Welcome! I have 3 separate days of research, logic and reasoning baked into this writeup to find a way we can play today's NFL tournaments on draftkings. Part 1 is from Friday, Part 2 is from Saturday and Part 3 is this morning - so as you browse this page, keep in mind that news and further research has changed some of my perspectives along the way. I plan for one more ownership update this morning.
Last updated: 10:55am CST
No real updates to report yet- I think this is it for the slate so good luck!
Part 3: Leverage the field using expected ownership projections
I asked Chatgpt to summarize this section (part 3) and this is what it gave me:
Keep reading to see how we got to these candidates.
Top projected ownership on the slate
This is my favorite part of the writeup and the part that has been the most successful over the past 3-4 weeks since I started adding it. We look at the top 3 owned plays on the slate one by one and understand that the field is on them for a reason, but also understand that they are not lock plays. Two of these plays are from Kansas City and that alone is enough to cause me anxiety in the game, but let me be clear my stance up front; that I do believe the Kansas City Chiefs should win this game, but I also think that they have a higher chance to underperform expectations than exceed them. They do not blow teams out; instead they control the clock with long drives and by playing defense. Based on ownership projections, he is 43% owned which means that there is less than 100% chance that he makes the optimal, and so you have to determine if he has greater than a 43% chance to make it or not.
So for the other 60% of lineups, what are the ways Hunt might fail today?
Passing game: Patrick Mahomes usage has been high when looking at last 3 and 5 weeks. Is it possible the Chiefs put the expected points on Carolina through the air? Yes, because while the Panthers are ranked 32nd vs the run, they are also ranked 30th vs the pass too. We are not expecting that the Panthers pass rush is going to give KC a ton of issues either. If you look closer at the DVOA chart, the Panthers are ranked 20th or worse against all receiving positions except RB, where they rank 11th. Keep in mind too that KC has rarely (outside of the Denver outlier game) given Hunt more than 2 pass targets a game, and with PPR scoring on Draftkings, that could be important.
Carolina leads early: In the same thought chain, if Carolina jumps to a lead before Hunt reaches value, Mahomes will be passing and Hunt will not likely see the target share for every reason above. In fact, the Chiefs have the worst graded CB on the slate per PFF, which is something Xavier Legette could take advantage of, especially with Adam Thielan coming back this week. 3rd on the ownership list above is Travis Kelce, whom I think is in a great spot, but since he's over 20% owned, I have to also look at what happens if he fails or at least other options too.
The bottom 4 names are not anyone I'm willing to risk it on. The two names I do want to point out though who have less than average matchups are DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy. Neither of them are seeing double digit ownership. I am leaning moreso towards Worthy today because 1. Hes lower owned and 2. deep threat ball needs to be worked on, possibly in game. Carolina does have a funnel to the deep ball as well. Interestingly I see Worthy has been 2nd most used play next to Kelce in the redzone as well. Either Hopkins or Worthy could otherwise be great leverage.
Opposing RB: I mentioned Chuba many times in this writeup as a viable play this week, and typically DFS players will not play opposing RBs in the same lineup, meaning if Hunt fails and #2 is true, then it is highly likely that Chuba Hubbard was a part of it for all the reasons listed in the previous days of this blog.
De'von Achane Fail Points
The chalk is not going to always get everything wrong, but my goal here is to find out what if they do? Achane is someone I had in this section last week when we landed on Jonnu Smith as a good pivot play (and really both were playable together I believe). The reason he is popular? I believe it is because of the belief that Miami wins the game by a touchdown and runs the clock out. Hes projecting 2nd most ownership so we have to do it again and figure out who benefits the most if he doesn't get them points expected?
Passing game: Tyreek Hill is someone I mentioned earlier as being a top projected play this week. Infact New England's biggest weak spot in the passing game is for WR1 and WR2 so even Waddle can be that guy if Tyreek's wrist becomes an issue. Any passing touchdown going to a wide receiver is one less opportunity for Achane. I will note that New England is also bad against pass catching RBs as well so he could be good there. It is also noted that they sometimes line him up as a WR3 option in the offense, where New England has been good at covering so that option is taken away.
Opposing RB: New England did show up as a team that could benefit from rushing touchdowns today, and because of that, I have to consider Rhamondre Stevenson a good potential pivot option as noted earlier in this blog. The game and team total is low enough to where I dont have many other options if playing pieces from this game environment so fading the game altogether is kinda the other idea.
It should also be noted that the Dolphins defense is currently the highest projected owned defense, meaning that if you get to a Patriot like Stevenson, anytime he scores, those owning Miami will decrease. Keep in mind though Miami is on my top 5 defenses too so they arent necessarily a fade piece.
TE Targets (and additional Travis Kelce leverage spots)
I never spend a ton of time on finding TEs, but figure we can monitor the ones I think most likely to score touchdowns today. Sanders vs KC is also a thing, whereas those playing Kelce will not likely play Ja'Tavion Sanders today. I dont think they have nearly the same ceiling though. Theres an honorable mention to Noah Gray who is becoming a priority in the redzone too if wanting I likely wont play any other TE in the field today.
Revenge Narratives, Birthdays, and other random thoughts?
1st being Noah Brown revenge narrative vs Dallas. With Washington projecting the most points on the slate, I noticed his name is in a good spot (wr2 vs Dallas defense).
2nd: couple birthdays this weekend include Tyrone Tracy, Tim Patrick, and Johnny Mundt (Minn backup TE with Josh Oliver out).
Part 2: Saturday Deeper Dive into the Slate
We have had a chance to pull our initial thoughts together, the next series is a deeper dive into the player situations with our first look at where the field is going. I updated the ownership, and can tell you that Kareem Hunt is coming in hot. I have some concerns with that, and for those who have followed this far, you know I'm a huge Chiefs fan, so saying that I might not play him for cheap is a difficult statement to start with. However lets get into the next series:
Ownership at a Player and Game Level
The top view sorts the team expectations to the ownership of the game. Houston vs Tennessee actually has the highest expectation for points based on how they have played their previous opponents. (Note this is not a projection based thing, but essentially just showing their potential for points as a team and their opponents offense). I dont trust the first game at all, but do have some interest in Baker for game 2. Will the Giants be able to make it interesting to keep Baker throwing? Maybe Baker throws like Goff did regardless of the lead? Also note now that Purdy is out. So that changes things in the SF vs GB matchup as Brandon Allen has no data included in any of the initial projections. He is min priced in a Shanahan offense but what can really be expected here when you are missing your left tackle as well?
Secondly Hunt and Achane are leading in ownership. I am surprised Meyers and Sutton are in the top 5. Geno Smith may be the highest owned QB on the slate as well so all those pieces are interesting for the pivot writeup in the morning or late tonight.
Highest Ceiling based on Workload (past 5 weeks)
This is the same chart as yesterday to identify where the workloads have been. I refreshed ownership projections and underlined the top chalk play at each position. Historically, 1 or 2 chalk plays have hit that were underlined. Not all of them hit so we do want to find pivot potentially. What is very interesting all of a sudden is that Baker -> Cade Otton are both single digits in ownership. Will they stay that way through the night? If so, that is suddenly my favorite starting stack team. Hunt is in the value zone so I would play him if I got a low owned stack with upside like that to pair with him. Looking at more recently, last 3 weeks of work:
I circled names of players that have have high expectations over the last 3 weeks, where we see a list of low owned QBs, Chuba going unowned, and several top guys who fell a little bit, like Baker and Lamb. I feel like we should be talking more about Sam Darnold because he isn't being talked about or played but we should understand why if we aren't going to play him (vs Chicago) before everyone else notices. He is also right on that target price point for a QB.
The game total and QB situation does not look good, but I think I will take a dart because there is a sharp funnel to WR2 where Addison lines up. Justin Jefferson is the best WR in the league so he is matchup proof. If theres a stack here that pans out like last week's Detroit stack, it could be here.
Next we will go position by position though to see what other options are viable at each position based on what we know today.
QB
After reviewing the top QB passing situations with the Sim'ed salary for the range, I circled the QBs who fit in that range. Mayfield is the only QB who circles all the boxes + projects as a top play on the slate. The other guys are still playable but if playing this week to the advantages, hes going to be my top play at that ownership. I see that Mahomes is half the ownership of Jayden Daniels, so that play is still interesting to me as a pivot.
Tua and Kyler are sorta below the expectations line so they would be high risk plays. However I will make a case for either as GPP darts; Tyreek Hill projects as someone who could be a top WR this week (which essentially means that WRs for Miami are in position to put up points even if it isnt him specifically). The case for Kyler is that Geno is the chalk QB right now, and so naturally he will be a pivot to the field if he outperforms Geno in the same game environment, at half the ownership. Their usage as of late is the risk, as to me they are true boom or bust.
RB
RB is where things get a bit tricky. We want to target 6700, the highest amount on RB this week. There are two spots, 3 if counting the flex to make that total. Technically the two chalkiest plays in Achane + Hunt average 6600 and make it work. I still circled the range of RBs that I think this falls into this range. Hunt going against a weak defense keeps him in play. If getting low ownership on my stack i dont mind him. I see a few pivots aligning well though here too to consider.
WR
I circled the guys who fit in the build of QBs in good spots and every single one of them project for low ownership. Infact there are several others in this range with no ownership projected. Therefore I am not sure there is a reason I would force a Meyers or Sutton in my lineup this week.
TE
As far as the TE range, there are several TEs in good spots (Kelce, Kittle, Otton), but sticking towards the price range, Sam Laporta is the best fit at 4200. DVOA suggests hes also in a good spot too, but his workload has been low as well. Maybe they will overfeed him like last week's Goff passes to St Brown?
DST
My top 5 DSTs projected are essentially all I pull from. However it must be noted that Green Bay defense vs SF might be able to capitalize on the missing left tackle and new QB coming in for SF too. I personally don't each chalk at the position but cant be mad at anyone who goes that route.
Best Offensive Line vs Defensive Line Matchups
Well new life into why Kareem might be better chalk than I initially thought. KC vs Carolina run blocking is the number one advantage on the slate today, even moreso than Detroit which is rare. Pair that with pass blocking and we can see that they might have opportunity to cause pass pressure for Carolina, and produce more touches. Carolina might be able to produce passes out of the backfield vs KC too, so there is a world where playing both still exists. Minnesota vs Chicago also looks promising for a high usage RB like Aaron Jones to find space.
WR vs CB
I am looking or guaranteed matchup situations due to where guys lineup at a high rate of the time. In pairing that with guys who are going against poorly grading CBs, two guys stand out: Demario Douglas, running 80% of his routes vs Kader Kohou, who covers the slot 61% of the time, and Ceedee vs Noah Igbinoghene, who is very poorly graded. Maybe there is something there with his workload to have Ceedee break free for a long touchdown or 2? If I build a Jayden lineup, I believe Ceedee is my first building block, as I have struggled to find a reliable target from Washington that makes sense, although McClaurin ownership is intriguing enough to try and squeeze it.
These guys are likely to run routes on the outside, and the best fit here is Mike Evans against a weak CB. Alec Pierce is also interesting too but it is much thinner of a play, where Anthony Richardson likely needs to reach him on deep passes.
Updated Optimal Lineup:
I downgraded Ceedee and that sorta changed things here. There is no stack showing but there is a double TE potentially. The issue is I may downgrade Kittle next due to his new QB situation. It is assumed he may rely on the TE more but not sure about him at all.
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Friday Night Opening thoughts
Most of the year and most of the field spend quite a bit of effort trying to identify who the top plays are. I believe one of the best ways we can attempt to differentiate this week will be to instead, try and figure out which of the top plays are going to underperform so that we can eliminate busts, which may turn out to be easier than choosing 'the winner'. My data does a good job of initially sifting through the field and pushing plays up and down, but we must go a step further to build the top lineup.
The season is running away and some of the data points couldn't be any stronger than we have now. Its time to capitalize on the tournaments with a big win by putting all the puzzle pieces together. Sunday morning I will return here and write up some pivots that can potentially throw you above the rest of the field. Before we get to leverage, we must first figure out who are the plays that we like regardless of player ownership projections. Follow my twitter for the most up to date information @ DFSedric
I asked chatgpt to summarize my research. It definitely leaves out some nuggest but if you are in a hurry, this is how it went.
Read on to see how we got there.
Workload Expectations vs Salary (last 5 weeks)
We have 3 QB situations that still have not fully materialized into the points that can be produced over the past 5 weeks; Mayfield, Mahomes, Nix; and they are all showing in the zone of value. Lamb still floating atop of the board in workload in this span, but realistically will not hit those numbers due to bad QB play. Apparently Joe Mixon is a guy they will rush for touchdowns even in winning garbage time so he is also floating high in the value range. There is one other player in the top tier who is not only in a smash spot, but showing low owned (pre Pacheco news) and thats Kareem Hunt. I do believe he will get a full workload this week since he will be able to rest next week.
Vegas Expectations vs My Team Totals and Game Projections
The goal isnt always just to find the highest games and play them. More importantly which teams can exceed the expectations. Washington shows up as a team that can put up 31 points vs Dallas, especially if they run it up like Houston did in the 4th quarter vs Dallas. The 2nd game environment I see here is the Giants vs Tampa, but this post doesn't take into account QB changes so that is less confident. Carolina, Houston, Washington, Denver, Tampa, and Arizona (forget about Dallas) are all teams I will favor when it comes to picking plays this weekend for a line. Any team projected to score over 26 points (Kansas City, Detroit, Houston, Denver, and Washington) is also in play but with caution if they go under in projections (which are Kansas City, Detroit).
San Francisco has too many injuries to key players to keep them in consideration for offensive plays.
Game Scripts we can project
When a team that is good in one area and facing a team who is defensively bad in that same space, we end up seeing extra volume. Green Bay rushing seems to be one of those cases where we can safely expect some rushing to occur, since SF is ranked 3rd against the pass AND missing Bosa and Purdy. The Giants are facing a pass funnel defense, but unfortunately they suck at passing too so far this year. Washington faces a team that is bad in both areas while they are top 10 in both areas, so assuming they will do one or the other is going to be difficult.
Defense vs Receivers
The goal here is to find the plays who might get funneled work due to opponent weaknesses. The rank of the WR impacts the player projection so if you see anything wrong here, let me know. I believe Metcalf and Mike Evans both return as of now. Green Bay is one of the toughest situations to project, but they do seem to have a clear funnel for one of their WRs ahead vs the 49ers. I will try to identify that through the WR vs CB chart ahead.
Summary of Situations
Each metric is on the left that is being measured while the right side indicates who qualified for it. The goal is to connect the dots for the most positive trends. One section I will call out since I didnt last week is the Rushing QB/RB boost section as it can have bearing on teams who might rush for touchdowns this week that are less expected. I have Tennessee - with Spears ruled out, New England who might be a pivot from Achane again, Carolina/Chuba Hubbard going against the Chiefs, and the Raiders as the 4th team. Depending on how they lay out for leverage I may refer back to one or 2 of those teams for a RB pivot.
Draftkings Projections
These are the projections by default for the main slate. I will likely lesson Lamb to some extent just because I dont think the Cowboys are even trying to win anymore, but it has to be noted that he is in a good situation for points, in a division matchup. I also see Texans are projecting as my top defense on the week. I'm surprised to see Dolphins and Cowboys and Bears up there so I will double check the data to make sure thats legit before tomorrow.
Draftkings Sims and the Simulated Results
The target GPP score to strive for is 205 points this week, with emphasis on WRs right now who can get there with the QB. We are looking roughly at 5900-6000 range for QBs who can go off. Last week, this range was where you could find Goff and Staffford as well. I will break those down in the updates later today/tonight as we ramp up on individual players that matter.
These are the names that landed the most often in the sims based on the value and upside they produced towards lineups.
Main Slate Optimal Lineup for Draftkings
Keep in mind I do not project points the way the rest of the field and services do. I try and find the upside in my projections from the start and so some players will show up that are unexpected. So what can we take from this optimal lineup? First thing I notice is that we do not have double TE showing for the first time in a few weeks. Secondly Baker, and Washington players stood out, with a hint of SF, which aligns to our earlier data points. We will spend some time today figuring out which players truly belong here and then find pivots for the rest. Who do you think is projected too high or too low?
100 DFS Optimal Lineup Breakdown
When running the optimal for 100 lineups (upgrade I worked on this week) and forced a stack, this is how things came out. Ownership again is too early to trust, but if Baker is infact 3% owned, I will likely try and get to him seeing his price point and how optimal he and Mike Evans are, although several WRs floating atop of this list with no projection adjustments made. Still surprised that Dallas defense is showing up even more than my top projected defense Houston.
As you can see that stack is sorta the core stack appearing the most often, which sorta makes it the core for me. What we must do is figure out between now and lineup lock which stacks might score more than those two combined for similar price points, and if none, take this one and find other areas to pivot.
Bookmark and return to this thread as we are just getting started. Follow me on X if you havent yet @ DFSedric
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