top of page
Writer's picturedfsedric

NFL Showdown Odds and Leverage - Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons 2024

Updated: Sep 22

Full disclosure; I'm a Chiefs fan. Therefore there may be some unintended bias and cheering in the writing of this one.


Ceilings and Value

Bijan Robinson leads the group in expectations tonight, as he faces a defense that is capable of giving up lots of rushing yards. His usage is quite high as well so we will see how that pans out. Ray Ray is once again value, while Charlie Woerner is showing as a potential leverage play for 800 bucks. He might get you 1 catch but maybe its one that matters?


Vegas Game Totals

It seems that the +3 line is in line with my projection so no real feel here except that Atlanta might under perform due to the short week (hopefully). The game makes me nervous that the Chiefs do not have a run game that we can project well. Run games are ruling the NFL this season.


Offensive vs Defensive Line Matchups

It would seem that ATL run blocking will have significant advantages while the KC pass blocking ought to have advantages too, which means we can expect game scripts to follow them advantages.


Defense vs Receivers

This game sets up well for pretty much all the stars. The TEs on both teams ought to have good chances at points. Bijan and Rice are the focal points today and they have good situations going into this as well.


When ATL has the ball:

Updated-> it seems like playing 4 falcons makes the most sense all of a sudden. Maybe Kirk/Bijan/Pitts + 1.



Bijan doesnt hold any leverage but Kirk London and Pitts do at captain. The tie break to me is the usage though where 40% usage to a RB makes Bijan captain worthy. I'd probably try Kirk or Pitts as secondary plays at captain if I built enough entries. Ownership may also change this thought train.


When KC has the ball:

Steele gives some flex leverage. Kelce is intruiging if going captain.


Mahomes is going to be the chalk of the slate which never works out. His usage is down a bit but the idea is that he will throw for all the Chiefs points, yet I doubt he will make sense as captain, on the road. I could see a path to playing 4 Chiefs in the flex but someone has to be left out. I think Steele vs Perine vs Butker is a decision point, and if the game stays close, I could imagine Butker getting some FG attempts in if the rushing doesnt work out.

61 views

Comments


bottom of page