Here is my weekly research towards finding the plays that make the most sense when trying to leverage the field, preferably upwards. Levers can send you both up and down the leaderboard, and I believe that if you have the ability to get last, you also have the ability of getting first, and therefore have to be willing to accept both outcomes to live in this land. Ideally we find the right core, but let's also find the 1 or 2 plays that matter for first place this week! This link will eventually contain Sunday night football as well so lock in to my twitter @DFSed or bookmark the site!
Updated: 6:43 pm CST
Sunday Night Football Analysis
I'm lookin at the workload compared to the player's salary from the past 3 weeks. Stafford has been the highest usage in the game in that span. Thats higher than Kupp and Hurts which is slightly surprising. Infact it feels like Puka gets all the attention so theres that. Then we have Demarcus Robinson right outside the dead zone with a couple of plays in the dart zone (Davis Allen, Shipley, Calcaterra and Tyler Johnson).
Note: Brittain Covey is active but there is no data for his workload early in the year to show where he should stand as a WR that might get work.
Vegas projected Scores
Vegas has Philly winning this game by about 3 points and I have it rounded up to 4, with a similar total so I think the Vegas line is good.
Game Script for Eagles vs Rams
Philadelphia is facing the weaker defense based on DVOA on both rushing and passing. The Rams seem to have a tougher matchup in passing than rushing but neither looks great for QBs. Id imagine that both teams will try to run the ball more than anything although touchdowns appear to be slightly favored in the passing game when they occur.
Snap Counts
For the price, Davis Allen is playing quite a few snaps per game. Tyler Johnson snaps have dropped the past 2 weeks, but his redzone usage did exist in the span of the year so I wont rule him out entirely. If I play 20 lineups, he will be in 1 of them just in case he gets a touchdown. Grant also looks like he has significant snaps lately so he's definitely in play.
Defense vs Receivers
We can see the defense for the rams favors the WRs down the line as opposed to primary weapons. Grant shows up as being in a good spot as well with the TE spot for Philadelphia. The Rams may find space with their primary WR again but not necessarily the 2nd WR, so whether or not that is Kupp or Puka - I always get that wrong. One insight that might help though is that the slot CB appears to be the one who grades out the best for Philadelphia, and Kupp runs most of his routes vs the slot. Therefore my lean is that Puka is the guy today with the best matchup for the Rams. As for the Rams defense, they are weakest on the outside routes, so AJ Brown seems like a no brainer.
Goal: 15 pts per roster spot tonight
When the Rams have the ball
Updated: There is captain leverage on Kyren and Stafford, and a little bit on Puka as a better captain than flex play, although I like to typically fade the highest owned captain play when I can. Karty and Robinson look like the flex plays.
Prev: Since I dont like the passing situation a ton, my lean is moreso to Kyren Williams and Puka from the Rams side. There are 8 Rams on the list right now and so stacking 4 rams is in question here. The defense projects well, in part due to Philly giving up so many sacks. Puka projects to be the top owned captain so I dont have interest in that play at captain, and could potentially pivot to Kupp in flex, but Stafford may go under owned as a captain.
When the Eagles have the ball
Updated: Barkley, AJ and Goddert are the best bets for captain leverage tonight, and I think I am leaning AJ Brown first, if I'm fading Barkley today. Otherwise its Barkley captain. I am going to hope that
Things are a bit more consolidated. I wouldnt mind AJ at captain, and lots of leverage on Barkley as captain too. Grant looks to be well in play on this side for dart plays.
Optimal Lineup from my Projections
You should never play the optimal as is, but it gives an idea of how players fall. If lucky this will only require 2 changes out plus a captain swap as that has been what happens when the projections are doing well for a showdown slate.
Thats all for now!
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Bottom Line up Front
Captain plays of interest: Najae (chalk, but high usage), Njoku (less owned, high leverage)
Flex plays of interest: Warren, Tillman, both defenses, Austin, and the Pitt TEs are where my head is.
To see why, keep reading.
TNF Draftkings Salary vs Player Workload (last 3 weeks)
I pulled the last 3 weeks of data to start the day but will likely update later with last 5 weeks as usual. Winston has had the most usage and is not quite capitalizing on his full potential of points. That means one week soon he may have another blowup game, although with tonight's weather and tough matchup on a short week, I don't necessarily feel like tonight will be 'it'. Jeudy and Pickens have also picked it up. The issue that I will call out today is that trying to rank the WR1, WR2, and WR3 for Cleveland right now is difficult and may cause issue in projections.
In the dart zone, we have Austin and Akins for cheap darts that I will look into with snaps later. Mike Williams may have taken over Austin's primary role so he may start declining potentially (or he pops out for a gadget play?)
Past 5 weeks of workload
This starts to show more value with Tillman and Elijah Moore. Without loving the passing game for Cleveland today, its difficult to recommend one, but Calvin Austin is still on the dart zone.
Vegas Odds
I find that the margins in showdown are so thin that any edge you can get is a good edge to explore. Vegas has this game being won by Pittsburg around a FG difference, and game total being around 35 points. I have Pittsburg winning by 6 pts and the total going over, as both teams project over their total. The downside to these projections is that weather is not factored into it, but if you wish to fade the weather, perhaps we look for potential FGs and 2-3 touchdowns from each side.
Snap Counts
I could have some interest in Austin potentially since he played 26 snaps last week but it will be close. Ben Skrowronek is 200 and played 20 snaps so that is also interesting, but will need to double check his targets to give that any consideration.
Game Scripts for Cleveland vs Pittsburg
We can fully expect both teams to try and run the ball, but Pittsburg should have an easier time doing that than Cleveland. Infact the passing situation looks quite bad for Winston based on his QB score, although if they do score 2 tds, 1 will likely be passing if not both. I will anticipate Pittsburg to have more rushing touchdowns than passing ones.
Fantasy Defense vs Receivers
Najae Harris looks to be game script proof, unless he gets injured. Pickens is a bit more weather and game script reliant, but he is in the best of spots for this game. On the opposite side, I am not so sure that Jeudy is the true WR3 but the 3rd option on the offense seems to be the best bet for their WRs.
WR vs CB Matchups
coming soon
How to Stack Cleveland in Draftkings Showdowns
Updated: Njoku is the clearcut captain leverage option tonight if you are playing for leverage up top. My projection is a bit less than the industry on him but I will have him as my favorite captain play.
None of the Browns are projecting for double digit captain ownership which I find interesting. If Winston is the highest usage player in the field tonight and single digit ownership, I will reconsider playing him at captain even. A name I havent mentioned today is Njoku and he has decent leverage showing at captain as well.
It seems that if playing Winston, its ideal in the captain spot, but not in the flex as much. And then none of his pass catchers really have any leverage unless you go down to Ford, RB or Atkins, who has limited upside.
How to Stack Pittsburg in Draftkings Showdowns
Updated: the leverage at captain seemingly droppped off the top plays. Najae Harris is still viable as a captain play due to his high usage in this winning game environment though. I'll be adding a section below on what we might do if fading that option.
Previous:
Najae Harris is projecting as top captain but also as a leverage play in captain as of this afternoon. This can change though as the night unfolds if we expect a ballooning of his ownership (which I kinda do with the weather). Russ and Pickens are also in good spots but are all going to be pretty much owned heavily, so tonight we need to think about the leverage and who might fail in this equation. 4 steelers still makes sense to me as many players have been leaving points on the table. I will estimate that even the cheapest player needs a path to 6 tonight, which is a touchdown or several catches if not 2 FGs in the rain.
Redzone Targets
Of the list of most likely to be targeted in the redzone peeps, Akins sticks out and therefore I may boost him tonight for the glorious cheap dart play to score (if there is one). Need to make sure hes active though and his matchup will not be great but neither will it be for any others on the Cleveland side.
DFS Value Plays
Got a long list to start the day with value potential, but also think theres two potential ways of evaluating it tonight. In a normal setting, I'd recommend rostering plays with at least 12 pt upside tonight. The weather is a big question mark though, so the range I'm accepting is between 6-12 pts which leaves Jordan Akins in my pool. A name I didnt expect is D'Onta Foreman at 200. If he plays his value could be great. Otherwise the 3rd play of interest currently is going to be David Njoku since his chances of scoring a touchdwn are great for Cleveland.
From looking at Njoku's history vs the Steelers, he has a good chance of hitting both the 6 pt and 12 pt targets based on his last 6 games vs Pit, so maybe he ends up being my favorite play.
DFS Optimal Lineup for tonight's Draftkings Showdown
Just an early look at the optimal I have right now. It will likely change, especially as I adjust some projections so check back before lock!
Updated optimal:
This is how it lays out for me, Pickens captain and double defense. I'll run it in a double up to track but will assume that you need to change 3 plays to make it happen tonight if projections are OK tonight with the weather in mind.
Leverage:
So we established that Najae is the 'best' bet at captain, which is in particularly good for cash games, but this is GPP. So we have to ask, what is the scenario that Najae fails? What is the play that Najae lineups will not use in that case?
If playing from behind, injury or all the scoring goes to the passing game, these can take away value points from Najae. The issue is Wilson and Pickens are both already highly owned too, so what are the options?
The backup (Warren) - He shows some flex leverage and most Najae lineups will not play him.
Cleveland Defense put a focus on stopping Najae? They project pretty well for teams getting pressure on the opposing QB.
Opposing RB goes off; Chubb or Ford may be interesting if the game script flips in favor of Cleveland.
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Placeholders for review of the main slate - you can skip below this point as they are moreso for me
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