NFL Week 1 Situations of Interest

Welp we are back, staggering into the season once again. While I'm back, one of the key tools I use (fantasycruncher) is down and has been for like 2 weeks with little to no insight on whats going on. I get my player lists from there and so that kinda kills the rest of my tools. However we are fortunate that I at least pulled the player list before going out of town (which means its outdated, but possible to create this week's writeup). Typically I use 2023 data anyways to estimate what might happen in 2024 week 1 so that's how we roll into this one. If this continues, I may need to pay for some new tools to continue into week 2.

If you are up for donating to the cause, please send what you are comfortable with to my venmo, @Sedric-Hibler. Not a requirement to use my data but it would be helpful considering the increased cost of this data for week 2 and beyond.

Ceiling Finder

Keep in mind this is based on expectations from last season and not necessarily the matchups of this year. One thing that stands out to me already is Dallas -> Ceedee and Dak seem to be high in potential and low in ownership. We will explore that matchup in the article. Tyreek is gonna be one of the chalkiest plays yet so Lamb is the intruiging pivot only if it makes sense.

Vegas Totals vs My Projected Totals

It is all based on last year's teams, pace, and staff, but somehow I have the Dallas / Cleveland game going over the Vegas 40.5 total, which makes it possible. In research though, I will disclose that Dallas has some offensive line issues expected which make that tough to feel good about. Cleveland also has a solid defense so keep that in mind. 2nd Highest game total is Miami / Jacksonville so there goes Hill if the Dallas total is off. Buffalo is projecting one of the highest totals, and we do see Josh Allen being a part of the highest ceiling plays due to his usage and facing Arizona. Finally Tampa vs Washington is intriguing so I will take a peek at that game as the charts roll out. Weather may be a factor there as well.

Listed here are the expected points vs the ownership, and Tennessee vs Chi now stands out as well. Something else I show here is the top 6 expected owned plays. It appears that most people are expecting high volume RBs. I have my own system for choosing which ones make sense and we will see who is on that list later.

Summary

Dropping this summary of situations here. I'm going to start with the running situations. Saints, Seattle and Buffalo stand out here. Buffalo expecting good run blocking advantages of that group, so either James Cook or Josh Allen ought to vulture today.

Some other notes though is in the booster; I see Pitt, New Orleans, Dallas, and Tennessee in the mix. Najae Harris and Tony Pollard now becomes interesting to me. Tenn DST might be something to look at as well. Kamara might also be someone who trends too high to fade in those running stats.

QBs

Dak Prescott and Josh Allen are gonna be the most intruiging but also considering price, 2 of the most expensive. Then we get to Geno and Minshew on the cheap side for value. Denver is one of the listed worst pass defenses last year so that is intriguing in itself.

RB

Joe Mixon had high usage with the Bengals. I am unsure how they use him in Houston but he is intriguing if we see dumpoffs his direction. Mostert and Conner look like some form of leverage for those wanting to risk it.

WR

I haven't looked deep into the Adams Raiders space this year because they are heavily defense minded. However if they throw it, its likely going to Adams at 5% ownership. Maybe something there if you can afford it, although I wont do it this week with 1 or 2 entries.

TE

Gerald Everett would be intriguing to me if it werent for his new team with Kmet. I dont know that I want to pay up for these guys either. I guess I'll sit with either Engram due to game environment and top guy here, or Juwan/Taysom crap if stacking New Orleans with Kamara.

Defense vs Receivers

Another chart based on last year's results, yet its better than going in blindly. Defense coordinators and personnel may change so keep that in mind for any target.

Projections

Welp no Dallas or Cleveland plays at QB so I'm waiving the white flag on that game in any serious entry. Saints, Houston and Indy all stand out the most in WR space. CJ Stroud may not be as chalky as expected so maybe its worth finding which way to stack him today. Also not sure if Wilson plays so just maybe Fields can get you his value.

Noting as well that Tua and Hill are neither on this chart. I looked into it and I believe Tua will face some pass pressure, thus maybe there is reason to fade him today if you want to feel good about it outside of just due to ownership

Hoping for better insights as the season progresses. Also hoping for fantasycruncher to return soon but if not I will find another way soon enough.