Lets get right into the 3 gamer this afternoon.
Potential vs Salary
Ja'Marr Chase vs Denver being the top of this chart is expected, but problematic today and you will see why when we get to our defensive options. Chase and Joe Burrow is right behind him in potential, due to the Bengals consolidating their offense being so busy lately. They need to beat Denver and have Denver lose next week for a shot at the playoffs.. Next closest is Kyler Murray and that is an interesting person on today's slate too, as being in one of the dryest games on the weekend. He let me down last week and perhaps will do that again today, but lets just wait and see how the sims lay this out exactly.
Vegas Projections
The best game I project on the slate could be the dry one as mentioned -> rams vs cardinals. I have both teams projecting to exceed their implied vegas totals meaning the over is possible. Then I also have Denver projecting to beat the Bengals due to their defense. That means Cincinnati is a risk play in my head, while Denver is intruiging in how we get to them.
Game Script
The two best passing situations I show are for the Rams and Arizona today. Chargers I have a bit more neutral, but facing the worst of the pass defenses on the board. Cinci faces the best pass defense, yet expected to throw a ton regardless, so that can go one of two ways today. All but Cinci have decent rush situations to face today
Defense vs Receivers
If playing anyone from Cincinatti, both Chases are going to be in the best positions based on the defense, which aligns well with their usage. Rams and Arizona stack pieces are a bit more difficult to target at WR3 but they are great for GPP if figuring out who those players are (i.e. Demarcus Robinson usually sits in one of those spots). The Chargers also have some space to operate for their primary WRs.
Redzone Targets
These are the top candidates for work in the redzone on each team.
Projections
Projections have been great lately and so I will rely on them to help navigate the best lineups in the sim section. I will talk about defense though. Today I have two plays that are deemed to be candidates for top defense; Broncos and Chargers. They project very close together so while Broncos project to be the top, the Chargers cannot be ignored. I cant help but notice that the Patriots QB is not projected to be a top play today either, so it would seem to be Chargers as the safest play, yet if the Broncos dominate the Bengals, it will be the lowest of ownership.
Summary
Lets reference this in our breakdown of the positions to find the right lineup for the optimal.
Optimal Lineup
Looking more at the anatomy of the optimal than the actual players right now, I am seeing favortism going to the Cardinals and to Cincinatti, while the opposing defense is pulled into the mix, as well as a sprinkle of Rams too. Likely to focus on getting plays from those teams primarily as we build out our top plays.
Sims
We are no longer experimenting with this - it is now part of my process. These are the players who hit the optimizer the most, with the most variance coming from the WR position as usual. Still too large of a pool for a lineup so lets look a bit closer at our salary targets.
QB
Murray seems to align best in the QB space with regards to price, projection and situation. He also has a ceiling that should be able to reach 28 pts if the Cardinals dont suck. That is asking a lot, but also noting that Conner is not full strength either way, so I think he can get there in rushing.
RB
Chase Brown seems like a priority today. The caveat is that Denver defense could make that difficult to work out. The Denver RBs are seemingly cheap but similar workload, with Javonte Williams slightly showing more upside and McLaughin having a little more value. Split workloads are difficult to deal with.
WR
Chase is top of this page and top projected as well. Then there is a steep fall off to value, where Harrison, Palmer, JOhnston and Boute all look intruiging for different reasons mentioned in the WR vs CB section.
TE
This looks like a pay down spot in the 3100 range. Stone Smartt, Hooper, Geisicki and then some darts are sitting down there. Gesicki sims the best at 3100.
Bengals vs Broncos Showdown Expectations
The Bengals have 4 of the top 5 spots on this chart, meaning they have the most potential for points as a unit over the past 3 weeks. Chase has been atop of this view for a while, and is lowkey playing for his contract value right now so I see no reason to avoid him in a lineup. What is interesting per the writeup above, is that the Broncos defense also projects well for me too, against the grain. It is such a long shot type of thing to do, but playing the defense vs multiple players is in play for me in this showdown. There are 2 value name in the dart zone - Krull and Burton. Neither project well but thats why they are cheap darts.
Optimal
Youve seen me tweet about my showdown optimals lately because they have been really getting closer than I have in showdown. Therefore I m starting with it for a core and then finding 2.5 plays to get different this time. (.5 = captain swap with someone in the lineup).
Bengals leverage
You will gain more leverage by playing Burrow at captain in the Bengals stack. I will say that only 3 players have points left on the table so it is difficult to see a 4-2 bengals stack working out, but I'll trust the volume to get them there despite the Bengals going against my top projected DST. Cade York and Mike Gesicki both project well to for flex leverage.
Broncos leverage
Sutton stack with Broncos defense and maybe a RB as well but which one - tough to say. I'll try Mclaughlin.