This will be the final page of the series now that time is running out. I want to get to 2024 data so that will come next. For now, lets see what we got.
Mr Consistency
I got the idea for this chart from my friend DFSai - to analyze which players were the most consistent (right to left), and compare them to the player's with the highest projected ceilings (up top). In other words, the upper left quadrant will provide you with the players who showed a more consistent upside, while the bottom right quadrent is likely the guys who were avoidable for the most part, since they were lower consistency and lower ceiling. I will break these out by position for readability.
QBs
The highest ceiling in 2024 projected went to Hurts, thanks to the rushing upside. Unfortunately that doesnt align with actual score, as CJ Stroud put up the best ceiling at the QB position (44.8). The guys that are less consistent up with Hurts make for the best GPP plays because their ownership will fluctuate but if you land on them the right time when ownership is low + score is high, you might just find yourself in the winner's circle. I'll circle back on that comment soon.
Most of the dead zone here are guys who I doubt are in the league anymore (Taylor, Dobbs, Sieman).
RBs
Running backs were interesting thanks to Miami. There was a game in which Mostert and Achane put up like 4 TDs each. Achane had the highest projected ceiling for this reason, although he is upper right quadrant because of the games in which he put up 1, 4, 12 points as well. Boom or bust is his middle name. CMC is the next highest projected ceiling but note that he is closer to the center, which means he was more consistent in his results than Achane. Gibbs is on the upper left side, meaning more consistent with some upside so he will be a favorite of mines this year. Jonathan Taylor was in the dead zone, with Aaron Jones surprisingly.
WRs
Tyreek Hill, projected top ceiling on the year. Nico was actually quite consistent in his results as far as a WR is concerned. With Diggs and Tank back, it is difficult to see if that continues. Devontae Smith is surprisingly in the lower tier of WR consistency and upside so perhaps someone I will play much less.
TEs
Kelce and Kittle both had the most upside, granted none of the top TEs were really consistent. 7th on the list was Engram who seemed to show the most consistency for his upside. Lets see if he can keep that up this year for cheap.
Team Stacks
I cant show every stack of the year so I sorted by the team stacks that had one of the higher scorers of the week to start and showcasing what stacks might have worked throughout the year. First thing I will call out is that week 1 did not have any stack sizes larger than 2 names last year. A stack for me, is defined as 20+ points for all players in the stack. I will focus on stacks of 3 or more here, but am showing week 1 results anyways.
Week 1
Last year, Atl could have had both RBs in a lineup and been OK, granted Bijan wasnt in the optimals. Other notables would be games where both sides had 2 players: Jacksonvill vs Indy, where a QB-> WR could be ran back with a RB+WR from the opponent. Chargers and Miami were also stackable with each QB, but best with Tua -> Hill -> ran back with Ekeler. Another callout that is noteworthy is New Orleans having 2 WRs go over 20 with 0 QB. Why? High chance it was because of this ole Tim Tebow offense they like to stick with -> aka Taysom and Carr sharing fantasy points. So annoying.
Week 2
First thing I'm looking at is what teams were stackable and I see the Bills, Denver, Houston, Minn, Phil and Tampa when looking for stack sizes of 3 or more per team. A game stack with Philly vs Minn is likely what you needed that week. QB + RB + WR happened 3 times this week, QB + WR + WR happened twice, and QB+WR+TE showed up once.
Week 3
Buffalo (2nd time), Miami, and SF are here, with QB + RB + WR only appearing once, and then the odd stack of QB + RB + RB which likely happens once a year and no one plays it. Finally QB + WR + DST which is also a rare stack type.
Week 4
Chi, Rams, and SF (2nd time) pulled up, and again we see QB + RB + WR appear 2 more times, and a QB + WR + TE stack again.
Week 5
Another game stack opportunity if salary pans out here with Buffalo (3rd time) vs Jax with Qb + wr _ wr vs opp RB being ideal. QB + RB + WR surfaced here twice, with QB + TE + WR showing up again. Its probably wise to count these situations out at the end of this review.
Week 6
Only a QB + RB + WR was available this week for Miami (3rd time), when counting stacks of size 3. Its also worth noting that while Carolina was horrible last year, this is the first time allowing a 3 man stack this season.
Week 7
This week we get 2 new teams to the 3 man stack space, with the familiar QB + RB + WR and the new QB + RB + TE stack.
Week 8
At the midpoint of the year, Cin finally shows up and appears to be game stack ready with SF, using QB + RB + WR vs QB + RB + TE for the 2nd time. This week we also get to our first 4 man stack with New Orleans -> QB + RB + WR + TE. Miami (4th time) brings their first QB + WR + WR of the year, which matches Phi's stack. The Miami stack starts looking less and less likely to be optimal at this point of the year since they haven gone off so many times by now.
I doubt I look at every week but if you request any given week I can post it.
Why stacks matter?
This is a lineup from a friend of mines, who entered a fanduel contest mid year last year. He texted me out of the blue to tell me how he won the milli maker contest that week. After looking at the lineup, I realized how good it really was. QB -> WR -> WR -> TE -> Opp RB. All the stars aligned that day but he put himself in position for it by assuming that game might score a lot of points. Being able to capture the points from a single game is so much easier than trying to get a lot of points from a lot of games, especially when all those games don't score 30+ real points. He also had a secondary stack of WR -> dst. Neithe of these stack types are common but yet he got there and won a quarter of a million dollars in taking the risk.
Giving credit where credit is due:
I created DFSed created DFSai, the persona responsible for coming up with these insights.
Thats all for now! Time permitting + when all my data points for week 1 are available, I'll start up Week 1 2024!
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