I'll be short of time tonight so hopefully this post paints the picture required to win big!
Opening Thoughts
I believe its good to understand our biases up front in order to see where we can trust the data instead of our minds to pick. For example, I'm a Chiefs fan and I know that the offense has been out of sync, and has struggled in the redzone quite a bit. It also feels like the Chargers have been very pass heavy lately so perhaps we expect lots of passing tonight. Is that how the data lines up? Lets see.
Expectations vs Salary
Both QBs atop of the usage chart for the past 3 weeks. Mahomes usage has been quite high, but from the looks of things, he may be the chalk so even by putting him in flex, I dont know if we want to fade him entirely or put him in the flex. One thing for sure is I will not play the top owned captain in the captain spot tonight. From Xavier over to Noah Gray, we have value in the dead zone, and then Maybe Watson or Perine as deep diving darts.
Vegas Expectations
The game total I project is about 5 pts above the Vegas total. You would think its cold and rainy out here but its not. Ownership followed the QBs so maybe no edges here but I have both the Chiefs and Chargers exceeding expectations tonight in scoring. Aka bet the over.
Snaps
Not seeing any true cheap darts tonight, so balance may be important.
Redzone Targets
Will Dissly and Quentin Johnston could both be interesting for LAC. Surprised to see Worthy is getting more redzone looks than Hopkins to be honest. Their connection has yet to hit but they need to get it together soon. Until then they are legit boom or bust.
Defense vs Receivers
Good news for the Chiefs is there is a clear hole in the defense of the Chargers -> WR2. The bad news is that guessing who that is in the Chiefs offense is a nightmare. I suspect it to be Worthy but it could be Juju or Hopkins really. On the flip side, there are 2 WRs who could find success on the Chargers. Quentin Johnston and Raegor have a case for success + TE Dissly for his redzone usage. Infact it is weird seeing the Chiefs have fallen to 19th in DVOA.
When LA Chargers have the ball, how do we leverage?
I guess I have a slight lean to a 4-2 Chargers stack since they have 8 players with points left on the table. That means Herbert may be the best play for captain leverage. Davis would be an interesting dart. Quenton Palmer and Dissly are also showing flex leverage.
When KC Chiefs have the ball, how do we leverage?
The Chiefs also have lots of players with points left on the table so 3-3 is viable as well. Kelce or Pacheco will carry the most leverage at captain today. Worthy appears to be flex leverage with Hunt and the Kicker as well if going 4 deep on Chiefs.
Optimal / Default Lineup
Just using the default projections tonight but as mentioned, I am not playing Mahomes captain tonight but there seems to be some positive ROI in the event Reagor hits for this lineup.
Good luck!
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