Happy Thanksgiving and thanks for supporting this movement. I am going to try and be available for updates throughout Thanksgiving day, starting with main slate and then working into showdowns.
Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Usage vs Salary
I see 2 guys hugging the top of the usage chart -> Jacobs and Tua. I am very hopeful that this is Tua time tonight based on everything I saw on the slate. I am hesitant to suggest that I like Jacobs tonight as he just had one heck fo a workload recently. However I noticed that on my summary of situations, Green Bay is in line to rush well for touchdowns so I'm thinking through what I will do there.
A guy on his own island is Jonnu Smith, who I have been OK playing the past 2 or 3 weeks. He is still cheap. Infact, Tua was my top QB selection today based on my sims, and Jonnu was the only play I could say for sure I liked at that moment. Infact heres a sneak peek at something I've been working on from my sims:
Basically for the slate I have been trying to find ways to reach the recommended salary range for each position. As you can see here, the prophecy was for Smith and LaPorta to be the top pairing and Laporta held up his part so...
Green Bay Stacking Situations
Per the Receiver chart on main slate, Green Bay should find space with the TE and WR1. Watson is the WR1 sometimes. When looking at the WR vs CB chart, Reed looks to have a better matchup than Watson, so that is a decision point to choose one or the other. Josh Jacobs is the more popular option on this side of the fense and I'm thinking I will fade him. Emmanual Wilson may get some extra looks potentially if I'm right about that workload being capped on a short week.
Miami Stacking Situations
Based on the points left on the table, I'm thinking that we may get away with another 3-3 stack or a 4-2 Green Bay lean. However I do think Tua could make a great play on this slate, considering Achane is the highest owned captain play right now. He would be passing to Jonnu, and possibly seeing Mostert vulcher a touchdown if you want some extra leverage. Achane is still playable in all these circumstances because most wont pair him that way, but I think it may be more interesting by getting a 2nd pass catcher like Hill or OBJ tonight.
Optimal Lineup
This lineup is not playable as is, with the negative ROI, but it does seem to hit some plays that I like. I'll recommend at least 3 pivots before playing this one.
Good luck!
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NYG vs DAL Showdown Usage vs Salary Chart
This game could feature both of the top WR options if only their QBs can get them the ball. Per my previous Vegas projections, I have this game going over while the field expect this game to go under the 37 points, with emphasis on Cowboys defense and Dowdle. Lamb and Nabers both have high floors and ceilings. Cooper Rush comes in 3rd in usage on a smaller sample size than the rest. I am going to hope we get some air yards this afternoon.
Theo Johnson seems to pop as a potential value followed by Brooks, who might lose some work to Cooks on his way back, yet he is still potentially viable. The dart zone otherwise looks kinda weak today.
Stacking with Dallas Cowboys
There are 8 players for Dallas where these guys have left points on the table over the course of the past 3 weeks. Normally this is predictive of a blowup game coming, except this looks more like bad football. That can change with Rush and Lamb both atop of that view. Not sure I will touch Dowdle, but I will consider Cowboys defense today as well, potentially at captain but honestly they may not have enough upside for that.
Stacking with New York Giants
6 players from the Giants who have some potential to points. Several look like they could leverage at captain. Robinson looks good in DVOA but more and more I see that bad QBs dont really play to their best matchups. They just throw to their top WR no matter what. Therefore Lock, Tracy, and Nabers are likely the best bets, and maybe the FG kicker as well.
Optimal Lineup for Showdown
Quite the odd lineup, that I may put in for 1 dollar just to watch it. However it definitely needs some swaps.
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Game Ownership
I dont think theres a ton of insight here as exactly what you would think, most ownership on the first game and the least ownership in the middle game. However the first game may be going slightly overowned due to the safety net of points.
Top owned plays and how to leverage them?
This is a 3 game slate so high ownership numbers are expected. But how did we get to Rico as the top owned play again? What we will need to do is figure out of the top 4, what are the pivot paths in the event they fail.
Rico Dowdle: I believe this is simply a value play, but also noting the QB situation is unclear for NYG, thus Dowdle + Dallas DST stacks are sorta moving up in the world. But what if he fails? It could be because
Dallas struggles to move the ball into the endzone due to NYG defense showing up. They are my number 2 DST this week and theres nothing wrong with that pass rush that I'm aware of
Opposing RB pivot -> Tyrone Tracy is similarly priced and half the ownership of Rico, with slightly more usage in the offense over the past 3 weeks.
Dallas Passing game scores? Brandon Cooks is quietly showing up as someone on the team returning from injury, but CeeDee is showing up as the top projected for points today still.
Backup RB: Zeke?? He does like to get in the salvation army bell on Thanksgiving..
Jahmyr Gibbs: I believe he is the top play on the slate, but we still should consider where the pivots are:
Montgomery is the top redzone player for Detroit when it comes to rushing them in. If he vulchers a td, that is one less touchdown for Gibbs
I like the passing game per the showdown content and DVOA mentions
Sam Laporta seems to be someone that can also start seeing more work.
St Brown: You cant play them all and therefore I find myself not playing St Brown much today in an effort to avoid ownership on a player that is not in an optimal spot. So who is getting my pivot work?
The WR2 spot is where the points should funnel today so Jameson Williams is who I project here, although Tim Patrick could also pull up unfortunately.
Opposing WR1 - aka DJ Moore and others from Chicago all have easier paths to points based on game script and weaker CBs to cover them
Others mentioned above in both RBs and TEs from the same team who might get work here
Ceedee Lamb: I have him as my top projected play on the board, but he also faces a good CB today in the slot for Dallas. So
Brooks or Cooks could see looks, especially considering that there is a funnel to the deep ball in the Giants defense
NYG Defense could put up some stops as mentioned
See the running game above.
Top Leverage Plays for Draftkings
Odunze may be over projected by me but he, Jameson, Lamb and Reed are my top favorite WR plays today. I'm going to try and get Tracy in my lineups and hope that Jonnu and Laporta can do good things as well.
The updated optimal
I'll play it in cash I think.
Salary vs Player Expectations for Main slate (last 3 weeks)
After balancing this out for the past 3 games for each team (plus bye week included), it appears that no one has been more involved than Tua. I have to say this is going to be a risky slate when you see Tua and Josh Jacobs at the top of any list.
I have some concerns off the bat with Josh Jacobs because of his last game, 5 days back. This is a short week and I do feel like running backs tend to be less effective the week after a ton of touches. He just came off 3 touchdowns and 26 rush attempts, which is great if you played him that day, but high risk to expect that the following week. I will try and rerun this to see what the past 5 weeks looks like to see who else has the highest workload over a larger period of time, due to his outlier game.
Otherwise Tua is the top workload over the past 3 weeks of work. He has yet to prove he can do anything in the cold weather games, and quite frankly, he can get KO'ed at any moment so neither will feel good. Caleb Williams has been bad most of the last few months, but he and Jordan love come in right below that top tier. Finally we get Devito with 1 game of data to work with, but at least he made the most out of his usage in the offense.
Vegas Team and Game Total Expectations
Surprisingly I project the Dallas game to potentially be a good game, minus the Giants missing a QB and absolutely sucking in real life. That means we may want to consider what happens if the game exceeds expectations to get different. The other team games are more popular but I project them to go under the vegas total. Thats unless Detroit decides to run it up again.. While the game projects to go under the Vegas total, detroit's team total is projected to go over the implied, meaning we likely need to play some of those guys as if you didnt know that. I'm not entirely sure how I will approach Miami or Chicago at this time, but if I can find some New York players, I'm here for it. Dallas defense just gave up a ton of points and barely won last week. Just maybe this will jump start Devito's career.
Game Script Expectations
No funnels but the passing situations arent great on the slate. The environment is best for Devito, who we just saw in the fetal position a few days ago. With single digit ownership, I will likely try and put something together for him and maybe just game stack that one to see what it might produce. That game projects to have the highest pace of play since both teams suck. Detroit is ranked 2nd in rushing while facing the 30th ranked defense against the run in DVOA. Green Bay also in a smash spot for rushing unfortunately. Dallas and Giants both have the worst of the pass defenses in DVOA on this slate.
Defense vs Receivers
The names may change based on how I project the position. Looking at WR1, Dallas should be able to get Ceedee engaged since the NYG ranked dead last against WR1 right now. I also see a funnel to WR2 for Detroit, although I've seen this before and St Brown had his best game of the year that same week. Jonnu has been on a tear so he might just be someone we lock in.
WR vs CB Chart
Based on route data, I was able to estimate where some folks will be in the event they didnt have route data, so these arent exact, but I estimate that Rome Odunze could see the poorest graded CB on the slate today. None of the Detroit CBs look that good actually, so target share could matter for Chicago more than I realized, but based on what we know, Odunze will be my favorite for Chicago WRs.
In Green Bay, one guy I think we can project good matchups for is Jayden Reed, who runs majority of his routes in the slot. He sees the 3rd poorest graded WR 62% of the time, giving him the best opportunity to make plays on the slate IMO. I am unsure who these starters are on defense, but they are also all poorly graded, and with not expecting to see a lot of pass pressure on Tua, this could be interesting for Tua, although picking the 'best' situation will be tough for that reason, as none of them project as a top play individually going into the matchup.
On the tougher side of things, I see two standout cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and Andru Philips. We expect Ramsey to end up covering Watson the most, meaning Watson will be my least favorite packer today. Lamb is good but half of his routes will be covered in a tough matchup, leaving him with a smaller amount of opportunity to make plays.
Summary of Key Situations for the slate
Detroit seems to be the smash spot to not avoid this slate. It would seem that getting to a running back or two will be something to do. They will for sure be popular. Montgomery going against his old team is the lesser owned situation but there wont be a way to avoid one of them for upside.
Draftkings Projections
The Cowboys defense was the top defense last week despite giving up 30 points or so. They rank top of my sheet this week but the Giants are surprisingly right behind them. I suppose one of the two will work out this week if they get a pick 6 or return touchdown.
My Default Optimal lineup for Draftkings
Last showdown the optimal did well enough to cash. This lineup, I dont really like at all but it appears to be bringing in some decent situations worth exploring.
Sims (experimental)
It appears that RB and WR are the payup spots this week while QB is a bit more relaxed than usual at 6000 range. Lets see if we can figure out who is close enough to these numbers.
And these names seem to hit the optimal based on the value of each position, although in a payup situation we are likely looing moreso at upside (RB).
Position by Position Breakdown
QB
With a projected salary of 6000 being considered the projected best spot for a QB on this slate by my sims, it is pointing dead at Tua. One thing the sims don't do is project how a player plays in the artic cold and we all saw how he did last time in this situation, so use at your own risk. The bright side is he is a little lower owned so I will build with him in mind there first and see what comes from it. The next best thing? Jordan Love, slightly more expensive, slightly more ownership but typically the better QB at home. Then most people are going Caleb due to the price, which he is showing value. Goff is expected to be less owned as a result, but 30 real points are projected here so I will say Goff might be more interesting of a pay up play if you can find value elsewhere.
RB
We talked about Jacobs already, but Swift, Montgomery and Tracy seem to be carrying less ownership as most are paying all the way up. If aiming for 6750, Montgomery + Jacobs can get you there in average salary, but there are otherways to get close to that number. For example, Swift and Gibbs, giving you access to a lower owned candidate on the slate.
WR
It seems the past 3 weeks have higher workloads showing for Keenan and Lamb, with Odunze coming in next. I'm not sure the pecking order for Chicago as DJ Moore has had the least targets in the past 5 weeks of the 3. It is possible to play Keenan, Lamb, Odunze, and Nabers for the recommended salary range at WR, to absorb the most usage here, although not all of them are in the best spots.
TE
Jonnu + Kraft might be an interesting pairing at this position as both are in good spots and make the recommended salary range. Kraft is giong rather low owned with possibly half the ownership of Smith so he could end up being a pivot with Doubs out.
Detroit vs Chicago Showdown
St Brown has the highest of usage and opportunity in the past 3 weeks. Based on everything we have seen, it could continue to be just that. His individual matchup isnt great but yet he isn't expecting to be shadowed per the data. Some names in the dead zone here like Laporta and Odunze really stand out as I hoped, with very little room to operate in the dead zone. We all expect Detroit will put up 30+ points at home against Chicago which is too significant to ignore, between their running backs and passing game.
Stack pieces for Chicago
There is some leverage at captain for several players (where captain leverage > flex leverage). None of the cpeap guys are all that appealing to me, although there is the heaviest of leverage when playing Roshon Johnson who simply doesnt project well for me. The WRs in this game all have winnable matchups and Caleb is throwing the ball more, so a safe build would be Caleb captain with 2 pass catchers, which Keenan and Odunze provite more leverage towards. None of these guys show double digit ownership for captain, but if Chicago can keep up, a 3-3 stack is actually OK this week if you wish to get contrarian (although I typically lock in 4-2 stacks)
Stack pieces for Detroit
Gibbs is showing leverage at captain but also expecting to be one of the highest owned pieces on the slate. St Brown is picking up more ownership at captain as of now which makes Gibbs more viable as a captain play. If looking for a lower owned captain play, I think Jameson Williams could be interesting. He sets up well in DVOA and therefore projects well for me. Due to points left on the table, I have some interest in Laporta as well.
Optimal Lineup
I dont like this lineup without modification so I wont be playing it as is, but we can see that Detroit projects very well, thus the more Chicago players you get to, the more leverage you will build. I definitely dont like the Bears defense, but gotta figure out who to fade in order to make salary space for someone not showing here, which may need to be in the passing game moreso than a rusher.
This looks more like its cash viable to me:
Caleb vs Goff is likely a decision point but otherwise I'll see how they fair today in cash games.
Value Plays
Sam Laporta
Tim Patrick
Cairo Santos
Fades
St Brown - the one caveat is when I play a Goff captain lineup.
Leverage
Who do we play if St Brown fails? I typically try and build something around the narrative that if the top chalk is not a top performer, how we can leverage the showdown slate. These players have the most to benefit from this failure:
Jameson Williams - the assumed WR2 is in a great spot per DVOA and most St Brown will not play him unless double stacking with Goff.
Opposing WR1 - which is questionable as to who it is but this might be where DJ Moore steps to the plate and makes more plays than St Brown when they are playing from behind.
Running game: Gibbs would be who I would normally pivot to except with his ownership being right there with St Brown, thats not a real pivot. Instead it would have to be David Montgomery who steps in and satisfies the revenge narrative for half the ownership at captain specifically. That would pivot away from both Gibbs and Brown high ownership at captain.
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My early notes for Showdown
DJ Moore, Keenan, and Montgomery are intriguing captain options
Kmet and Laporta look like they could be high value