I believe we have some options for showdown and 2 game slates and I'll see what I can see in the next 2 hours before the game kicks off!
Salary vs Potential Points (Hou vs KC)
Alright so we have pretty much 6 Chiefs above the line in the value zone with Mahomes being the top of the chart. I believe Nico Colins is the most pricey of the list and that makes Mahomes very much in play for me, whether its a flex or captain. Mixon right behind him in usage. Noah Grah is floating out there as big value for the price. On the cheap dart space, I'm seeing 3 Texans down there and Watson, with Robert Woods atop of those guys. Normally I target darts when I am playing the QB as captain.
My Vegas Totals
I have the Chiefs exceeding their expectations. It is freezing cold in KC which is to their advantage anyways as Houston comes from the warmer climate, likely underdressed. This game could go over its implied total although I have Houston right below their side, which has me favoring the Chiefs based on this Vegas line.
Looking at the Baltimore side, I have Baltimore also exceeding their total, while Pittsburg appears to be the least attractive team to target in the spreads.
Defense vs Receivers
Nico and Schultz look like the main targets for Houston Offense. Surprised to see Houston defense ranks number 1, which is interesting as Xavier Worthy is the best bet. I will also mention that this is DeAndre Hopkins old team. Will that get him more looks?
On the Baltimore Pitt side, Tylan Wallace may not be the WR2, but in terms of targets over the past 5 games he is and that could make for an interesting stack. He projects very low and will likely be low owned, but I assume that Lamar captain lineup is going to be the best bet so stacking him with a low owned dart may be intriguing today.
Game Flow
Houston ranks 1st in both run and pass. I'm kinda shocked there. Houston offense is below average in run and pass, sooo this doesnt help make decisions to me but I suspect Chiefs to pass the ball a bit anyways. Maybe the Chiefs try harder to establish the run game while taking deep shots down field in between drives. Baltimore gets a pass funnel so yes, Lamar + 1 is going in for me on the 2 gamer. Not sure a double stack is needed.
Redzone Targets
Neither QB necessarily looks to be in a great spot to me. However this the list of guys in line for touchdowns if they get to the redzone. The Texans look consolidated to Dell, Colins and Schultz if not going to Mixon. Lets see if any pair up with the defense.
Leverage on Houston Players/Stacks
Updated: A bit more leverage at captain is now showing for Stroud as an option, which makes things interesting if going Stroud + a dart zone play. Mixon and Stroud otherwise have negative leverage in the flex so either you play them with overcompensating leverage via darts or you may want to pass on at least one of them if in the flex spot.
I see 6 Houston players with points left on the table which is quite a bit. Nico at captain is a leverage play, and pretty much the only one for Houston. He is the top owned captain so I am not all that intruiged to go there if playing just one entry. Instead I will see what the Chiefs offer, but as far as flex leverage, Schultz is the top flex option and I may lock him into that spot. The dart zone is all leverage but not as good of a feeling. The kicker is also in play for flex leverage.
Leverage on Kansas City Chiefs Players/Stacks
So lets say you decide to pass on Nico with me (who i think is a top 3 WR in the league this year personally). Mahomes is right at the mark of leverage at captain while Kelce and Pacheco are both showing as the top leverage options on this side, both projecting single digit captain ownership. Xavier Worthy is showing quite a bit of flex leverage today so him + Mahomes are lock plays for me. Butker and Chiefs defense could also be in play. If playing Mahomes captain, I'd likely try to sneak in a dart play or Noah Gray but none project well. There are tons of Chiefs on the points left on the table so I am leaning 4-2 Chiefs stack builds .
Showdown Optimal
These players show up in this optimal and it has negative ROI showing so dont play it. However we can see the plays that project the best. Maybe needs a tweak here or there to get there as I doubt the Chiefs defense makes any sense at captain.
2 game Slate Projections
I see some cool things like Schultz as the lock for me at the TE, and a desire to get to Bateman or Flower, but just maybe I take the long shot dart instead while keeping Nico / Worthy in play with their projections. Not excited to get to Henry that much but I may play Justice Hill potentially if we think that they want to rest Henry and get Hills contract bonuses.
2 gamer optimal
The defenses all look like tough sledding today. But knowing that Nico is the top owned play, I feel like the Chiefs defense could step up in the cold for value. Otherwise Ravens pay up is lesser owned and I may just take that with the projections.
Salary vs Potential Points (Bal vs Pit updated)
Lots of work is falling towards Lamar as expected, but being the top owned and top priced has some issues. For example, getting to Henry is very tough to play at his price point. However there are value plays all along the trend line thanks to Henry, Bateman and Warren being overpriced for their workload too. Rasheen Ali looks like a dart I've never heard of, running back for Baltimore. Not sure if hes needed unless 1. playing Lamar captain and 2 Ali is a pass catching back preferably in the redzone.
Leverage spots for Baltimore
Updated to reflect the last ownership numbers. Lamar could be flex or captain but at his ownership, I'd love to go with actual captain leverage such as Flowers or Bateman instead. The problem is none project as someone who would be in a smash spot, so we may have to eat Lamar ownership in one way or another.
As of now, Lamar shows flex leverage and captain leverage, meaning he may be best used in the flex. Flowers and Bateman would be better leverage in captain than flex if playing them. Tucker and Justice Hill look like they could be flex plays if getting to 4 Ravens. I only see 3 Ravens with points left on the table so that might be tough, yet their team total is high enough to maybe it works out.
Leverage spots for Pitt
None of these plays project well but Freiermuth and Austin are capable of getting you some leverage in flex. Jaylen Warren may go in my lineup in the flex maybe. One thing to consider is that Van Jefferson doesnt really have a projection from me. Mike Williams - could also be the WR1. I guess I'm not sold that
Surprisingly there are only 3 players with points left on the table, which opens up the potential for 3-3 stacks, but still may lean 4-2 Ravens. Captain leverage here is on Warren. Friermuth and Austin look best for flex, as well as with the kicker.
Optimal
We see a lineup with negative leverage by default here, and what seems to be a 5-1 stack, so getting to 2 or 3 Steelers may be welcome here for a positive ROI on your lineup.
Good luck!
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