Opening thoughts
As we close the doors on the 2024 NFL season, I'd like to thank you all for supporting and interacting with my work. 2025 is here and we get one more shot at taking down some money. Chalk has been hitting at a high rate down the stretch and we have the biggest chalk of them all to come. What have we learned this season and how do we apply it to take advantage? This game has several pieces that we know can score, that we know are chalk. This is the 2nd matchup of a division rivalry, so we know it wont play out exactly like game 1. How much leverage is too much? Hopefully the charts let us know where to go!
Salary vs Opportunity
I already like how this is going. St Brown being at the top of the chart feels good because he was a top projection on the slate when I pulled numbers for the day. He is not likely the chalkiest captain and yet he has the most usage over the past 3 weeks. Last year he was critical to the winning lineup in week 18 if I recall correctly as well. I am going to blindly play him in every lineup I build, although whether thats in captain or flex is uncertain. Jefferson is the next closest, which could be interesting if this becomes an air raid. Laporta is in the dead zone but high value there, Vaki is showing as a deep dive dart.
Vegas Projections
The vegas line is close but slightly over my projected line, meaning the field is expecting lots of scoring with Vegas today. The line is right in line with projections, as we expect everyone to go full force as a real playoff game tonight. I will say no edge here.
Game Script
I didn't realize that Minnesota is the number 1 pass defense in DVOA until now, while Detroit ranks 5th. Minnesota may have opportunity through Aaron Jones or whoever is rushing tonight and catching out of the backfield. From a run blocking perspective, Detroit seems to steam roll everyone so we can assume they will find space to rush as well.
Defense vs Receivers
WR1 for Detroit and RB for Minnesota are the weak spots.
Redzone Targets
Tim Patrick appears to be the cheapest guy on the field with relatively good redzone presence.
Optimal
I have a 4-2 Detroit build coming in as optimal. One thing we have learned is that the very closest the optimal has been all season is within 2.5 plays from the winner. I'd recommend figuring out how to flip this one to get there.
Detroit Leverage Spots
Updated: still quite weak on the Detroit side for captain plays if wanting leverage. Gibbs is the top owned captain so I personally will stay away from that. May just lean on Minnesota but a secondary thought that I may build a St Brown lineup at captain too.
I'm not so sure that David Montgomery is playing so disregarding him, we would have 2 players with points left on the table and lacking leverage as of 2 hours pre game. Inactives are due in another half hour. Otherwise not a ton of leverage showing for Detroit in the captain spot. Some plays like Gibbs and St Brown are better captain leverage than flex. After last week, it seems no one wants to go near Bates...
Minnesota Leverage Spots
Updated: Jefferson is the top captain leverage on the slate. A second lineup, and I'd be looking Aaron Jones as a direct leverage to Gibbs lineups at captain.
Jefferson, Addison and Aaron Jones all look viable as captain plays based on who is showing leverage in that spot specifically. However we know leverage has been tough to come by. If a cheap dart is to be played against the grain, make its Akers.
Updates may help with identifying my favorite captain so stay tuned for that!