Opening Thoughts
So yesterday I wrote up all this content that appears to have kinda panned out towards the results. However I lost money on the slate for the 2nd time in a row. To me, that's partially bad luck in how I built lineups. I also went to the casino on a whim after the last game, since my tier credits were super close to the next tier level. While there, I turned a $1 bet into a $1000 win. That was certainly good luck. In these periods of extreme luck swings, I must think that theres is more luck in the bag, and I hope that we see some of it on display with how we use this information tonight! I plan to build my lineup today with 4-5 data plays in mind, while leaving the last roster spot up to some uncalculated play with the remaining salary I have, in hopes of accounting for the random/variance we see in real life.
Potential Workload vs Salary
Updated: Keenan, Metcalf and Odunze all seem to be pulling the least ownership.
Looking at our potential points chart, Keenan Allen is the head of household, followed by Caleb Williams. Then 3 of the next 4 plays are Seahawks. This means that Chicago might just have some pathways to being the top scorers on the slate, and I will definitely watch leverage charts on Keenan and Caleb this evening. My gut feeling is that the Seahawks are going to be the favorite team to click on tonight and so this could be an early sign towards a captain play. Odunze and then Noah Fant appear to start floating for dead zone value. Then on the dart zone, we get Darrynton Evans and others peeking above the value line.
Vegas Projections
Confirming Vegas expectations, we have Seattle -3.5 as of the last time I pulled, yet I projected Chicago to exceed the projected total, as well as Seattle to exceed theirs too, driving me towards the over (without injury or weather considerations).
Game Script
It appears that Seattle is the better run and pass offense, facing a worse defense on both sides, although the favorable matchup appears to be in the Seattle rushing game for yards and touchdowns. Chicago appears to be in the same position either way, but in a trailing scenario they are expected to pass for their points more often than run.
Defense vs Receivers
There's a sharp funnel to WR2 for Seattle, and possibly a decent funnel for WR3 in Chicago. The question is, who is WR2 for Seattle? I say DK has moved there.
WR vs CB
I imagine Odunze lines up well. His snap counts in the game may be interesting, as to whether or not he or Keenan get that work against the Left CB who doesnt grade out very well. The one guy who is sorta misleading here is Tyler Lockett. He and Metcalf both run outside routes and they seemingly switch sides often, meaning Lockett has an opportunity to do what I project Metcalf to do.
Redzone Targets
Kenneth Walker is out and that seemingly opens up a potential touchdown for AJ Barner in the redzone. Otherwise it is kinda interesting to know that Odunze is the number 1 redzone target for Chicago.
Optimal Lineup
The starting opto has DK Metcalf in the captain role. I dont think I see a path to doing this, but figured I'd show you where we begin the day. I also have DK mapped to WR2 under Njiba. The beauty of this is that we know Njiba is the slot WR so if the slot is the weak spot, we know to change the projection here. Otherwise projecting 4-2 Seattle to be the build based on the optimal. This particular lineup has heavily negative ROI so dont play it :)
Updated:
Not entirely sure why the defenses popped up but just gonna show what came out of this last update.
Leverage Spots for Chicago
Updated: Caleb Williams might be one of the top leverage plays, along with Swift. Probably want one or the other - but leverage is at captain. The leverage at captain WR has seemingly decreased a bit. DM Moore is showing double digit ownership in the captain spot so hes a no for me.
Right now, Caleb and Swift are providing the most leverage at captain. Odunze, Swift and Bears DST all have leverage in the flex. Keenan is more captain leverage than flex but we will need to sharpen up ownership projections before we can say for sure where to best play Keenan, as I usually like to lock in the highest usage play somewhere in my lineups. I am also noting that Chicago has a ton of players leaving points on the table. This may be a great opportunity to take a 4-2 Bears lineup into GPPs as well, as they have more opportunity to hit value if they play a good game.
Leverage Spots for Seattle
Updated: Njigba looks like the most leerage at captain, with Geno, Charbonnet and Metcalf all showing leverage at captain but not necessarily in the flex. Fant, Meyers and Lockett all showing up instead. If doing a 4 stack, I'd probably try and get to Lockett flex with Geno captain and maybe Fant too.
Smith, Charbonett, Njiba and Metcalf all show as positive captain leverage but not in the flex. Fant and Meyers are where the leverage begin. Keep in mind we will need some non leverage plays most likely in this equation, and perhaps thats where the random play comes in for me tonight!
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