I will not be around tonight to provide updates but you can still potentially see the lay of the land based on 5pm CST (now). Soooo here we go.
Salary vs Expectations
The key here is to find out who has gotten the most potential over the past 5 weeks. Sutton actually is him, over Nix and McConkey. I believe he is not showing as the top owned on the slate, and therefore he is my lock play tonight, whether flex or captain spot (TBD). This is just a strategy I've taken on after building enough of these sheets that says - the top guy usually is tough to keep out of the optimal. On the value side, Franklin is showing increased usage as well. Darius Davis and others in the dart zone for cheap could be OK for large field dart throws if playing.
Vegas vs My Projected Expectations
One thing we agree on is that this could be a low scoring game. However I have this game going over the projected team totals on each side, and overall by 3 points. Knowing that I am feeling like defenses and kickers will be more popular than usual, when some WRs might actually be capable of doing more than expected.
Defense vs Receivers
I see some sharp funnels to the Chargers WR1 and RB when pass catching. Then another to the WR2 for Denver. Targets suggest that could be Vele but you may have to decide without me on those names since I cant dive into them.
Game Scripts
Figured I should look, but Denver may be able to get a few extra possessions than usual today, and the ideal way to move the ball is to run it vs the Chargers. I do however see that pass pressure wont be there for Denver, making it possible to throw on them if he is accurate. The Chargers will be slightly better off passing the ball, yet Denver is top 10 defense in both areas.
Redzone Candidates
When in the redzone, I see the following guys are most likely to get targets, and in showdown with low game totals, that could be important if there arent many touchdowns tonight. quentin JOhnston is their main guy getting looks. The cheapest guy is Troy Franklin.
Denver Leverage as of 5pm
There are 5 name on the list who hae underachieved for Denver lately. Williams and the Broncos defense actually show leverage on my end at the captain spot. For leverage in the flex, Lutz and Mims both appear as viable options.
Chargers Leverage as of 5PM
I'm showing 8 names on the Chargers side as having points left on the table, which makes me more interested in a 4-2 Chargers stack tonight. Herb and McConkey show as captain leverage but Ladd has more captain ownership than anyone, which makes me want to fade. I will say that his position in the slot makes him extremely well positioned to do the best of their WRs vs Denver. Dicker is showing high odds of success as a flex option for leverage and then theres a fall off to Stone Smartt, which is odd, but thats only two names that I can project at this time.
My optimal lineup
Ladd projects the best so he pulls up with Herbert. Then Nix with 3 WRs is funny, but thats what we have showing. I do believe that we will want at least one kicker here based on the leverage.
Good luck!
Comments