Been a busy week but its time to go to work! I'll come back to complete my writeups, but wanted to give everyone the charts I tend to use to get my edge. Last week was brutal because of a last minute ownership update that I didnt catch in time to post, which would have led right to Mixon. Oh well - process works if things go right this time.
Highest Ceilings
I'm looking at the top chalk option and then the top ceilings and the top leverage. A lot of roads pointing at Diggs as a top play. Vs his old team, the Vikings, he might just go off. Otherwise I'm not so sure I will get different in the other spots just yet, but onto the positionals!
QB
Theres about 5 QBs to consider this week based on this chart with Mahommes being the top dog as usual and Trevor Lawrence being the best value. I dont know how healthy Allen is, but he is playing and under the value line yet leverage on the top 3 guys. Fields blew up last week and can do it again. Tua to Hill is a thing as well.
RB
Last week is shameful that I didnt update this before lineup lock. Dalvin Cook is the clear top 4 play in usage with no ownership. We need to see more about the Buffalo run defense before going there though. Otherwise we are eatching chalk by the handful at RB and that could be ok. One other guy to consider that isnt friendly - is Pollard. It's a good spot for Dallas running - which includes Dak unfortunately. Elliot is out so that play will change ownership indeed. Stay tuned.
WR
There are some pivot opportunities at WR today. Kirk Brown and Hill highlight the ownership. I circled the guys who have pivot potential. Pair them to a QB and see what happens. Or just keep them in mind as we look at matchups.
TE
Kelce is way above the field in usage. Might just have to use him. No one playing Ertz due to Murray news. Tonyan is a leverage play over others at that price point. Looking down to the Defense vs receivers section, I do like that Tonyan and Kelce are in good spots as well, so I am tempted to play double TE today to get them both.
Vegas
Chicago looks to be in a good spot which brings Fields back into the mix again. Buffalo too, but Allen may not play well with his injury. Otherwise the totals dont necessarily scream high scores to me. Miami vs Cleveland appears to have potential to be the top game of the week.
Game Flow
I see that Buffalo is a strong defense but these two teams have the ability to speed up each other in terms of plays allowed and that makese that game interesting. KC vs the Jags is the next more obvious situation to target for high scoring, with two bad pass defenses involved.
Defense vs Receivers
I think I favor the TE today as mentioned. Less likely to play a RB in the flex than most, and certainly avoiding Mahommes + Ettienne lineups as that may be a combo that many land on based on ownership. Some pivit thoughts: Waddle vs Hill? (or both again..). Also could see a Lawrence stack to his top WR panning out vs paying up for Mahommes. Kelce being the runback in that case of course.
Summary
Juju usage is pretty good looking but I think one thing not accounted for is Kadarius Toney. I watched his plays last week and he is a beast, which means someone will suffer in that offense - Kelce or Juju?
Projections
The top plays are projecting well so. With so much chalk being chalk for good reasons, the construction of the entire lineup will be important this week imo. Daniel Jones is intruiging at QB because hes not getting ownership but is projecting decently for the position for a unique build and cheaper QB option.
Will look for another update today but if I dont make it, good luck!
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