have to get the cheap WRs right if you do that. My lean is currently Walker and CMC but will keep tinkering.
I could see McCaffrey being a play you have to make as we have seen most seasons. Both he and Ekeler could make sense as workhorse backs if you think WRs struggle.
WR
I find it difficult to get away from a Keenan Allen play due to his workload. Mike Williams appears to be ruled out too so we get some isolated work for him and Ekeler. Metcalf and the Joneses are otherwise top value here. Kirk went off last week and so what this tells me is, to at least have 1 Jaguar WR in my lineups for Saturday, if not two. If i'm getting to two, I'm most likely playing Lawrence as well. Someone else going a lil under in ownership is DK Metcalf. Tough matchup there but it carves well when trying to get away from the chalkier cheap WRs in Jacksonville.
TE
Kittle is showing as half the ownership as Engram, and Parkinson, who has turned up 3 good performances in a row, is showing single digit TE ownership. Those are the only two I am likely to play, although Engram is in a good spot. Half the field with a TE is an automatic fade for me though.
Vegas Totals
I'm going to trust the Vegas totals as much as possible this weekend. I dont see anything entirely off for upset potential. Some teams have potential to cover but being realistic, Buffalo and Cinci are essentially getting a first round bye based on their opposing QBs. SF winning by 10 is totally possible, yet it is a close division matchup and Seattle covering 10 points does feel like the best bet to me. That would also push the game over its o/u if that happens.
Most people are going to play that first game, so the more Seattle/SF you get to, the more chances to be contrarian, specifically on the Seattle side from what we are seeing. I hear the weather sucks so theres that too.
Defense vs Receivers
Saturday only
Laquon Treadwell is the dart of darts today. No one will play him and he might give you 0. But he also might get a long td for the first time this year like many other WR3s have done. You decide if you want that smoke when playing CMC and Ekeler.
Here we can find the players who could potentially fall in line for a weakness in the defense. Granted some names may not match the position (Mike Evans as WR2 for example), but you can interchange those in your own lineup (assuming that is Chris Godwin for Tampa actually)
Projections
Saturday Only
Weekend
As of this writing, my page is set up for all games on the slate, and therefore leverage is only shown for players on Saturday. I may update this view before kickoff tomorrow for more insight. Projections for Fanduel are on the left while Draftkings is on the right side to how I rank these guys.
Summary
Here is a summary of the situations that are projecting this week. Daniel Jones is the only actual QB in a smash spot from the looks of things. Everyone else will have to get there with usage + success in touchdowns. Therefore I'm likely more interested in paying up for RBs than usual. Good luck!
Showdown Seattle vs SF
Just throwing up some insights from the single game here in case you are playing it. Deejay and Colby are the darts of interest to me. Seattle has the value side of things with low odds of success, but it is worth a shot to me.
Projections
One thing that typically happens on showdowns is that CMC destroys the slate and somehow goes from being ideal at flex to just straight up necessary for captain. Ive seen it happen often but I'm going to stick to my guns I think, because Walker usage is also extremely high over the last 5 weeks. Lets see the ideal stacks and captain plays:
When stacking SEA
Tyler Lockett becomes extremely interesting, to the point where I may rework my main lineup from Metcalf to him
When stacking SF
Things are much more defined. Infact this would be intruiging if you found a way to fade CMC (high risk), Brock, Kittle, Aiyuck and Gould would be a good stack to play, with Purdy at captain. Good luck!
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