It took me a long time to believe in the insights provided by my own tools. Every week I go back and look at how things turned out and every week I wonder why I'm not rich yet. Its not too late for you or me to change that.
Ceilings
As ownership shapes up, Josh Allen and Fields both share similar ceilings and ownership at QB while cousins becomes a pivot to Allen. Lamar Jackson may be the lowest owned of the top QBs today though. At RB I see a tricky situation in that Montgomery is expecting extra opportunity, with extra ownership vs Atlanta while Stevenson has had the most opportunity of the slate, but likely sharing a little with Harris. Kamara moves into a playable position on Draftkings as a pivot, if he is expecting pass game work. Finally, looking at Adams and Pittman as potential WR pivot players up top vs Diggs and Lamb. Onto the positional!
QB
There are about 5 or 6 contenders this week. Lots of value QBs out there but Kirk Cousins has the most value on his side. When looking at my player projections, Thelan is projecting ok which means he or Jefferson may be playable in a stack setting (yet not on Jefferson a ton today). The problem I think we could see is that Dallas defense is good and could get to Kirk quite often today. Fields is a no brainer for the 3rd week in a row (vs Atlanta) and Allen is always a top play. Dak Prescott and Kenny Pickett start to look like something as well, where I think if playing Ceedee Lamb, you will want to second piece to go with him in order to move up, due to the chalk nature. Dak + Ceedee Everyone else is just dart worthy.
RB
The work that Stevenson has put in has him head above heels on the field. Mixon just blew up recently and Kamara starts looking like the potential pivot to Montgomery. Najae Harris starts looking like the low owned value play today who hasnt actually done anything all year. I may take a stab at it and hope he pans out.
WR
The top WRs are pretty clear cut this week and priced that way too. The value is where it will be tricky and pivot worthy. There are some pivot options around Ceedee and Diggs. While the top chalk options have high ownership, it doesnt mean you have to pivot - but I circled the guys who have pivot potential based on their ownership projections.
TE
On this slate, Andrews and Lamar are looking like they are priced outside of the scope of reality so my first pick might be Pat Freiermuth up top this week, especially if playing Pickett (doubt I will). Same ownership and usage over the last 5 weeks as Andrews but priced way cheaper. Both Andrews and Pat are both leverage off of Schultz today.
Vegas
It seems that Chicago/Atlanta is the clear shootout game that can go over its game total. Buffalo Cleveland in a new city? Maybe. And then Dallas/Minnesota also has potential. As of now, Detroit vs NYG is intruiging to me so I may look at how I can get plays from that game to differentiate.
Chalk
I'm pulling this up not to say "avoid the chalk" but moreso to say, find your pivot. It seems Montgomery will get extra ownership and usage today so he is likely the top chalk of the week on both sites. On Fanduel, Ill say it - F that. 66% owned is ridiculous so I will full fade there, especially after seeing the offensive line vs Atl defensive line projections.
Pace and Situation
The highest paced game on the slate is looking to be the Minnesota vs Dallas game which is good for Kirk and Dak. However Dallas ranks 4th against the pass so Kirk will need to do some special things to make that work out towards a ceiling game. Minnesota defense is much more neutral. Now Buffalo on the other hand gets a good matchup for Josh Allen if healthy.
Defense vs Recievers
Gotta love it when two bad passing defenses face each other. I guess we must eat some chalk this week with Chicago and Atlanta, assuming Fields can actually pass the ball. Drake London and Mariota also look like a good pairing in the same game. Also will keep n eye on Ceedee (chalk) as well as AJ Brown this week. Amari Cooper isnt getting a lot of love but certainly looks like targets can filter his way. Olave and Mclaurin are also names to watch.
Summary
Most of this covered above but this is the cheat sheet to put it all together. Correlation between players matter and this hopefully will help find a situation or two that make sense. For example, Jacobs and the raiders get a rushing boost and potentially dominant oline and dline vs Denver. Therefore a Jacobs + Raiders defense could pair well if they both project well.
Projections and Leverage
It would seem that Jonathon Taylor is back in play again. The WRs were all mentioned before as having good spots. Maybe I just start there and build backwards this week? We will see!
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