My process has slightly shifted and you can likely see more detail about that on my twitter feed for the weekly article. The same mindset of trying to evade as much of the chalk as possible is still the plan, but with a little more focus as we build our stacks.
Salary vs Expectations
What we see here is that Garret Wilson has had a great workload to date, with regards to expected points. The highest in the game, even moreso than Breece Hall. That makes him quite important to the lineup tonight . Infact 3 Jets are positioned above Josh Allen which is interesting based on historically looking at the Bills. We also see some value on the left / cheap side of the spectrum. who have the ability to exceed their salary in value. Gipson would be the cheapest while Hollins would be more realistic at getting 5 or more points. Once in a while, a play under 1000 gets a touchdown which is like 10x value though.
Vegas Projections
The Vegas line looks efficient although I have the game potentially exceeding expectations. The Jets show 3 pts above their Vegas expectation. Will they get there? How do they get there? That is what we try to answer with our build.
Snap Counts
Looking at the cheap guys in relation to snaps played, and Mack Hollins is up there at over 60% for 2400. Cook and Shakir are currently listed as Questionable.
Defense vs Receivers
I am going through each chart 1 by 1, and didnt expect to see Mack in the WR3 spot but that is intriguing, granted he doesnt project for anything significant. On the other side, Breece being there is also interesting with Lazard. That is also significant.
The Jets defense does have a weakness in the middle of the field and with deep passes. Curtis Samuel is the projected slot WR for Buffalo, with Mack Hollins running about 1/4 of his routes in the slot too.
The Bills defense is also weak in the middle but more in short routes. That makes me think a TE might exploit the slot, but Allen Lazard gets half of his routes in the slot so that makes him close to a lock for me. Tyler Conklin runs half of his routes from the slot as well though too.
Game Script:
DVOA suggests that the Jets defense is not good vs the run, but is good vs the pass. The Jets should have some issue trying to run if DVOA is accurate but have a little better of a chance in the passing game. That is perfect for tonight, because my thought is that most will target Allen for passing and Breece for rushing when neither is in a great spot. Workload typically is more important than the matchup when it comes to points, but perhaps in single game, its all about finding a reason to be different, and that could be a path.
Bills Stacks
I expect this to be the more popular side of stacking because the Bills are favorites. Josh Allenusage has been down and James Cook usage is higher so I could see myself targetting Cook at captain, although more leverage will exist with a Kincaid or Shakir capt spot. Kincaid, Hollins, Curtis Samuel and Ray Davis all seem to have potential to gain points and exceed value if their situations havent changed.
Jets Stacks
Breece Hall looks to be the top projected ownership on the slate so I am less likely to play him. Tough to say if he could end up a full fade but certainly not a captain play for me. Wilson also has double digit captain ownership so I cant quite see myself going there. However theres a slight chance that Rodgers throws for any touchdowns the Jets score this week, making him more captain friendly. Lazard looks stackable in the flex. Wilson, Conklin and Breece all have potential to catch passes in the flex depending on the side you lean. If ownership stays up on Breece, Brandon Allen is also a little extra leverage in flex.
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