Welp time to see how to get a little bit different on a slate like this.
Coincidentally Chubb and Hunt have the highest ceilings on this slate, followed by Cooper. Not entirely surprised there. I am projecting a lower ownership for Chubb than I probably should, but will leave it as is for the large field gpps. Going to any other Captain would just be a get lucky spot to me and I dont like those.
For Flex, it seems that value Diontae, the peoples champ, claypool, steelers defense and of course Mitch. Captains are typically quite popular on fanduel so this is going to be interesting as to how much I may have under estimated their ownership tonight. However lets be realistic, they both suck.
Lets peek the vegas lines are saying right now:
about 5 point spread with under 40 pts per vegas. I see some opportunity to go over this line off the bat. However I believe the weather may be a factor here as the wind is signficant tonight. Maybe that will drive how folks build their lineups (RBs and Defense), but will see some other pieces of data first.
Game script seems to favor Cleveland trying to run it (go figure) and Pittsburg trying to pass it. Who will impose their will? Lets look at the oline vs dline matchups:
What I see here is that we have neutral run blocking situations and neutral passing for Pitt, but a discrepency with Pittsburg defense vs the Cleveland 29th ranked pass blocking line. Maybe a moot point if Cleveland wants to just stick to the run.
Looking at how these teams defense the positions, it would seem that you could lean Chubb + Cooper or Chase + Harris this slate if leaning one team over the other.
Snap counts tend to lead to the gems. Not a ton trendy to use just yet unless you want to take a shot on DK with Jaylen Warren for dirt cheap.
The tricky spot of the day: Pittsburg TEs. It seems there are only two of them tonight, and Zach Gentry is one of them. He had 0 snaps last game. TEs tend to get them ghost TDs. Id say that is a heck of a deep dart if you got the heart for it on draftkings. Fanduel wise I will likely lean on Freiermuth to get me some points.
Speaking of Draftkings... here are the plays and projections that Ill go into the slate with as well:
If there are points to be made, the leverage points to targetting the shootout. My projections show 50 points possible when taking the weather away. Just maybe something happens here. If so, maybe Diontae/or Claypool, Trubisky, and Brisset are intruiging. I wont touch the kicker here , but maybe a Miles Boykin, a David Bell or even a Felton will see the field long enough for 5+ points in the flex and give you something truly unique. Either way,
Good luck!
And come back this weekend for more data.
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