I am consolidating down to the two games today, with primary focus going towards the showdown slates. Because some visuals don't need to change, I'm starting with the overarching 2 gamer with the milli maker attached.
Updated 1:20 PM CST
Ceilings vs Salaries
What I want to look for is the highest data points on the map, especially above the trend line. Josh Allen followed by Jamar Chase are the two primary pieces. Both expecting over 40%. The sentiment is that Burrow may not have time to throw today with the missing oline, as we saw how the season began for them. Dak is still showing as the lowest ownership on the slate, meaning 49ers defense is going to also be highly owned. Of the top 4 plays on the slate, I have to say he will be my starting point (and is my QB for the 4 game milli maker that started yesterday). Allen will be my 2nd lineup build just because raw points are something we always need to go up, and he can provide the most on the slate at high ownership.
QB
Dallas does not project well vs the 49ers, however if we want to build for the unexpected, there are worst things we can do than play Dak. The 49ers have given up points over the past few weeks. Dak has a path to 20 point potential in the 6k range and that value may get you an extra pay up option later. If he fails to keep it close to what Allen and Burrow score, then we have a problem, but I don't see them getting entirely blanked out.. and he seems like the type that will score a td even when the team has no chance of winning. Ideally rushing tds but lets see. If Burrow were lesser owned, I'd be making similar arguments for him instead. Brock is a wildcard play because he is similar ownership to Dak, but 1000 discount, leaving some value there, although his points do not currently align with his production. That is, he is scoring more fantasy points than his usage dictates, and therefore is more aligned with bust potential at some point than everyone else. May not happen today but I'm not prepared to find out when that day hits.
RB
Another case where we have to decide whether or not to take the raw points and sacrafice value to avoid the sand burial of the chalk, or fade and hope some of the lesser owned RBs do something. That would mean some combination of Pollard, Elliot and/or Mitchell would have to pan out while CMC busts to get there. I am not seeing it personally so I may eat the chalk unless the lineup construction of WRs changes my mind. As of now, my rushing team priorities are SF, Buffalo, Cincinatti, and then Dallas, so I wont fade CMC. Eli Mitchell is a candidate though for me at the price and expected points. He is a direct pivot to Singletary lineups.
WR
From what we will see below in the chart, Chase is actually in a good spot. It is difficult to see how the defense adjusts for him, but I am likely prioritizing Chase today. There are no true pivots showing to him at this time. On the run back, Gallup and Brown are interesting when it comes to an Aiyuck vs Samuel decision. Gabe Davis is one of the higher ownership expectations but he is also in a good spot.
TE
Kittle is the kinda guy who catches the ball and then falls in the endzone often. Therefore his expected points are lower than his actual points just like Brock. However hes half the ownership of Schultz who has the higher expectations on the slate for the price. Schultz faces an average defense vs TEs but at 51% ownership... thats a tall order to play him expecting success. Maybe a reason to take a dart off the board, like one of Schultz's backups? Dunno - I hate TE more than any other position on the board.
Defense vs Position
Only 4 games, but Chase is facing a weak spot as a primary option. Teams definitely adjust in the playoffs, but I dont like the pivots. Brandon Aiyuck has a sharp funnel to him if he is the true WR2 today. Deebo is facing average coverage in his spot as an above average player so hes viable. Cinci's weakness is with the WR2 by a lot (Davis), although WR3 is also open to ruin this chalk potentially. You could potentially get to Allen + Davis + McKenzie/Beasley to offset the chalk though. WR3 is the hole in SF and has been all year. The issue is, we dont know if that is truly Gallup, Noah Brown or TY Hilton. Dallas workloads over the past 5 weeks hint at it probably being Noah Brown as the guy you want, yet TY Hilton has played only 3 games in that span:
Vegas
The over / under says that the Buffalo game could go over its total by 1 and that Cinci has a chance to cover. Dallas appears to be expecting to be blown out which shows SF covering the spread. Thats unfortunate for me playing Dak. Just maybe I add a Brock stack to offset my worries.
Slate Projections
If I'm not playing Allen, I'm playing Bengals defense and hoping for turnovers today. He has done that a lot and a pick 6 is value in that case. The showdown content is coming up next (below this point).
*************Cincinatti vs Buffalo***************
In looking at how we may approach this game for Showdown GPP, a lot of signs are pointing at stacking the Bengals today. They are underdogs, who seem to have more value options in their space, and more potential for points based on expected points. As a team they are going less owned than the Bills so this value is a strong case for playing 4 Bengals today. Note: I always play 4-2 stacks, and so I always look for a lean. Trenton Irwin looks like the strongest of dart plays in the flex, while Beasley and Wilcox are also very much viable as well if you want a low owned dart for a jam em in approach. Irwin is like WR4 so it is very thin.
When Stacking the Bengals:
I see Higgins is now starting to pop as a Captain only play, due to the leverage you can get from playing him there. It may require Burrow to have time to throw to him so consider that. It also may take away from Chase as being a good play in the Flex even in that case. Mixon usage is interesting for last 5 weeks workload, although I'm not seeing leverage in going there, especially in a Burrow captain lineup. He gets usage but if that Oline is bad, so is Mixon despite the touches.
When Stacking the Bills:
Allen appears to make more sense in the flex due to his price. I havent said Diggs name all weekend, but he may also make a slightly better play at captain, although I'm not going there. Davis or McKenzie is where the leverage at captain begins for now and they are in a good spot so I wont rule that out in either construction. Infact McKenzie allows for quite a few different builds if you want to go cheap captain to get a flatter lineup of high potential plays in your build.
****************Dallas vs San Francisco******************
Taking a quick peek here, it seems that Dallas value is higher but expectations for points are all favoring SF. RBs may be going underowned a little bit so keep that in mind. I see Eli Mitchell as the most viable for cheap, while Dak may have the most upside.
When Stacking Dallas:
Dak/Lamb/Pollard/Schultz is interesting with a discount. Pollard can also be swapped to Elliot for a little more leverage, if stacking 4. None of these guys look great for Captain but Dak captain makes sense if you chose one.
When Stacking San Fran
Brock makes the most sense at captain on the San Fran side of the ball. CMC and Deebo show as leverage, with a double down possible with Aiyuck. I'm not too keen on kickers today, especially after Maher's showing last week, but if going 5 49ers maybe the K has to be one.
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