I wanted to continue this path of research and analysis while we have a chance, preseason. This post is a continuation of the last article where I generated the top 100 optimal lineups for the 2023 season each week and began analyzing the top potential plays. Since we are approaching week 1, the week in which everyone takes a wild shot based on what they have seen in the previous season/pre-season, lets go ahead and analyze this one together.
2023 Week 1 Milli Maker Winner
A wise person once told me that you should always start with the goal in mind, thus why this is our first graphic. Shout out to Ryanella who was able to bink on his 2nd of X entries. What did he do? Miami QB-> WR1 -> Opp RB stack is the first thing I see. 4 WRs is the 2nd thing I notice, where the WRs are most likely expected to get the primary work on their team. 233.24 points, which is a whopping 25 pts per person. Then finally a cheap TE and DST. Without recalling all the lines of who was favored or not, thats the gist of it. First Takeaway here is -> stack and don't be afraid to grab more than 2 players in the game that you think can go off. I'd also suggest ensuring that every play you make have a pathway to 20 points, or your lineup just might suck.
2023 Week 1 Optimal
When comparing that lineup to the optimal, we get the same stack, a different WR with volume expectations, Aiyuk is still there, a better defense, and a 3000 Puka Nacua .... I assume this may have been a week where Kupp was out because Tutu also did well vs Seattle. Cardinals DST was likely predictable due to the weak offensive line of Washington, with a rookie QB. I typically hate taking a chalky DST, but that did work out for the winner. Id suggest surprises here would be the number of road players who did well, as all but 2 in this optimal played on the road.
What we (DFSed) knew prior to week 1
Review the link here to see what a typical writeup looks like from me. I write these on the fly so many times you get my raw thoughts and analysis. Typically I look for pivots and upside, where Ekeler was someone of interest, and Burrow -> Chase had the ability to stack at the same ownership of Tyreek. That did not work out for me in week 1, as Chase put up 9 pts, Burrow put up 3 ;( Hurts didnt do squat either. Nonetheless, if you keep reading through the post, you will see the indicators (such as vegas totals,) that led to some of the best plays in week 1. As seen in the screenshot, Arizona was my number one pick for DST, which just happened to go completely against the chalk. Love to see it.
Optimal vs Others
I am taking a peek at the guys who showed up in crunches on the main slate here on the left vs plays on the right. First focusing on the optimal guys, Aiyuk and Tyreek were simply must plays. Tua was most likely a guy you could stack with Tyreek for value at QB. Meyers and Mac Jones actually would have stacked well too surprisingly. Other things I notice in this list: The team implied totals were mostly in the 20s and above. Some teams had less (Arizona, Houston, Tennessee, and Carolina). None of those teams had an optimal skill player so that will be insight # 2. There were teams with higher totals (Chargers and Baltimore), were Ekeler was a good play but thats about it.
Position Breakdown
QB
Only 2 optimal QBs, but there were 7 total QBs over 20 points in week 1 last year. The only 2 that made it to 25 points were optimal. Herbert was the chalk around 12% projected, while Tua was similarly priced and put up 14 more points. Wish I had seen that as a pivot!
RB
RB actually had more options than QB last year in week 1. 6 different ways to reach the optimal at RB at this position. They all reached 20 or more points, while everyone under 20 did not make it. As we know, all but Algeier were workhorse backs, and guys who projected a solid workload. I'll make that insight # 3. Ekeler was the projected chalk, which brings me to insight # 4, the one position where I believe chalk to be consistently OK is at RB, especially in week 1. Workload is too tough to come by to get lucky at that position, which everyone knows and gravitates towards, especially with teams considered as home favorites.
WR
This position tends to have high variance, although the top plays are also the ones we expect to get the most targets most weeks. Justin Jefferson played week 1, scored 27 points but did not show as optimal for me. A combination of price and being 4th overall in WR performances that week kept him on the outside. Aside from Puka, I am not seeing any rookies really on these lists so that is something I will carry forward as insight # 5. Rookies are not likely going to make my primary build.
TE
Not sure why my TE list is so short offhand, but my feeling on it remains the same. TE sucks. It is likely the last spot I will enter in my lineup unless there is a drastic shift in ownership to random TEs.
Thats all for today, but hopefully that has helped. If you have thoughts on other views to add or look at for this writeup, hit me up on twitter!
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